Trading Plan for September 24, 2012
Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):
European markets are trading down -0.8% this morning.
Asian markets finished -0.4% lower on the day.
US futures are trading moderately lower ahead of the bell.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30am), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30am)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
Friday marked yet another day of consolidation - now on day 5.
Today you will want to watch, with the pre-market weakness, whether we test and then hold the 10-day moving average. This is a classic 'reload' level for the bulls as you will notice from last Thursday.
Often times this is the first sign of defense by the bulls in a soft pullback for the market to bounce from.
30-minute chart for SPX still has upward trend intact but with consolidation over the past 5 days.
This pullback has been very healthy for the markets - orderly, low volume, and pulled us off of overbought levels as well as back inside the bollinger bands.
Fed's QE3 launch is going to add a lot of buying power to this market and drive more people out of interest-bearing assets and into equities in search of some kind of return.
Going back years, there really is little in the way of resistance for the markets until it tests 1500.
Resistance at 1437 and 1440 was broken with little problem and now becomes support.
Upward trend-line off of the 6/4 lows has rising support at 1412.
SharePlanner Reversal Indicator confirmed the move higher this past week.
VIX at 14.
One area of concern is the 3 large gaps off of the 6/4 lows that remain unfilled, including 6/6, 7/26, 8/3
If another sell-off were to ensue, watch for a break and close below 1396 for a new lower-low in the market.
My Opinions & Trades: