Trading Plan for September 25, 2012
Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):
European markets are trading 0.2% higher this morning.
Asian markets finished 0.3% higher.
US futures are trading moderately higher ahead of the bell.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Redbook (8:55am), S&P Case-Shiller HPI), Consumer Confidence (10am), FHFA House Price Index (10am), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (10am), State Street Investor Confidence Index (10am)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
Day 6 of consolidation for the markets. Still we are bull-flagging, and maintaining support above the 10-day moving average.
Once again the dip-buyers came in and supported the market, filled the gap, and pushed the market off of the day's lows.
We've come well off of overbought conditions.
With recent consolidation on low volume, and lack of any follow-through from the bears, we are setting up nicely for a nice move to the upside. Be very careful holding on to shorts positions with wide stop-losses.
A close below the 10-day moving average would change the outlook of the SPX short-term.
Often times this is the first sign of defense by the bulls in a soft pullback for the market to bounce from.
30-minute chart for SPX still has upward trend intact but with consolidation over the past 6 days.
Fed's QE3 launch is going to add a lot of buying power to this market and drive more people out of interest-bearing assets and into equities in search of some kind of return.
Going back years, there really is little in the way of resistance for the markets until it tests 1500.
Resistance at 1437 and 1440 was broken with little problem and now becomes support.
Upward trend-line off of the 6/4 lows has rising support at 1412.
SharePlanner Reversal Indicator confirmed the move higher this past week.
VIX at 14.
One area of concern is the 3 large gaps off of the 6/4 lows that remain unfilled, including 6/6, 7/26, 8/3
If another sell-off were to ensue, watch for a break and close below 1396 for a new lower-low in the market.
My Opinions & Trades: