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Ultralong WHO? (One man's garbage is another man's treasure) Part 2

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February 08, 2013 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: GAR.DL2 , BA , GE

Back in July 2011, I had a post Ultralong who? (click on the link on the left to see it) , in which I reviewed 4 stocks that Ultralong (former Top Foll and consistently highly-rated CAPS player) and I disagreed about back in 2009 or 2010.

Actually, we did not just disagree, he called these picks of mine absolute garbage.

Well, let's take now another look at these 4 stocks and see how they've performed so far (if any of them went belly up as UL was predicting):

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Stock # 1      GTN (Gray Television Inc.)

#16) On September 25, 2009 at 5:21 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.99) wrote:

Hope you have a deep checkbook if you're backing stocks like GTN

UltraLong

#17) On September 25, 2009 at 9:31 AM, dragonLZ (99.36) wrote:

UL, unfortunately, I don't have a deep checkbook..., but I did go to a Chinese restaurant 2 days ago, and you know what my fortune cookie said? Don't be hasty, prosperity will knock on your door soon. :)

 

So what happened with GTN?

On October 02, 2009, GTN was at $2.05 – it’s at $4.34 today. Return: +112%

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Stock# 2    NCT (Newcastle Investment Inc.)

#9) On October 09, 2009 at 12:54 AM, dragonLZ (99.38) wrote:

UL, I have 3 letters for you: NCT. When GTN gets to $3 in a matter of days, I promise I'll explain to you what that means... :)

#10) On October 09, 2009 at 1:16 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.99) wrote:

Newcastle? You really do like near-bankrupt companies, don't you?

UltraLong

#11) On October 09, 2009 at 1:34 AM, dragonLZ (99.38) wrote:

Yes on NCT (I'll explain what I meant by it when the time comes).

No, on the second question. I don't like any companies (not profitable ones and not near-bankrupt ones) , but I do like promising stocks...(there is a difference between a company and its stock).

 

So what happened with NCT?

On October 09, 2009, NCT was at $3.03 – today at $10.75. Return: +255% 

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Stock# 3    SRZ (Sunrise Senior Living Inc.)

Here are comments from my post ‘Did you catch SRZ’s 44% move?’:

#1) On October 11, 2009 at 2:16 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.99) wrote:

Yeah its on my short list along with like 3 dozen other tickers right now

UltraLong

#3) On October 11, 2009 at 5:50 PM, dragonLZ (99.38) wrote:

UltraLong, I took my daughter to McDonalds today, and you know what creature was featured on her Happy Meal box: DRAGONOID.

It said: DRAGONOID is the powerful leader of the Baukugan. Highly intelligent, he can radiate intense heat in battle.Just mentioning this as a friendly warning.

Shorting dragon's picks might not be the best idea. You might get severely burned (by intense heat)... :)

 

So what happened with SRZ?

On October 11, 2009, SRZ was at $4.77 – today (aquired last year) at $14.48.  Return: +204%

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Stock# 4     ZLC (Zale Corp.)

#2) On March 28, 2010 at 1:43 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.99) wrote:

Ok, let's analyze the true disaster that is Zales Corp.

…Here's my problem with the above statements. One, Zales does not sell a luxury item. They sell a deep discount fashion items in most cases and they have done a very poor job of that for 3 years. Their inventory problems are the worst in the industry. They have consistently tried to restructure their debts unsuccessfully and most vendors will only deal with Zales on a Cash On Demand basis, an insult in the jewelry world. Zales has gone through FIVE CEO's in the past 8 years and their most recently departed CEO completely detached them from their roots by bringing in more non-industry upper management than trained diamanteers. Their margins have dropped through the floor, the debt is in serious question with a very high probability of default and 15% of stores looks like a starting target in terms of closings. They are losing customers like mad and their losses show this. Zales is one of the strongest bankruptcy candidates in the stock market if you ask me. I think you've got to be sadistic to buy into a company in the midst of a death spiral.

UltraLong

#11) On March 30, 2010 at 3:01 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.99) wrote:

Zales....Battleship sunk!

UltraLong

#12) On March 30, 2010 at 3:45 PM, dragonLZ (99.38) wrote:

No UL, that's not the case here. ZLC's battleship is actually a super-secret stealthy submarine. Now it's just going to hide under water for a while...to trick the enemy.When it resurfaces again, the revenge is gonna be sweeeeet....

 

So, what happened with ZLC?

On March 30, 2010, ZLC was at $2.63 – toady at $4.95. Return: +88%.

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So, once again, when we look at the scoreboard of this garbage-picking game, the score says:

UltraLong 0, Garbage Stocks 4

Or, in other words, if one invested the same amount of money in all four of these stocks at the time of UL’s and my discussions, that person would now sit on a roughly 165% gain for the whole portfolio (+112%, +255%, +204%, and +88%).

Not too shaby, so far.

Until next time, Good Luck to all Fools.

p.s.

If any of you see Ultralong, could you please tell him I'm looking for him to give him a T-shirt that says: Got garbage? :)

p.s.

UL is my well respected friend. This is not a malicious post in any way. Just funny.

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 08, 2013 at 4:16 PM, EnigmaDude (85.38) wrote:

Now that's what I call trash talking!

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#2) On February 08, 2013 at 11:25 PM, ath002 (< 20) wrote:

Congratulations LordZ

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#3) On February 08, 2013 at 11:32 PM, Tagit (43.79) wrote:

As in the case with DDS - check charts.

But, with all do respect I'd probably hit the red key now.

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#4) On February 09, 2013 at 12:41 AM, awallejr (75.88) wrote:

Well I had many a fun argument with Ultralong.  But in all fairness pretty much anything you picked after March 2009 has made impressive gains.  In fact NCT was my Chimp contest haiku pick but timing at the time did suck.  But as time went by the restored dividends did help.

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#5) On February 20, 2013 at 5:21 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

I'm glad you and I agreed "some of the time".  :)  Poor BPG!  :)

I'd hate to be getting a regular spanking from you three years later!!!

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/lets-do-an-investing/358454

Are you still analyzing your chart eyeballing and getting ready to jump in with both feet on the next crash!!!  :)

PS, Julia's turning 4 soon, did you give her a little brother/sister??

All the best,

TSIF 

 

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#6) On March 07, 2013 at 12:21 AM, dragonLZ (99.35) wrote:

Wow, I forgot to follow this post. Thank you all for commenting.

TSIF, thanks a lot for stopping by - it's been a while.

Yes, good for you sometimes you agreed with me. :)

However, I have to admit that most of the time when you disagreed, you turned out to be right.

I'm very impressed you also turned out to be right on the 3 stocks from my "investing experiment" you linked to. Good job. For real.

When it comes to chart eyeballing, I did refine it a little bit, and next time the market crashes, I will use it only in connection with some basic fundamentals (even though you were wrong about some of my picks, I know now I should've listened to you when you were saying that not all stocks that have spikes on high volume are good stocks).

And yes, Julia will be 5 (not 4 - time flies) this week. No brothers or sisters yet (and I don't think that's going to happen).

Happy Birthday to you too. I think it's  2-3 days before or after Julia's birthday, if I remember correctly.

All the best to you too.

Also congratulations on your score. I remember when both of us where struggling to get to 2,000 points. I'm finally there (for the 5th time), while you managed to get one extra zero in your score. Well done, my e-friend.

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#7) On March 08, 2013 at 6:43 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Yes, I'm getting older too!  The wife surprised me and roasted me this year.  She invited some relatives to come visit!  What a birthday present taking them back to the airport in the snow!!!  :)

Personally, I'm still learning, but I'm slowing down.  I don't have enough conviction on my "good calls" and you can't often beat the street at their games. 

We would have made a good team, maybe next crash!  (After your 5 year bull run).

Take care. 

 

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