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alstry (35.28)

Up 2 Ninety Percent of CAPs Players WILL BE ZOMBULATED!!!!

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May 30, 2009 – Comments (17)

Zombulation=spending down ALL of ones savings and access to credit or being taxed 100% or your income and net worth by government.  Either way you have no money....

Up to 90%?????  Under current policies being implemented by the Fed and Washington and applying Alstrynomic's Cencentric Contraction Theory....it is mathematically CERTAIN!!!!!!!

We now have 1/8 mortgages LATE or in FORECLOSRE!!!!!!  and home prices CRASHING!!!!!!!!  soon it will be 1/4 and then 1/2.

Millions of Jobs Lost and Tens of Millions wages cut or benefits lost with over 70% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck with little savings!!!!!

Corporation after corporation slowing or shutting down...Visteon on Thursday....Donnelly on Friday....GM on Monday......are just a few biggies!!!!!

Our GOVERNMENT IS BROKE and it MUST DOUBLE taxes or else practically shut down the health care system and take away the entire income source for MILLIONS!!!!!!  This is not an option....it is just when!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We now have Ghost Towns!!!!

We now have Ghost Malls!!!!

And now appearing accross the nation is Ghost Office Buildings!!!!!!!!!

More than 50 office buildings stand empty or virtually empty in Northern Virginia, with 46 lying beyond the Beltway.
http://washington.bizjournals.com/washington/stories/2009/06/01/story2.html?b=1243828800%5E1835406

That is about a hundred in N Virginia alone in what remains a relatively strong economy.  OUCH!!!

Houses, Malls, and Office Building becoming dinosours of an insane lending era past...combined making up the single largest asset class in America crashing in value where land in many cases is basically worthless securing tens of trillions of dollars of loans that will NEVER be able to be satisfied.

At this point...Real Estate Values HAVE crashed so much that if you sold off ALL the real estate and applied EVERY DIME of EVERY SAVER in America...it would likely not be sufficient to pay down the debt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

REAL ESTATE CURRENTLY IS IN A STATE OF ZOMBULATION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Today, much of America simply functions off spending down its savings or borrowing money to survive...including citizens, corporations, and governments.  As zombulation spreads via the FU virus....the economy systematically shuts down.

With asset values crashing and incomes evaporating with access to credit becoming harder and harder...we are on a crash course to TOTAL zombulation.....it is not if anymore...simply when!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now the question is what steps is the Fed and Government taking for MASS ZOMBULATION?????

When Banks start cutting off existing borrowers or states discontinue entitlement payments...the game is over for many and you better be prepaid for the fallout.

May 30 (Bloomberg) -- World Bank President Robert Zoellick warned policy makers that fiscal-stimulus plans are insufficient to turn around the “real economy” and rising joblessness threatens to set off political unrest across the globe.

It is not just Alstrynomics that sees this....there are a number of very intelligent people that see what is conceptually a very simple problem....Katrina anyone?????

Welcome to the AGE OF ZOMBULATION.....Alstry has been warning you of its coming....it is now upon us...

By the way.....for the mathematically challenged, if your dollar buys you half as much and your income remains the same....it is just like the government taxing HALF your income....

Ask yourself...Why has Alstry warned you about Zombulation for so long and been so right while Washington, Geithner, and Bernanke been so wrong???????????????????  and they are MUCH smarter with access to more resources than Alstry.

Obama has walked into a mess. the BIGGEST economic mess EVER faced by an American President.....as Americans we will be forced to make radical changes!!!!!!  

Under the current path.....they are going to get ya....one way or another!!!!

17 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 30, 2009 at 10:29 AM, alstry (35.28) wrote:

For those who wonders what motivates Alstry....

How cool do you think it is to invent an Academic Theory....Alstrynomics.... with all of its sub components including Concentric Contraction, Zombulation and the FU Virus.......and that theory be more accurate in understanding and navigating through the current environment than the prevailing discipline and its experts backed by ostensibly unlimited resources....?

and provided to you in a relatively obscure environment and for free on CAPs.....

 

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#2) On May 30, 2009 at 11:01 AM, zcihak (34.21) wrote:

How long has it been since you slept.

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#3) On May 30, 2009 at 11:17 AM, alstry (35.28) wrote:

We had a party last night until about 4 am Eastern.....luckily waking up was not too difficult as the kids slept over at neighbors.

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#4) On May 30, 2009 at 11:44 AM, bigcat1969 (92.32) wrote:

The Fed has created billions of dollars off the books and even they don't seem to know where the money is going.  They will continue to create money for as many years as they need to since all it takes is a few keystrokes.  Taxes won't double, fed programs won't shut down and housing incentives will continue until Obama is making the full down mortgage payment for needy families to get into house they can't afford.  Bread will cost fifty bucks a loaf, but hey the stock market will skyrocket and thats all that matters.

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#5) On May 30, 2009 at 12:02 PM, UKIAHED (36.23) wrote:

At this point...Real Estate Values HAVE crashed so much that if you sold off ALL the real estate and applied EVERY DIME of EVERY SAVER in America...it would likely not be sufficient to pay down the debt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

You may want to get out of the house some.  Not all real estate has crashed.  Not everyone put themselves into risk for foreclosure (I know I already posted to you about the overwhelming number of homes that have no debt…).  I just checked our area (on Friday) on the MLS and with the county – out of 600+ homes in our “rural suburb” – 5 are for sale – none are in foreclosure and there are no short sales.  I was looking to pickup a cheap home as an investment – there are none in our area.  I was looking because we just sold some land (bought it for $1000/acre 10 years ago – just sold for $5500/acre last week – some crash!).  Just for fun – I even checked the estimated value of our house on Zillow – turns out it is worth 20% less than 2 years ago – damn.  We bought it 15 years ago – it is only worth 210% more (than what we paid for it) now – I guess I can live with that…  BTW – I live in California (one of the harder hit states for property losses…).

I just want you to have a bit of perspective.  Just because the headlines scream Real Estate Crash – they do not cover the entire country.  Sure areas of California have dropped 50% - sure some homes in Detroit are selling for $5000 – but most of us are just fine thank you.

I’m curious – has someone in your extended family lost a job or are in foreclosure?

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#6) On May 30, 2009 at 12:10 PM, UKIAHED (36.23) wrote:

Millions of Jobs Lost and Tens of Millions wages cut or benefits lost with over 70% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck with little savings!!!!!

 

Just caught that line – where did you find the 70% number – I cannot seem to find anything to back that up…

“little savings” – care to elaborate on that?  The line seems to indicate that 70% of Americans have little savings – I don’t buy it – but tell me what you think “little” is and what constitutes “savings” and I’ll try to get some numbers for you…

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#7) On May 30, 2009 at 1:44 PM, alstry (35.28) wrote:

Uki,

My analysis applies to all real estate...not just residential real estate....for example that John Hancock building that was financed with $1.2 Billion a couple years ago was recently resold for only $600 million......that is a lot of homes on simply one building...now if we added in the hundred buildings in N. Va area alone and then expanded that to distressed shopping centers etc...you will see that like usual, Altstrynomics is right.

If you added up all the financing on all real estate in America against the current aggregate value...Alstrynomics estimates that there is about a $6 trillion dollar deficit......more than the total of all savings in America.

I live in a neighborhood where the home values range from about $800K to $6 million...we are still in a farily good market here and few homes are foreclosed...but what you are seeing now is a rising tide of silent distress that is slowly beginning to seep into a slightly higher than average number of listings.

Uki,

You don't buy it...that is why you are not worthy of elevating yourself to Alstrynomics...it is only for people who can see the truth and live in reality...but I have little doubt you have the apitude to eventually get there if you put your mind to it..I have seen some of your better work and have been occasionally impressed.

SAN ANTONIO, Sept. 15 /PRNewswire/ -- Seventy one percent of American employees are living paycheck to paycheck, according to results released today from the 2008 "Getting Paid In America" survey.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUS194666+15-Sep-2008+PRN20080915

My guess is since September, with the millions of job losses, the number today would be matierally higher.

UKI...let me help give you a better visual perspective...we all live in one system at the end of the day...sorta like the passengers on the Titanic...after the ship hit the iceberg, if you were in First Class the impact simply felt like a bump and you kept on drinking and dancing...if you were in steerage, water was gushing in and the consequences were felt much earlier....in the end....all were either swimming in the ocean or in a life boat.

For those that live in America and choose to stay....we are all impacted by what impacts our nation and it is our duty to support our nation during times of stress.  At times of war, many of us are asked to sacrifice family members...at times of economic catastrophes, we will soon find out what we will be forced to sacrifice.

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#8) On May 30, 2009 at 3:30 PM, UKIAHED (36.23) wrote:

SAN ANTONIO, Sept. 15 /PRNewswire/ -- Seventy one percent of American employees are living paycheck to paycheck, according to results released today from the 2008 "Getting Paid In America" survey.

Ah - I feel better now - when you said 70% of Americans - I was not clear that this was just the employed Americans.  So what you meant to write was that 70% of the employed Americans live paycheck to paycheck – that would be about 105,000,000 people.  Add in their kids (59,000,000) and you get 164,000,000 out of 306,000,000 Americans. 

So the line should read –

Millions of Jobs Lost and Tens of Millions wages cut or benefits lost with over 54% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck with little savings!!!!!

OK – that sounds about right to me.  That leaves 46% of us living with a plan and with savings...

My analysis applies to all real estate...not just residential real estate....for example that John Hancock building that was financed with $1.2 Billion a couple years ago was recently resold for only $600 million......

Very good – now if you would share your work with the class…  What is the total value of all real estate in the US?  Now what is the total mortgage debt of said real estate?

“Study finds more than 20% of U.S. homeowners - about 20 million residences - owe more than their homes are worth” That leaves 80% of us still above water.  It is hard to believe that 20% could put the 80% of us with a  $6 trillion dollar deficit on mortgage values.  Especially when the total 2008 mortgage debt was $10.5 Trillion (residentital). 

My only conclusion is that the total commercial value vs debt must be needed to get to your $6 trillion.  So,  please show me the numbers. Alstrynomics estimates that there is about a $6 trillion dollar deficit......more than the total of all savings in America.

Been here, done this.  We have more that $6 trillion in CDs, Money Market accounts, etc..  Heck – just the money on the sidelines in money market accounts waiting to buy stocks is over $3.5 trillion. 

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#9) On May 30, 2009 at 3:48 PM, alstry (35.28) wrote:

Uki..your neighbors are getting Zombulated all around you. Let me share an example...

 

“Nowhere in the country has the bust arrived more abruptly. Santa Clara County, home to Silicon Valley, saw bankruptcies soar 59 percent in the past 12 months, and projections are that they’re still climbing. Almost every seat in the bankruptcy courtroom is full. Joel Gonzalez, who used to make $100,000 a year installing hardwood floors, earned ‘about 400 bucks’ in March doing odd jobs. His life began falling apart in the fall when his boss, distraught about his failing business, committed suicide. Suddenly out of work, Gonzalez saw the adjustable payments on his $360,000 home loan increase from $2,400 to $3,200. Two months later his savings ran out and he found himself talking to a bankruptcy attorney.”

http://sentinelsource.com/articles/2009/05/30/business/news/free/id_357426.txt

As more and more people get zombulated, they become our issue and our responsiblity as a nation.  The more that get zombulated, since they can't find replacement work, the fewer that must support them until the few can't support the many. 

Again, this is just like the Titanic filling up with water, at the beginning all is fine but once the ship takes on too much water, it breaks apart and sinks.  Right now our ship is filling up with zombulated citizens...once enough become infected with the FU virus...all will breake apart...I promise.

Soon your Governor is going to be forced to double or triple your taxes due to an unstainable deficit.  If he doesn't do it, he will be forced to take hundreds of thousands of familes off of welfare and soon your neighborhood will be overrun with beggers.....what do you think that will do to home values in the area???

Which do you prefer, a neighborhood full of beggers or much higher taxes??????????????

Welcome to Zombie Nation...your ship has arrived.

 

 

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#10) On May 30, 2009 at 4:35 PM, finabuddy (96.32) wrote:

what law school did you attend?

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#11) On May 30, 2009 at 7:34 PM, UKIAHED (36.23) wrote:

Soon your Governor is going to be forced to double or triple your taxes due to an unstainable deficit.  If he doesn't do it, he will be forced to take hundreds of thousands of familes off of welfare and soon your neighborhood will be overrun with beggers.....what do you think that will do to home values in the area???

 

Yep – should be interesting.  Not worried about the beggars in our area – a bit too far from the cities – but your point is taken.  I also believe that I am a tad more optimistic that you.  We’ve been thru recessions and depressions before.  In any event – did you notice that I usually only comment on your posts when you throw out numbers that seem to exceed (inflate?) the situation?  Like 70% of Americans – as opposed to 70% of working Americans…  It may or may not be a big deal to you – but I just want to make sure that your viewers are aware of the differences between the two statements.  I much prefer opinions based upon verifiable numbers.  Just my humble take on life.

Enjoy your weekend.

Ed

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#12) On May 30, 2009 at 8:03 PM, alstry (35.28) wrote:

Because the number of Americans is higher...it includes welfare and social security that are not considered working;)

Not only does Alstrynomics like to be right...it likes to be conservative.

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#13) On May 30, 2009 at 8:36 PM, awallejr (83.91) wrote:

"In any event – did you notice that I usually only comment on your posts when you throw out numbers that seem to exceed (inflate?) the situation?"

Uki, welcome to "Alstry World."  You will get tired of going over the same things everyday.  Best to just check in once every 20 blogs of his.

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#14) On May 30, 2009 at 9:26 PM, 119862913 wrote:

If we use the Zimbabwe model then there will be no appreciable debt to speak of anywhere in the US. Government debt eliminated, corporate debt toasted, mortgages laughably WAAAAAAY above water, dollar devalued and wages made competitive with the rest of the 3rd world. What a paradise it will be!

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#15) On May 31, 2009 at 12:35 AM, tonylogan1 (28.15) wrote:

UKIAHED - You are more optimistic than Alstry? Not saying much...

Alstry - Not sure if it was original to you, but i like the Titanic example.

Still time left to stock up on more Costco canned tuna...

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#16) On May 31, 2009 at 12:57 AM, booyahh (< 20) wrote:

Alstry, you're just bitter that we have bottomed, and that we are slowly recovering. You can't accept that you were wrong. So you keep stringing together stray pieces of bad news in order to keep arguing against reality. Just like Cheney had to see evidence of WMD, you have to see evidence of a collapse. The rest of us have figured out that we averted a Depression. You can use all the math you want, but sometimes there's just no substitute for common sense.

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#17) On May 31, 2009 at 3:23 AM, cashkid79 (93.40) wrote:

HAHA - this back and forth dialogue I just read is eerily similiar to reading a case study for a psych class concerning the current (active) investor's mentality - or a least one persective of said mentality in this specific case. 

I think many undervalue the psychological component of investor mentality that can be easily gathered from blog posts, CAPS information, any charting of their historical trading style (trends, patterns, custom indicators/advisor's actively used, etc.) and the good it can do by studying this component (the psychological component as it applys to any specific positioning; buys/sells) and then applying anything found possibly useful - or more likely what mistake/pitfalls to try and avoid - into your own trading 'system'.

Of course this is in no way implying that this, IMO, is the most useful feature in the CAPS offering.  Actually, I presume that it is not (maybe even useful at all?) for most members.

I do think this is a part of why CAPS has been such a useful tool for me, even being a new member with such limited exposure. 

 

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