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Unemployment now (or soon) at 4.4% ??

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December 27, 2013 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: TBT , GDX , GLD

As of tomorrow, 12/28, Long-Term Unemployment (up to 99 weeks in many cases) becomes a thing of the past.  Here's what I have yet to have someone explain to me (any takers, please??) . . . 

 If our Unemployment rate is currently 7.0%, and the Long-Term Unemployment (included in the 7.0%) is 2.6%, then our Unemployment rate drops to 4.4%, right?

I can't imagine that the Long-Term Unemployment was never included in the 7.0%, and they drop off tomorrow.  Won't that bring euphoria (dare I say, exuberance) to the markets?!? 

3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 28, 2013 at 1:41 AM, jiltin (22.22) wrote:

I read this

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/12/27/long-term-unemployment-is-still-a-disaste...

 

Statement 1:

 

There are currently about 4 million people who have been out of work for 27 weeks or longer.

 

Statement 2:

 

This Saturday, Dec. 28, an emergency unemployment insurance program will expire, immediately cutting off jobless benefits for 1.3 million workers who have been unemployed for longer than 26 weeks.

 

If USG/FED is accounting jobless based on  long term unemployment, it becomes suddenly 4.7% jobless by Feb 2014.

 

Current declared jobless 7% = 4 Millions,    Hence, 100% workforce = 57.14M

 

By Feb 2014, jobless is 2.7M, which is 2.7 * 100 / 57.14 = 4.72%

 

FED is to go for MBS withdrawal and interest rate hike immediately ( earlier than expected 2014 end ). 

 

Is this correct?

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#2) On December 28, 2013 at 7:48 AM, ozzie (99.95) wrote:

A great video on the subject, from John Stossel:

http://www.foxbusiness.com/on-air/stossel/blog/category/unemployment/

Indicates with near certainty that extended unemployment leads to dependence on unemployment benefits.  Jersey Shore Lifeguards get unemployment during non-Summer months?  Really??  

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#3) On January 10, 2014 at 3:15 PM, ozzie (99.95) wrote:

The first BLS Employment report after I posted this has the Unemployment rate already down from 7% to 6.7%, with only 3 days from the cancelling of Long-Term unemployment (12/28) and the end of December.  Logic dictates the number will drop again precipitously (perhaps moreso) in February - to something well under 6.5%.  We'll see.  Again, if my math is right, we "normalize", "eventually", at 4.4%.

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