March 20, 2010
– Comments (18)
On January 1, 2010 I wrote this post on the Lehman vacuum.
We are almost there, hehe ...
S&P 500 index in EUR (currently at around 1159.90 / 1.3527 ≈ 857.47).
THE “LEHMAN COLLAPSE VACUUM”
In 2008, after the Lehman collapse, the S&P 500 fell from 1250 to 900 in a mere four weeks. The S&P 500 has now moved into what Ian McAvity refers to as “The Lehman Collapse Vacuum.”
Thus today Leuthold, The Bullish Technician, sees no overhead resistance of significance before S&P 1200-1250….. My initial upside target zone over the next six months (possibly even by year end 2009). This assumes the still cautious do capitulate and the dollar is not decimated prior to Q2 2010.
(from here (pdf))
the chart from comment #5 of that post.
approaching floor #6 ...
... and if you need more orientation yet (see this post).
That green jungle thingy - is supposed to trace out leutholds - beard & moustache - line ?
Maybe then S&P will have considerable consolidation at 1200??
In his February 2010 edition of “View from the North Country,” veteran market observer Steve Leuthold noted that his proprietary Major Trend Index, which turned bearish in mid-2007 and bullish again in late 2008, remains solidly in bullish territory. In fact, it gained strength in February during the market correction. Leuthold’s Major Trend Index is constructed on a weight-of-the-evidence basis from about 190 separate indicators, some of which are “anticipatory” in nature while others are purely “reactionary” (trend-following). He reported that “almost every cyclical bull market top is preceded by serious warning flags emerging from a large number of these anticipatory indicators,” and few, if any, such warning flags have shown up in this bull market to date. Based on his work, Leuthold continues to expect the S&P 500 to trade in the range of 1300 to 1350 later in 2010.
Bull Market Believers
The fact that investors remain skittish is one of the key factors encouraging Leuthold, who told clients to stop putting money into the firm's bearish fund on Mar. 4, 2009. Investors have pumped $369 billion into mutual funds that hold bonds since March 2009, compared with $23.4 billion for stock funds, according to the Investment Company Institute, the Washington-based lobbying group for professional money managers. "Individual investors, as measured by mutual fund flows, have absolutely no current enthusiasm for equity investing," Leuthold wrote in a Mar. 5 report to clients. "As a contrarian, I view this environment of disbelief and skepticism as quite bullish."
"relevant news" for "RNAi stocks" in comments #5,6 here.
S&P 500 index in EUR (currently at around 1159.90 / 1.3527 ≈ 857.47).
currently at around 1167.38 / 1.3549 ≈ 861.60.
just found this.
looks like a scene from a Bond movie. that's what controlling a nuclear power plant was like in the late 50s. really scary ...
S&P 500 index in EUR vs. DAX30 (blue).
Nigeria Beats BRICs as Mobius Expects Frontier Rally
#78) On February 16, 2010 at 12:20 AM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: FIRSTBAN:NL - 0.0991 USD (14.95 NGN) - outperform (high risk!)
#82) On February 26, 2010 at 7:51 AM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: FIDELITY:NL - 0.0178 USD (2.68 NGN) - outperform (high risk!)
#83) On February 26, 2010 at 7:54 AM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: SKYEBANK:NL - 0.049 (7.36 NGN) - outperform (high risk!)
Ferrexpo upbeat on iron ore demand, shares up
#840) On November 11, 2009 at 6:41 PM, portefeuille (99.96) wrote: FXPO.L - 2.84 (171.30 p) - outperform
Dollar Trades Near 7-Month High on Improved Economic Outlook
good old Nikkei 225 index ...
26 February 2010, CF Eclectica Absolute Macro Fund, MONTHLY FACTSHEET (pdf)
26 February 2010, CF ECLECTICA EUROPE FUND, PERFORMANCE ATTRIBUTION (pdf)
Investor says Las Vegas economy isn't indicator for U.S.
Don't assume that the country's economy mirrors the devastation in Las Vegas, a prominent Wall Street adviser told local investors this week.
"Las Vegas is not the United States," said Steve Leuthold, founder and chief investment officer of the $4.5 billion Leuthold Group of Minneapolis.
Leuthold spoke to clients of the Investment Counsel Company at the Red Rock Resort on Tuesday and explained why he remains bullish on the stock market for the next several months.
Businesses are investing more in plants and equipment than they were at the same stage in three of the last four recessions, he said.
Steel production in the United States is up 80 percent over eight months, and more autos are being made here, he said.
Leuthold rejected the argument by analysts who say investors should expect lower returns over the next few years -- the "new normal," as money management giant PIMCO calls it.
"The economic expansion is obviously under way," Leuthold said. "The fact is unemployment is coming down (nationally)."
Companies that provide businesses with temporary workers are reporting a boom.
"Corporations now hold more cash than at any time in their history," Leuthold said. Cash represents 19 percent of corporate assets, and he suggested that companies will put that money to work by expanding operations or buying other businesses.
Interest rates will increase, Leuthold said, but he criticized media pundits who don't understand that stocks often increase while interest rates are rising.
He also is optimistic because hourly pay and benefits costs for manufacturing employees in the United States have come down from being the fourth highest in the world in 2002. Two years ago, American manufacturing workers were ranked 16th-highest in compensation, Leuthold said.
Leuthold sees a trend of foreign companies building manufacturing and assembly plants in the United States.
Citing another reason for cheer, he said stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index are getting 40 percent of their profits outside of the United States.
"This is a wonderful development as long as you don't see tariff wars develop," he said.
While optimistic about the next several months, Leuthold said he wants to see how the federal government deals with its growing debt before trying to forecast stock market prospects farther into the future.
"We want to see how this huge amount of debt that's been built up is going to be handled," he said. "It's almost certain that your taxes are going up."
good old TOPIX. over 1000 again in the not so distant future, I guess ...
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