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Two more bottoms for a perfect 10, and the first 2010 GBMB buy



January 22, 2010 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: RTIX , AUXL.DL , BDSI

RTI Biologics (RTIX) - market cap 178M, share price 3.28. Cash 20M, debt 11M. Profit 1-2M each quarter. Since climbing out of the universal spring slump, the share price maxed out at 5 and hasn't dropped substantially until now. Revenues have been steadily increasing despite the recession and the next quarterly numbers are due Feb 9. There is no reason to expect a revenue drop now given the strong numbers all through 2009, yet weak numbers seem to be priced into the share price. No recent 99.8+ activity on CAPS. The current declining trend would suggest caution to a prudent bottom-grabber. Consider GBMB buy if stabilizing below 3 prior to Feb 9 revenues.

Auxilium Pharmaceuticals (AUXL) - market cap 1340M, share price 28.51. Cash 192M, debt 0. Burn 12-15M/quarter. The share price is now substantially lower than when an FDA advisory panel unanimously recommended approval of Xiaflex for Dupuytren's contracture in Sep 09. The PDUFA is delayed without comment but so what - we've seen approvals out of the blue after delayed PDUFA's several times in recent years. A bottom-grabber doesn't like floating catalysts, but this price has dropped SO much. Top Fools are ignoring Auxilium. GBMB buy under 28. 

Today I bought 5000 shares of BioDelivery Sciences at 3.95. That's a fairly large move for me but I'm feeling confident in my strategy and especially in this stock for reasons outlined here. The bull market is showing signs of strain and I'm trying to shift my investments in the market-neutral direction. Of the 200 biotechs I follow (about 100 closely) I believe BDSI is currently the most undervalued for future prospects. I've been wrong before - now everyone will know if I'm eating cat food by the end of the year. If the market plunges and several thresholds are met at once, I likely won't buy multiple GBMB stocks simultaneously. Better to pause, refresh, and re-evaluate. We want to have dry powder if we're headed back to March 2009. 

5 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 22, 2010 at 8:44 AM, engstocker (54.68) wrote:

GBMB? Whats that mean?

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#2) On January 22, 2010 at 9:52 AM, GNUBEE (< 20) wrote:

Great Big Mega Buy?

Green Bean Multi Bake?

Ground Breaking Meat Bag?

Giant Brown Momma Bear?

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#3) On January 22, 2010 at 1:54 PM, sirwanksalot (< 20) wrote:

Thanks for the update, Picked up a 1000 shares of BDSI @ $3.89.



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#4) On January 22, 2010 at 3:49 PM, Ummba (< 20) wrote:

Gimme Back My Bullets

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#5) On January 22, 2010 at 7:00 PM, zzlangerhans (99.77) wrote:

@ #3: Best of luck to us, but buyer beware. I have been much more successful with investments based on my own DD than I have with those based on Top Fool green thumbs. And I'm a far cry from a Top Fool. Those ratings are very deceptive ...

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