Trading Plan for September 18, 2012
Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):
European markets are trading -0.7% lower.
Asian markets finished mixed on the day.
US futures are trading slightly lower ahead of the opening bell.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Current Account (8:30am), Redbook (8:55am), Treasury International Capital (9am), Housing Market Index (10am)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
Inevitable pullback yesterfday, and shouldn't be a concern at this point for the bull camp.
No sign of panic yesterday during the sell-off.
Volume confirmed this by being much lighter than the volume we saw in the run-up.
Price action pulledback inside of the upper bollinger-band.
Yesterday afternoon, near the close, we saw a surge of buying, that has been indicative of market behavior during QE1 and QE2. Now that we are in QE3, look for more of this behavior to continue.
I don't think it would be surprising to see sideways trading or additional selling over the course of the next few days.
Traders have their eyes fixed on SPX 1500, but it is more likely that this market will need to cool off some before moving higher.
We are starting to come off of the short-term overbought conditions in the market.
Fed's QE3 launch is going to add a lot of buying power to this market and drive more people out of interest-bearing assets and into equities in search of some kind of return.
Going back years, there really is little in the way of resistance for the markets until it tests 1500.
Resistance at 1437 and 1440 was broken with little problem and now becomes support.
30-minute chart looks like a bull-flag pattern.
Upward trend-line off of the 6/4 lows has rising support at 1404.
SharePlanner Reversal Indicator confirmed the move higher this past week.
VIX above 14 despite yesterday's sell-off.
One area of concern is the 3 large gaps off of the 6/4 lows that remain unfilled, including 6/6, 7/26, 8/3
Should a sell-off ensue after the Fed action/comments today, look for support to come in at 1438.
If another sell-off were to ensue, watch for a break and close below 1396 for a new lower-low in the market.
My Opinions & Trades: