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Varchild2008 (84.41)

Varchild versus TMFDeej (F) Ford and Auto Sales Outlook

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September 23, 2009 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: F

Let's take a gander at this morning's pressers listed on Yahoo Finance website on the (F) Ford ticker symbol:

A)  Ford plans Asia initiatives this week: Journal

"seeking to strengthen its Asian operations, will announce a number of initiatives on the continent this week, The Wall Street Journal reported. In India, Chief Executive Alan Mulally will unveil a new low-priced small car that Ford will produce at a newly expanded Indian plant..."

B)  Ford CEO says U.S. market looking good

"The CEO of Ford Motor Co (NYSE:F - News) said on Wednesday the U.S. market was looking good and vehicle sales were expected to increase."

C)  Ford's Global CEO Reveals New Ford Figo Targeting India Market and Export Sales

D)  Ford Pushing Hard to Boost Sales in Asia


WOW!!!  Look at that....  I better dump my stake in FORD these articles sound so bad.....bad...bad.... let me tell ya....  / end of sarcasm.

But the reality is if you had read TMFDeej's article on how U.S. Auto Sales are set to plunge and could be down for quite awhile post CASH FOR CLUNKER's   FED CASH...Shopping Spree....

Well...gee...based on TMFDeej's charts you would have dumped your stake in FORD.

Furthermore... TMFDeej told me in the commenting section,  "The Easy Money was already made in FORD." 

Sorta like telling all of Motley Fool's investors that believe in the FORD Motor Company's Future.. That believe that Alan Mullaly is working hard to build cars people actually wanna buy and drive and not just in the U.S. but from all walks of life on the Globe....

telling those people that there is "Nothing to See Here.... Nothing To See Here.... Nevermind Alan Mullaly in the background building new small cars in India and a 3rd Auto Plant in China... There's nothing going on with FORD to get excited about here folks...."

And then....just 1-2 days after he does all of this..pulls out his charts... dictates DISASTER for auto sales..... "Well..uhh.... the only hope will have to come from Large Trucks and SUVs....Other than that no one is buying cars anymore... they already did it in CASH FOR CLUNKERS."

Uhm.... sorry.... but there are a LOT of Rush Limbaugh listners... And those who listened to Rush knew that the $4,500 was money that was taxable.... And they knew to WAIT past Cash for Clunkers before making a purchase... There are enough of us Conservative minded Anti-Welfare types who aren't in Financial Straits that they HAD to buy a car in the Cash for Clunkers Scheme or be faced with no transportation.....  That we had the ability and psychology to prefer to wait before buying or upgrading our vehicles.

There is enough of us "We chose not to buy" types out there to make the sales decline in September look really more like an INVENTORY issue rather than a Reverse Trend down.






6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 23, 2009 at 5:27 AM, Varchild2008 (84.41) wrote:

TMFDeej sounds just like "Baghdad Bob" telling investors that the "EASY MONEY has already been made in FORD" while the company is busy working hard and pushing forth on a furious growth path across the globe.

Again though I stress...

I am overly bullish on FORD cause I have an awful lot of money riding on this stock...

TMFDeej... doesn't sound like he's long the stock.  Sounds like those investors that decided to dump their shares once the stock stalled at a peak price of $8.86.

I have nothing against TMFDeej and all of the others that dumped their shares....of Ford.... Find..Their choice.

But to sit there twiddling your thumbs and never seeing the light at the end of the tunnel....the cart before the horse....And telling everyone that they should base their judgement entirely on some U.S. Based Sales Charts  Post 9-11.....

That's where someone should create a big enough fuss and noise and say... HEY.... There's more to the FORD story that meets the eye here!  There's more to this whole SALES business than is being reported...

Can't people just wait for the Sept. #s before making judgement calls?

The Truth is somewhere between TMFDeej and Myself on this one... I just happen to be within 20 yards of scoring a Touchdown and doing in HIS Stadium.

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#2) On September 23, 2009 at 7:25 AM, devoish (96.42) wrote:

Was Deej's timeframe from those posts really just two weeks? And are you going to proclaim yourself correct for the next two years while we wait for the Chinese plant to get built? You know building today makes F late to the China game.

I have no real life position in Ford because I want them to succeed, but I have red thumbed them in CAPS because they have a very tough row to hoe and they did not clear their problems via bankruptcy, giving their competition a competitve edge going forward.

I like their cars too.

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#3) On September 23, 2009 at 9:43 AM, TMFDeej (99.25) wrote:

Ahhhh child, the easy money was already made in Ford...back when I suggested that the company will benefit tremendously from the demise of its main competitors back in March.

What's Bad for GM & Chrysler is Good for Ford

Back then, the company stock was trading for less than $2 per share.  Today it sits at around $7...a nearly 300% increase.  In order to repeat this move, the company would have to trade at $21/share.  I don't think that even the wildest bulls on the company see that happening any time soon...if ever.

Anyone who is long Ford should take a good, long hard look at the company's balance sheet.  It has some serious debt issues.  Current owners of its stock face the serious risk of significant dilution as the company will likely issue more equity to repair its balance sheet.  If it issues more shares, at least the loss per share that it reports quarter, after quarter, after quarter will look smaller.

Deej

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#4) On September 23, 2009 at 9:45 AM, TMFDeej (99.25) wrote:

Ahhhh child, the easy money was already made in Ford...back when I suggested that the company will benefit tremendously from the demise of its main competitors back in March.

What's Bad for GM & Chrysler is Good for Ford

Back then, the company stock was trading for less than $2 per share.  Today it sits at around $7...a nearly 300% increase.  In order to repeat this move, the company would have to trade at $21/share.  I don't think that even the wildest bulls on the company see that happening any time soon...if ever.

Anyone who is long Ford should take a good, long hard look at the company's balance sheet.  It has some serious debt issues.  Current owners of its stock face the serious risk of significant dilution as the company will likely issue more equity to repair its balance sheet.  If it issues more shares, at least the loss per share that it reports quarter, after quarter, after quarter will look smaller.

Deej

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#5) On September 23, 2009 at 11:29 AM, lemoneater (71.74) wrote:

I wonder how the India Automobile venture will go. I have some shares of Tata Motors. Will Ford compete or collaborate with them?

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#6) On December 31, 2010 at 4:15 AM, HARE90 wrote:

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