dragonLZ (99.34)

Ultralong WHO? (One man's garbage is another man's treasure) Part 2

February 08, 2013 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: GAR , BA , GE

Back in July 2011, I had a post Ultralong who? (click on the link on the left to see it) , in which I reviewed 4 stocks that Ultralong (former Top Foll and consistently highly-rated CAPS player) and I disagreed about back in 2009 or 2010.

Actually, we did not just disagree, he called these picks of mine absolute garbage.

Well, let's take now another look at these 4 stocks and see how they've performed so far (if any of them went belly up as UL was predicting):

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Stock # 1      GTN (Gray Television Inc.)

#16) On September 25, 2009 at 5:21 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.99) wrote:

Hope you have a deep checkbook if you're backing stocks like GTN

UltraLong

#17) On September 25, 2009 at 9:31 AM, dragonLZ (99.36) wrote:

UL, unfortunately, I don't have a deep checkbook..., but I did go to a Chinese restaurant 2 days ago, and you know what my fortune cookie said? Don't be hasty, prosperity will knock on your door soon. :)

So what happened with GTN?

On October 02, 2009, GTN was at $2.05 – it’s at $4.34 today. Return: +112%

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Stock# 2    NCT (Newcastle Investment Inc.)

#9) On October 09, 2009 at 12:54 AM, dragonLZ (99.38) wrote:

UL, I have 3 letters for you: NCT. When GTN gets to $3 in a matter of days, I promise I'll explain to you what that means... :)

#10) On October 09, 2009 at 1:16 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.99) wrote:

Newcastle? You really do like near-bankrupt companies, don't you?

UltraLong

#11) On October 09, 2009 at 1:34 AM, dragonLZ (99.38) wrote:

Yes on NCT (I'll explain what I meant by it when the time comes).

No, on the second question. I don't like any companies (not profitable ones and not near-bankrupt ones) , but I do like promising stocks...(there is a difference between a company and its stock).

So what happened with NCT?

On October 09, 2009, NCT was at $3.03 – today at $10.75. Return: +255% 

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Stock# 3    SRZ (Sunrise Senior Living Inc.)

Here are comments from my post ‘Did you catch SRZ’s 44% move?’:

#1) On October 11, 2009 at 2:16 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.99) wrote:

Yeah its on my short list along with like 3 dozen other tickers right now

UltraLong

#3) On October 11, 2009 at 5:50 PM, dragonLZ (99.38) wrote:

UltraLong, I took my daughter to McDonalds today, and you know what creature was featured on her Happy Meal box: DRAGONOID.

It said: DRAGONOID is the powerful leader of the Baukugan. Highly intelligent, he can radiate intense heat in battle.Just mentioning this as a friendly warning.

Shorting dragon's picks might not be the best idea. You might get severely burned (by intense heat)... :)

So what happened with SRZ?

On October 11, 2009, SRZ was at $4.77 – today (aquired last year) at $14.48.  Return: +204%

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Stock# 4     ZLC (Zale Corp.)

#2) On March 28, 2010 at 1:43 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.99) wrote:

Ok, let's analyze the true disaster that is Zales Corp.

…Here's my problem with the above statements. One, Zales does not sell a luxury item. They sell a deep discount fashion items in most cases and they have done a very poor job of that for 3 years. Their inventory problems are the worst in the industry. They have consistently tried to restructure their debts unsuccessfully and most vendors will only deal with Zales on a Cash On Demand basis, an insult in the jewelry world. Zales has gone through FIVE CEO's in the past 8 years and their most recently departed CEO completely detached them from their roots by bringing in more non-industry upper management than trained diamanteers. Their margins have dropped through the floor, the debt is in serious question with a very high probability of default and 15% of stores looks like a starting target in terms of closings. They are losing customers like mad and their losses show this. Zales is one of the strongest bankruptcy candidates in the stock market if you ask me. I think you've got to be sadistic to buy into a company in the midst of a death spiral.

UltraLong

#11) On March 30, 2010 at 3:01 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.99) wrote:

Zales....Battleship sunk!

UltraLong

#12) On March 30, 2010 at 3:45 PM, dragonLZ (99.38) wrote:

No UL, that's not the case here. ZLC's battleship is actually a super-secret stealthy submarine. Now it's just going to hide under water for a while...to trick the enemy.When it resurfaces again, the revenge is gonna be sweeeeet....

So, what happened with ZLC?

On March 30, 2010, ZLC was at $2.63 – toady at $4.95. Return: +88%.

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So, once again, when we look at the scoreboard of this garbage-picking game, the score says:

UltraLong 0, Garbage Stocks 4

Or, in other words, if one invested the same amount of money in all four of these stocks at the time of UL’s and my discussions, that person would now sit on a roughly 165% gain for the whole portfolio (+112%, +255%, +204%, and +88%).

Not too shaby, so far.

Until next time, Good Luck to all Fools.

p.s.

If any of you see Ultralong, could you please tell him I'm looking for him to give him a T-shirt that says: Got garbage? :)

p.s.

UL is my well respected friend. This is not a malicious post in any way. Just funny.