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alstry (36.32)

Truly an Amazing Time.......on the brink or time to drink???

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April 24, 2009 – Comments (17)

A record number of our citzens are losing their jobs and/or on the brink of bankruptcy.

A record number of our homes being foreclosed.

A record number of our corporations on the brink of bankruptcy.

A record number of our cities on the brink of bankruptcy

A record number of our states in dire financial crisis

Our hospitals are seeing their revenues evaporate

Same with out school systems

And our government creates a stress test that has no meaning because it is lying about unemployment rates while at the same time clandestinely  forcing executives of companies to take actions adverse to the owners interests without due process or

At this rate 70-90% of America will be bankrupt in 12-24 months DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE LEVERAGE OF THE NON FEDERAL AMERICAN ECONOMY.

At the CURRENT RATE of job losses.....unemployment will EXCEED 30% BY THE END OF THE YEAR.

Time for a Bloody.

17 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 24, 2009 at 4:00 PM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

The National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) today assumed control of the operations of Eastern Financial Florida Credit Union, a state-chartered, federally insured credit union headquartered in Miramar, Florida.
...
Eastern Financial Florida Credit Union was originally chartered in 1937 and today serves Broward, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, Hillsborough, Pinellas counties and the Jacksonville area. The credit union has approximately $1.6 billion in assets and just over 200,000 members.

The National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) is the independent federal agency that charters and supervises federal credit unions. NCUA, with the backing of the full faith and credit of the U.S. government...

 

Apple cutting 1,600 jobs

Advesre forecast predicts 10.3% 2010 unemployment .....whoops, we are at 16.2% right now.

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#2) On April 24, 2009 at 4:05 PM, RonChapmanJr (33.19) wrote:

I posted this on a previous blog, but you write so often I am not sure you saw it.  The numbers you are using to forecast unemployment are incorrect.  You are saying that 600,000+ a week are losing their jobs.  That number is 600,000+ per month.  Unemployment will get higher but the 30% you predict will require an increase in monthly job losses, not simply a continuation of the current rate. 

ron

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#3) On April 24, 2009 at 4:12 PM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

I answered you on that previous blog....

initial jobless claims

What exactly? A measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance.

http://www.thestreet.com/tsc/basics/tscglossary/initialjoblessclaims.html

What exactly are they teaching you guys at Harvard?

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#4) On April 24, 2009 at 4:23 PM, RonChapmanJr (33.19) wrote:

They teach us more than you apparently learned in law school.  :)  I guess you are just glancing over the information you are reading because I know you are smart enough to understand this information.

The US lost about 700,000+ jobs in March and now you are saying that we are going to lose/lost 2,400,000+ in April?  The original article you were talking about was not saying what you think it was saying.  Reread it so that you can get back to promoting the "facts".

ron

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#5) On April 24, 2009 at 4:37 PM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

No silly goose.  When you are saying 700K jobs...that is a U3 net statistic.  What happens is people are eligible for unemployment benefits for a fixed period of time, often 26 weeks with potential for extension.

For the purpose of this explanation, let's just stick w/26 weeks.  At the end of 26 weeks, a certain number of people fall off the rolls and not counted anymore even though they are still unemployed.

I find this number misleading, because just like pregnancy, you are either unemployed or not.  The 700K number you use is a net number of the new people who are unemploymed MINUS those that fall off the rolls either due to finding a job or expiring unemployment benefits.  There are a large number that fall off due to expiring benefits.

The U6 Dept of Labor unemployment number picks up those that falls off and in my opinion is closer to the real rate of unemployment....hence my quoting it at 16.2%.

The stat you and I are debating is the number of NEW people filing for state unemployment benefits called:

US weekly initial jobless claims up 27K to 640K

At this pace, approximately 2.5 million NEW people are filing for unemployment benefits each month.

Just to be serious for a second, I hope this clarifies the issue for you....if you have any corrections or clarifications.....I love to know when I am wrong and/or creating a misleading impression.

Thanks.

Back to being Alstry.....you may want to ask Harvard for at least a partial refund.

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#6) On April 24, 2009 at 4:48 PM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

Georgia's American Southern Bank seized by FDIC; 26th bank to close in '09

And the beat goes on and on and on and on and on and on.....

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#7) On April 24, 2009 at 5:09 PM, ClandPhoenix (80.15) wrote:

Why is everyone so scared of unemployment. I keep seeing statistics posted U3, U6 but the reality is when I log on to Careerbuilder there are at least twenty jobs posted the same day that I would have a good chance of getting.

Even those with no post secondary education can find entry-level positions posted there.

Consider these two things

1) The unemployment rate during the great depression was higher than it is now

2) In the 1930s people were not so picky about about what job they took like the unskilled bums we have today who refuse to take a job that pays them what the market demand for their skill set is

If you accept my premis then this downturn, recession, depression is laughable in comparisson to the Great Depression and has no chance of causing the far fetched catastrophy your always raving about.

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#8) On April 24, 2009 at 5:14 PM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

Actually, if you compare the current state to the worst of The Great Depression, you are correct.  However, if you compare the current state to the equivelent time frame in The Great Depression, things are much worse now.

Right now we are at 16.2% unemployment....we don't have much further to go to exceed The Great Depression peak.

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#9) On April 24, 2009 at 5:16 PM, dbjella (< 20) wrote:

I am not sure where I stand on what the true number is for unemployment, but all I know is that when my wife was collecting unemployment she didn't want to take a job and the gov't extended her benefits twice. 

If you pay people to not work...well they won't work.

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#10) On April 24, 2009 at 5:16 PM, RonChapmanJr (33.19) wrote:

This isn't a U3 vs U6 argument (I haven't followed that discussion closely, but I think I have a decent grasp of the difference).  My argument is that you are using the numbers incorrectly.  Taking these weekly jobless claim numbers and saying that they represent the pace of job losses is not accurate. 

Using these weekly claim numbers in this way would indicate that about 10,000,000 people have lost their jobs since the beginning of 2009 which I do not believe.  In an effort to be on the same page, are you saying that 10 mil people have lost their jobs in 2009?

ron

 

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#11) On April 24, 2009 at 5:25 PM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

What the government is saying is approximately 9,000,000 people have filed for unemployment benefits in 2009 per weekly new claims.

The government is also saying that approximatly 25-30 million people are currently unemployed per U6 numbers and a 160-170 million labor force.

If you include independent contactors, Alstrynomics estimates the number is closer to 35,000,000 as functionally unemployed.

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#12) On April 24, 2009 at 5:43 PM, OctoStalin (36.80) wrote:

The quality of life is extremely good in America compared to almost any other country or time in history.

No statistic can change this.

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#13) On April 24, 2009 at 5:48 PM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

If your neighbor has lost their job, it is a recession.

If you lose your job, it is a recession.

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#14) On April 24, 2009 at 5:52 PM, RonChapmanJr (33.19) wrote:

You are being a good lawyer and avoiding the question, but I'll ask it again.  :) 

In an effort to be on the same page, are you saying that 10 million people have lost their jobs just in 2009?

Clarification on this is important.

ron

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#15) On April 24, 2009 at 6:00 PM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

Yes.  Something like 9 or 10 million depending exactly what the weekly numbers have been times the number of weeks ending this week.

Ron,  for  what its worth...I do respect what you say and what you do....but not necessarily agree with some of your conclusions or solutions.

that said, reasonable people can look at the same set of facts and differ with their conclusions.

With regard to your question in comment #14....the 9 or 10 million is a fact, not a conclusion.

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#16) On April 24, 2009 at 6:27 PM, RonChapmanJr (33.19) wrote:

Thanks.  I think we are both trying to get people prepared.

However, we are still debating conclusions at this point, not facts. 

The number of new weekly unemployment claims is a fact (until the govt revises it).  How many job losses that equals is a conclusion.  So yes, we are taking different facts (new unemployment claims) and coming to different conclusions (the number of people who lost their job in a given period). 

While I think it is bad out there and getting worse, I do not believe that 10,000,000 people have lost their jobs in the first 4 months of this year.  While wanting to prepare people I also think they should know whether they are getting facts or conclusions drawn from facts.

ron

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#17) On April 24, 2009 at 11:05 PM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

Based on your response, then the only fact I can give you is that according to the government, about 9 to 10 million people have filed for unemployment claims since the year began.

Since last year, U6 unemployment has increased about 8%.  With approximately 150-170million people in the workforce......we are talking about well over ten million people who have been unemployed since last year.

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