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TMFMmbop (42.19)

UPDATE: CAPS Champion of the World Contest

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June 16, 2009 – Comments (13)

The recent (last few days) downturn in the stock market hit emerging markets particularly hard and that's caused some upheaval atop the standings of our Global Gains CAPS Champion of the World Contest.

Former leader ibdvalueinvestin has dropped all the way down to fourth, and the top spot is now occupied by vitrified. But vitrified will be in trouble if this stock market swing continues since the player is very long and very large number of stocks. Again, that's a strategy that will take you to victory in a bull market, but means doom in a bear market. Overall, the top 5 look like this:

1. vitrified
2. desertdreams
3. dcoolhead
4. IBDvalueinvestin
5. tgga99

My question for vitrified is: Are you considering any underperform ratings? My question for everyone is: Is this a healthy pullback or the beginning of another capitulation?

Let your thoughts be know in the comments and act on them to win fabulous prizes by joining our CAPS Champion of the World Contest.

13 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 16, 2009 at 4:26 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

This is a healthy pullback.

My question is are you going to clarify the rules, per the question in your blogged linked to the contest that were asked two weeks ago?

This started out being an international contest. Pick one each quarter with an international tag and one each quarter from your Thursday Blog options for a total of 8.

It's much more interesting now that it was raised to 100 picks. The part about this being an international contest has become muddied. It was my understanding that the 100 gave us a chance to look at more of your Thursday picks and not try to make a snap decision each quarter.  The rest of the picks gave us more opportunity to pick other stocks with an international tag.

The contestants are riddled with U.S. Based stocks and Ultra ETF's. IF these slipped through before the contest was fully active then they should be cleaned up before it goes much further.  If they are allowed, then please identify, so others can get on the same page.  

I found this a great way to learn about international companies, as I thought this contest was designed.  If we can stack it with US companies and ULTRA ETF's, then we may as well just play the regular caps game.  Some contestants have maxed out their 100 picks so clearly can't pick off your suggestions the next three quarters. I'd suggest picking a date, say this Friday, and give the leader the global gains, and reset this game if it can't be cleaned up.

It might be nice if on contests they were opened up in a TEST mode for a week, to get all the questions and rules clarified.

Thanks.
TSIF

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#2) On June 16, 2009 at 4:38 PM, scrillawill (< 20) wrote:

comon we all know caps is rigged come on over to www.covestor.com where we can really track the trades put your real trades out here

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#3) On June 16, 2009 at 4:52 PM, russiangambit (29.31) wrote:

> The contestants are riddled with U.S. Based stocks and Ultra ETF's. IF these slipped through before the contest was fully active then they should be cleaned up before it goes much further.  If they are allowed, then please identify, so others can get on the same page.  

I noticed that too. My assumption is that such players will be disqualified?

I have one more question , - shold I be able to close my pciks? I don't see the button to close them like I see next to my regular CAPS peaks. If I have to hold all the picks for a full year, that is a different game.

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#4) On June 16, 2009 at 4:56 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

I would think if they didn't pick one of the Thursday Global gains and at least one each quarter with the global tag that they would not be eligible.  The other 92 picks seem to have less clarity.

The rule on most of these contests is that they have to be held, but a year is a LONG time!  In the original rules before it was modified to 100, it they had to be held.  Good luck!

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#5) On June 16, 2009 at 5:32 PM, TMFMmbop (42.19) wrote:

As you pointed out, we failed to put the proper restriction the contest. I think we'll give everybody the opportunity to close out non-international picks or be forced to restart in the contest with enough notice, but other solutions are welcome.

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#6) On June 17, 2009 at 9:29 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

My suggestion would be to clarify the guidelines concerning international picks only.

Have the CAP's programming wizards run a purge on the game players where the pick is not on the international list.

You will find that some picks probably belong on the international list, but aren't, so have a link to where we can request to have them added.

This should help to get the group cleaned up and much more usesful to those using the advanced CAPs search tools.

CAP's wizards then set the game so only international can be picked (similar to how they did banks and other contests, by using the internatial tags.

If you leave it to contestants to find their non-international picks then many will be missed.  If you are going to manually check the picks prior to awarding prizes each quarter then that would take care of that, but be time consuming on your end.

I'm confident the CAP's programming wizards can do a purge for us??  :)

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#7) On June 17, 2009 at 11:50 AM, vitrified (98.52) wrote:

My question for vitrified is: Are you considering any underperform ratings?

In regular CAPS, I had fun as I started venturing into underperforms and racked up some points with some seemingly sure things such as GM a couple months ago.  But I missed badly on some others (most recently, PALM). I feel like I can hit on outperforms better than 80% in a rising market; while with underperforms, I am not much better than 50%.  I was tempted by a couple of your underperform recommendations, but I also recognize that increasing "over-valuation" can continue for more than a year--and I wouldn't be surprised if "all boats" continue to rise in emerging markets over the next year given how dramatic last year's sell off was.  That's the view from my admittedly very cloudy crystal ball.  I'll wait for at least the three-month mark before I celebrate any success here.  In this wild market, that seems like an eternity.

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#8) On June 17, 2009 at 12:26 PM, russiangambit (29.31) wrote:

> but I also recognize that increasing "over-valuation" can continue for more than a year--and I wouldn't be surprised if "all boats" continue to rise in emerging markets over the next year given how dramatic last year's sell off was.

I completely agree. If I have to hold all the picks for the whole year, no more underperforms for me. I think emerging markets will outperform SP500 over a  year. Especailly, if we think the dollar is going to tank.

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#9) On June 17, 2009 at 1:24 PM, TMFMmbop (42.19) wrote:

Interesting. Thanks for adding your thoughts, and congratulations on the lead!

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#10) On June 17, 2009 at 5:26 PM, vitrified (98.52) wrote:

Ha, my lead didn't last long!  Though funny, my wife just gave birth to our first child this week, so as long as this blog stays online, I can show our new son that at the time he was born, his father was CAPS Champion of the World!  Some of us need to latch onto laurels whenever we have the opportunity.  Anyway, my posting and picks will likely slow down for a while (though they do have free wireless in the hospital).

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#11) On June 17, 2009 at 5:33 PM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

definitely need to be able to close some picks - I entered 100 picks and have no way to add any more of the Thursday picks

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#12) On June 17, 2009 at 5:56 PM, Melaschasm (55.96) wrote:

I guess I should have kept checking the rules changes.

I initially picked 1 stock, thinking we were limited to 8.  After seeing peoples huge scores, I went back and discovered that we could have 100 picks. I have been slowly adding to my list based upon a couple different CAPS screens. 

I have seen a number of picks be not allowed, and it appeared to be because they were not qualified (US stocks).  If the contest is not correctly screening out picks, then I am likely to have a number of US companies in my list.  I have time for deeper research of 8 picks, but if we are going to be carrying 100 picks, then I don't have time to spend hours on each choice. 

Being somewhat new to TMF, I have not used all the different features of the CAPS screener, and I do not know how to screen out the US stocks.  I guess that will be my next job, or maybe I will just drop out of this contest.  Since I have dropped out of the top 10, and now rank in the 60's, it is much less likely that I will be a major factor anyways.

Thank you for the interesting contest.  As someone who primarily invests domestically, it has been interesting to look at more foreign companies.

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#13) On June 17, 2009 at 6:06 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Melaschasm, a year is a long time, especially in CAPs, but since you made 91 picks, all you have left to do is pick one each quarter from Tim's Thursday offerings, and let 'er ride. The top players are down almost 800 points this week on a moderate bear correction.  This thing can still swing all over the place.

Vetrified:  Congratulations!!!!   Don't tie up all your time on CAP's!  Enjoy.  They are only newborns for a short time. Soon you will never be able to catch your son!  

TSIF

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