Trading Plan for September 30, 2011
Current Long Positions: Netflix (NFLX) Nov 160 Calls
Current Short Positions: None
BIAS: 100% Cash
Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST):
My Observations and What to Expect: Personal Income and Outlays (8:30am), Chicago PMI (9:45am), Consumer Sentiment (9:55am)
Futures are lower by about 1% heading into the open.
Asia saw losses range from flat to -2.3%. Europe is seeing losses of roughly -1.9% today.
Bear Flag from the past two months is in full effect and force, suggesting we see a move below 1100 eventually.
The market continues to act as a dangerous place for the passive trader. Intraday day whip-saws creates gains and erases them very quickly. Take the gains when you can.
Three days in a row, the S&P has tested the 10 and 20-day moving averages and failed each time. The two converged moving averages, are acting as heaving resistance.
For the bears, the goal should be to push the market and close below 1136 today, setting up for a critical test of the 1120 and 1101 levels next week.
Support for gold is coming up on a critical long-term trend line. On GLD this is at $154.
Make sure that whatever you do, that you protect the gains that you have, and be ready for sudden and quick reversals in this market.
The bears have yet to successfully trade AND close below 1120 on the S&P. There is continued buying support at these levels. Should this level eventually break, watch 1114, and then 1101 for additional support.
My Conclusion: We're heading lower, or at least that is what the charts are forecasting. Moves higher, both intraday and daily, should be used as selling/shorting opportunities.
Here Are The Actions I'm Taking: