Trading Plan for September 8, 2011
Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): QCOM Oct 60 Calls, AAPL Sept 420 Calls
Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): BKU (23.65), VIP (10.68)
BIAS: 20% Short
Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): International Trade (8:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (9:45am), Quarterly Services Survey (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (11am), BernankeSpeaks (1pm), Consumer Credit (3pm), Jobs Speech (7pm)
My Observations and What to Expect:
Futures are moderately lower heading into the open.
Asian traded in a mixed fashion, Europe is about 1% lower, on average.
Morning star formation formed over the last three days (bullish).
The underside of the rising trend-line that started back on July '09 has been creating some resistance for the market over the past few weeks. Today it is at 1219.
S&P is trading in a well defined channel off of the 8/9 lows as well. However, it leads me to believe it is more of a bearish flag pattern than anything else - a break below 1140 would confirm the pattern and likely start the next leg down.
Price action from yesterday saw the bulls reclaim the 10 and 20-day MA's.
The rally could take us back up as high as 1240's before seeing the downward trend resume itself.
Notice the first bullish MA crossover in months occurring between the 10 and 20 MA's.
My Conclusion: I think the rally we saw yesterday was in conjunction with a 'buy the Obama jobs speech' and either today or tomorrow, we'll likely see a resumption of the sell-off.
Here Are The Actions I'm Taking: