Trading Plan for September 28, 2012
Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):
Europe is trading -0.9% lower.
Asian markets traded mixed but -1.0% lower.
US futures are trading moderately lower ahead of the bell.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Personal Income and Outlays (8:30am), Chicago PMI (9:45am), Consumer Sentiment (9:55am).
Technical Outlook (SPX):
Weakness yet again today, after getting a nice bounce to end the five straight days of selling yesterday.
1430 break (Wednesday's lows) would make for a good indication that this market wants to go much lower.
Gap-downs give the bears fits (seems counter-intuitive I know) but often times these gap-downs get bought up by the dip-buyers.
As a result, wait for the first hour of trading to pass, and if we sell off heavily in that first hour, you'll probably have your day's lows established there.
Back above the 20-day moving average, but I'm not putting much influence now on that MA.
Based on what we are seeing ahead of the open, yesterday looks like nothing more than a dead-cat bounce. Wait and see if the dip-buyers buy up this opening weakness.
30-minute chart looks much more like a dead cat-bounce into resistance.
In the short-term the market is oversold - something that hasn't happened much these days - in fact it hasn't happened since mid-July.
It is looking more and more to me that we could see us test the upward channel we have been on since the June 4th lows. At that point I'd expect that the market would bounce. If it happened today, that upward trend-line would be at 1421.
Despite all the selling we've been seeing of late, VIX is still below 15.
Best way to use moving averages should be as sentiment indicators and not a "line-in-the-sand" type of approach.
Beyond that there is some (very slight support) at 1428. More significant support lies at 1396 and 1412.
Fed's QE3 launch is going to add a lot of buying power to this market and drive more people out of interest-bearing assets and into equities in search of some kind of return.
Going back years, there really is little in the way of resistance for the markets until it tests 1500.
Upward trend-line off of the 6/4 lows has rising support at 1419.
SharePlanner Reversal Indicator confirmed the move higher this past week.
One area of concern is the 3 large gaps off of the 6/4 lows that remain unfilled, including 6/6, 7/26, 8/3
If another sell-off were to ensue, watch for a break and close below 1396 for a new lower-low in the market.
My Opinions & Trades: