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Turtle Crawl



April 13, 2010 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: JOSB.DL , NVEC , IDCC


So they way I see it, over the past two and a half months, the market has completely turtle crawled up from basically 10,000 on the DJIA to 11,000.  On a chart I'm also seeing it being near a resistance level.

I'm not expecting this turtle crawl rally to break out and all of a sudden the market is at 12,000.  If anything, I think any volatility would be to the downside, just like what happened during the mid January to mid February sell off.  Therefore I think the market could go back to 10,000, much easier than 12,000, in the short term.

So of course, upon this rally I'm locking in gains now, with the hopes of buying these stocks back at lower prices in the future.

Profits today were taken on many of my previous picks of:
JOSB (a huge winner since my writing!)

While most of those were investments that I'd like to get back into at some point, along with taking those profits, I've placed an order to short PALM again as a side-bet in the market. I haven't been filled yet, because apparently the stock is hard to borrow now.  WSJ had an article today about how they've hired an investment banker, looking for a possible acquirer.  The way I see it, like any company wants to throw away their money on PALM, which I don't believe has much of a future, and upon the speculation of a take-over the stock rallied pretty good for the past week up until today. 


3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 13, 2010 at 4:59 PM, leohaas (30.11) wrote:

"So they way I see it, over the past two and a half months, the market has completely turtle crawled up from basically 10,000 on the DJIA to 11,000."

Is that a turtle crawl? 10% up in two and a half months? Do you know that that means over 50% annualized? In my world, that is the speed of a hare! I'll take your turtle crawl any time...

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#2) On April 14, 2010 at 8:36 AM, lemoneater (56.97) wrote:

@#1 :) Yes, I feel like an out-of-breath turtle. It has been nice to have a portifolio mostly in the green.

RK, how would you describe the kind of trader that you are? I think expectations can be very different depending one's trading style. I'm an amateur buy and hold investor with mostly dividend stocks and just a few volatile growth stocks for fun.

Turtle or hare what I'm hoping for is strong job recovery. Have a nice day!


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#3) On May 06, 2010 at 5:48 PM, rknapton (51.76) wrote:



You completely missed my point I guess.  


Yeah, up 10% in two in a half months.  Of course that is a great rally.  But there was no volatility on that.  It literally basically averaged with out much volatility, going up about 15pts a day on the DJIA.  I'd definitely call that a crawl.  Climbing a wall of worry so to speak.


So again, my bet was that when some volatility returned, it was more likely to bring the market down rather than a huge rally on top of the past 2.5 months.


Today some volatility hit.  Dow was down over 1000 for just a little bit, and even went under 10,000 for just a tiny little bit.  I purchased back some of those very same positions I had sold the day I wrote the "Turtle Crawl" (amongst others), such as:

USU, TC, NM, PETS, QDEL, BOLT, FHCO, TEX, USO, ETFC, CHBT, and HANS (which I sold right after it recovered to near the pre-crash levels)


Was nice to have the extra cash just sitting there, ready for a day like today.   :)



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