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Unaffected sectors

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October 04, 2008 – Comments (0)

A lot of what I'm still holding hasn't been hit very hard by the last few days - I'm still holding steady at about a 5% loss over the last year, all told - and so when I look around at what I dumped two weeks ago and what I've been keeping an eye on for the last two years, the carnage is sort of surprising.

Here are some stocks that haven't been affected at all:

BRK - the countertrend financial

PG, KMB - their share prices haven't budged through all this carnage

COST, WMT - They haven't budged either, although frankly I'm surprised.

BMY, and some of its colleagues in the pharm sector.  Largely unscathed, although the best of breeds are doing better. 

Here are some stocks that are well under what I would have considered buying them for a month ago:

YUM - in the last 2 weeks it lost every dime of its considerable gains since I started following it two years ago

NILE - it's getting back to sleepy Seattle-area jeweler valuation

MMM - I had $77 as a buy point, started my buy in, waited for the technicals to come around, they never did, sold at $69, it's down to 64.  The stock is starting to look like a dividend play.

FCX - I guess there's no limit to how far this football can be kicked, but it's also starting to look like a dividend play.  Political instability in Indonesia needs to be factored in, though - the place is a mess.  I'd still like to know more about its current gold and copper hedge positions, if any.

AAPL - the current price is insane.  I am buying all the way down.

And here is a list of things I wouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole:

Any bank, insurance agency, financial, REIT, or homebuilder other than BRK.  The rules keep changing.  When the rules are clear again, maybe I'll consider investing again.  Or when I get Hank Paulson on the red phone.  I envision him doing a Heidi Klum, telling me (and the rest of the world) who is "in" - and who is "out."

GE - Immelt is a lying liar who lied on 9/25 about not needing capital and sold out to BRK 4 days later to common equity's detriment.  I'm glad my GE position was a 2-day trade.  If I shorted stock, I'd short GE right now at $21.  Take that to the bank.  If you can find a bank.

PM,MO - these have been classic defensive plays but anti-tobacco sentiment is starting to gain worldwide traction.  So far these stocks have barely been touched but I feel the worm may turn.

Any broad market index.  At this point the S+P 500, in my mind, is what everyone used to say about the equity tranche - it's full of toxic waste.

And here is a short list of names that I am gritting my teeth and riding to the bottom, because I think I know more than the market seems to:

KNM, GHM, and GM.

Yes, GM.  Go ahead, point and laugh.  I think they'll turn this around.  As Peter Lynch used to say, just because the stock goes down doesn't mean you're wrong. 

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