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Varchild2008 (84.58)

Valuemoney is cheating....(F)

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January 26, 2011 – Comments (19)

Just noticed....

Valuemoney challenged me to hold onto my shares of (FORD) for 5 years.....

I said fine if you hold your RED THUMB pick for 5 years....

But guess what?  Valuemoney has (F) Ford marked as a "Top Pick" and this means he's not taking any hits to his score....  A Top Pick means it has no affect on your score.

Does this sound like a fair challenge to you?

It sure doesn't to me.

19 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 26, 2011 at 9:53 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.77) wrote:

What is a "Top Pick"?

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#2) On January 26, 2011 at 9:59 PM, Valyooo (99.67) wrote:

Wait is that really how a top pick works?

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#3) On January 26, 2011 at 10:08 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.77) wrote:

LOL! let me try that again-

What is a "Top Pick"?

Players have the option of marking any of their Scorecard or Watchlist picks as a "Top Pick." This designation is a way to tell the community that the player feels strongly about this pick with respect to the player's other picks. "Top Pick" designations do not affect the way in which the player is scored on the pick. Players can mark as many or as few picks as they like with the "Top Pick" designation. "Top Pick" designations can be added or removed at any time.

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#4) On January 26, 2011 at 11:01 PM, mattm712 (< 20) wrote:

From reading HarryCarysGhost post (say that five times fast), I think a "Top Pick" is still scored the same as any other pick, as opposed to not being scored at all, which you suggested.

"'Top Pick' designations do not affect the way in which the player is scored on the pick."

Assuming they wrote that correctly, "the player is scored" means just that.  They're probably making it clear that a "Top Pick" doesn't somehow count for double points or something because you feel strongly about it.

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#5) On January 27, 2011 at 6:15 AM, dragonLZ (99.66) wrote:

valuemoney is not cheating, but he is wrong about Ford.

Ford has risen 60% since he red-thumbed it. This "let's see in 5 years is pure B.S." (and suitable for CAPS only, not real life).

Only people who made wrong predictions have to pick some arbritrary time frame and say "let's see then".

He sure didn't red-thumb Ford at $11 thinking it will soon be $17, but in 5 years I'll be right.

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#6) On January 27, 2011 at 3:56 PM, Varchild2008 (84.58) wrote:

Ah ok I think I get it now....maybe....

They could have phrased it better to make it more clear..

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#7) On January 28, 2011 at 8:33 PM, valuemoney (99.99) wrote:

I did state Ford could trade much higher than the price I red thumbed it! I am making a statement with the pick as I am doing with FCX right now and SLW. These companies are over valued at current prices relative to the market in my opinion. Short term to stocks can trade at any price WAY to HIGH or WAY to LOW. Moment makes this happen. But in the end game TRUE value comes out. That may take years. When I make a investment may plan is to hold a long time. And that means at least 2 years and maybe for life.

Varchild2008 settle down on the cheating thing you are wong about that also! 

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#8) On January 28, 2011 at 8:34 PM, valuemoney (99.99) wrote:

wrong not wong

 

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#9) On January 28, 2011 at 9:04 PM, valuemoney (99.99) wrote:

DragonLZ  I don't understand how I can be wrong about Ford yet because I think you would agree things can be overvalued for a long period of time.

Example- Look at what happened to the housing market and some of the investment vehicle that went with it. And answer this question and post it for me. How long was that stuff overvalued?  Everyone was like " housing and these investment vehicles will keep going up!" ..... then whamo the bubble burst!!!

We all feel the effect when that happened. Heck we almost went into a great depression.

Now lets say I was saying in 2006 housing was getting a too pricey and I would stay away from some of the stuff related to it. For the rest of 2006 and 2007 people are laughing at me saying I am wrong because short term I am. But in late 2008 they are crying and I am the one laughing!

I put a 5 year plus rating not for the fun of it because LONG TERM thats how I think it is going to play out!

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#10) On January 28, 2011 at 9:09 PM, valuemoney (99.99) wrote:

I just want a post giving balance sheet numbers. Historic margins and explain to me how FORD has its current market cap but no one does that. SOMEONE please do that and tell me what the market cap today should be worth and why. Don't leave out the debt load and liabilities either they are part of the company.

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#11) On January 28, 2011 at 10:19 PM, dragonLZ (99.66) wrote:

valuemoney, you might be right about F in 5 years, but right now is: F 1, valuemoney 0.

p.s.

So if in 10-20-30 years housing market is higher than where it was in 2006-2007 (which is very, very possible), are you still going to say you were right? Based on your theory you can''t do that as short term you made a correct call, but long term you will be wrong.

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#12) On January 28, 2011 at 10:38 PM, valuemoney (99.99) wrote:

It all depends on relative price because the market OVER VALUES and UNDERVALUES things at certain times. BUBBLES I am talking. Housing definately will be worth more over time( in 10-20-30). probably way more, but it might be UNDERVALUED at that time or OVERVALUED. Price determines that.

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#13) On January 28, 2011 at 10:57 PM, valuemoney (99.99) wrote:

Lets say I am buying JNJ right now in real life @ 60 and change. I don't really care if it goes to 40 dollars and stays there for the next 2 years. In fact I would like it because it would allow me to purchase more at a bigger discount. It may say 40 on the ticker but I know better. I can do a quick analysis of the company and say what is worth by looking at the balance sheet income statement an cash flow numbers over a 10 year or longer period and determine at this point in time JNJ is worth more than 60 dollars a share in the present and will probably be worth more WAY MORE in the future looking at its long stable track record.

I did the same with F and determined at its present markets cap WHEN I DOWN THUMBED it was not worth that price and in the future will not be worth more because of its track record, balance sheet and the fact over 30 plus years the auto makers have done HORRIBLE on return on investment and equity. F and GM. GM is best example because largest auto maker in the world goes bankrupt!!!!  Call me crazy but I choose to say they are not good INVESTMENTS.

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#14) On January 28, 2011 at 10:59 PM, valuemoney (99.99) wrote:

I get defensive... sorry not trying to be mean! :) Just trying to state my point.

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#15) On January 29, 2011 at 4:39 AM, jgknot (30.86) wrote:

valuemoney,

i do understand your point of view 

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#16) On January 31, 2011 at 11:56 AM, dragonLZ (99.66) wrote:

valuemoney, you are making a very valid point, and, in general, I agree with you.

However,

1. Going long on a stock is diffeent than going short (your JNJ example). Your timing can be wrong, but history has shown if you wait long enough, most likely, you will eventually be right. (which doesn't mean that somebody who bought a stock right before a 50% drop was right when that stock recovers. If you are wrong, you are wrong, even if you eventually "got lucky"). 

2. Calling a "bubble" on a stock, industry, market, etc a little bit early is OK, but calling it way too early is not. If let's say F goes to be a $50 stock in 2-3 years (roughly 3-bagger from here), but then, during the next bear market, falls under $11, are you still going to say you were right about F?

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#17) On February 05, 2011 at 10:18 AM, valuemoney (99.99) wrote:

DragonLZ I see what you are saying also. We are just thinking about it differently. I would just say owning the company outright would be the difference. Then you would see what I am say from a return on capital stand point. Because your earnings over a long period would tell the story not people running up a stock price or down for that matter. Your balance sheet will tell the story. I five years or ten or even twenty FORD's balance sheet will sing the same story. Margins too low debt too high and liabilities to high. Stock price can get out of hand to the upside or downside.  

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#18) On February 27, 2011 at 9:55 PM, dragonLZ (99.66) wrote:

valuemoney, I just replied to your reply on my JMP pitch.

Sorry it took me so long, I didn't see it earlier.

p.s.

After reading my last comment here, I see I didn't say anything new so no need for reply (in case you don't fell like beating a dead horse once again). My bad.

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