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Varchild2008 (84.44)

Varchild vs. Credit Suisse? Not hardly.. I agree

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April 28, 2010 – Comments (8) | RELATED TICKERS: F

Varchild vs. Credit Suisse?  Not hardly.... I completely agree with Credit Suisse.

If FORD held the same growth pace for the rest of this year as they have shown in the past 4 quarters....we would have a growth pace of performing 160+% better in EPS than 2009.

Looking at Q3 & Q4.... Ford would have to pull off an EPS 160% better than .26 in Q3 or
67 cents a share in Q3 2010.

Does that even sound remotely possible?

Of course not!   One doesn't even have to bring up Ford Credit or Materials Costs or increased hiring leading to greater labor costs or UAW battles/fights or lawsuits or whatever that impacts earnings.....recalls.......etc.

I seriously don't think FORD investors have ever expected anything out of FORD other than solid market share gains leading to a much higher market share that will of course stabalize at some point.

Fast growth hits a levelling off period all the time.  And is that a bad thing?   Is it bad for APPLE's iPhone to one day have a 50% Market Share and then the growth stops but the Market Share stays at 50%?

Is that bad?    ?    ?     If you think so then you are wrong.... Market Share or Growth Stabalization doesn't mean Sales are flat...

Sales can skyrocket for APPLE's  iPhone and yet market share stays the same cause other cell phone competitors had similar sales growth.  Nonetheless...Apple enjoys bigger profits.

Bottom line.... Don't let things like Credit Suisse Analysts declaring FORD an underperformer discourage you from your holdings...  FORD is still a "HOLD" and that is where Standard and Poors has FORD...a 'HOLD.'

Varchild never said, "I am selling FORD as soon as Market Share stops getting bigger."
I only said that if Market Share starts SLIPPING....FALLING.....then I'll be deeply concerned.

Market Share stabalizing is actually what I fully expect 2nd half of 2010.

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 28, 2010 at 10:42 AM, brickcityman (< 20) wrote:

Since you seem to like to talk about Ford allow me to ask a question...

 

I bought some common back when it was at a big time discount...  But have lately thought about trying to roll my position into preferrred.

 

What do you think of this in general?  So far I have found a number of tickers that all claim to be ford preferred, but little information to distinguish one from another.  Some pay dividends, others don't.  One went ex-date today with a bi-annual payout (missed the boat), another seems like it might be quarterly.

 

Bottom line do you have any good resources for assessing the various Ford related equities?  I'm not interested in buying debt, but I want to move up the food chain.

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#2) On April 28, 2010 at 4:49 PM, Varchild2008 (84.44) wrote:

Sorry.. I can't help you with Preferred cause I get ZERO visibility on that through Scottrade.

I simply can not bring up the Preferred in Scottrade.... I would have to go to a Bank for that.

My money is in Common for now....  But.... I think you should talk to someone at the bank or if you have TD Ameritrade perhaps talk to an advisor... talk to more than 1 person so you can a second and third opinion...

My opinion is useless and worthless so I won't give it.... 
I can't even quote you the share price for the preferred.

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#3) On April 28, 2010 at 4:52 PM, Varchild2008 (84.44) wrote:

P.S.  Just cause I like to talk about FORD and basically all of my positions listed in my Profile which I have real money in doesn't automatically make me any expert anyhow.

Motley Fool doesn't consist of EXPERTS who get paid money to analyze stocks on Motley Fool...  When I do a CAPS pick I don't see my pick show up under "Wall Street" cause I am not a professional..

I am just an average dude individual investor that likes to talk about the stocks he likes and the stocks he doesn't.

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#4) On April 28, 2010 at 5:49 PM, brickcityman (< 20) wrote:

Thanks for your honesty, many would not be so forthcoming.

 

I mainly look at CAPS as a socially infused game, which is why I was asking for any resources not recommendations.

 

For your reference I too use scottrade... the tickers I found were FpA, FpS, there is at least one more that i can't seem to find at the moment.  Its frustrating how little description is provided.

 

Oh well maybe I need to wade deeper into Fords investor relations or see if this sort of thing is buried in the yearly report.

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#5) On April 28, 2010 at 6:37 PM, Varchild2008 (84.44) wrote:

Yea....that's why I don't bother with it until I find the time to get smart about what Ford offers beyond just the common.

Some time in the future I will do some homework on the Ford Preferred and probably share whatever information I receive from my Bank or from professional stock advisors.

Until then.....I'm all talk on the Common.

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#6) On May 07, 2010 at 4:34 PM, valuemoney (99.99) wrote:

 brickcityman

Go with F bonds. Common stock is way overvalued. Preferreds are OK. Ford made it through a very tough time but at a expense to shareholders with big issues of stock. I am not an expert but I do know a thing or two. I think you can get F bonds that yeild nearly 8%. Maybe I am thinking of the Preferreds. I will have to check on that. I got a lot of grief and comments on my FORD pitch. But look at my score I am now possitive on my pick. Ford common is a gamble at this price in my mind but you can do what you want. Good luck.

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#7) On May 07, 2010 at 5:13 PM, brickcityman (< 20) wrote:

@valuemoney

 

can you sort through which preferreds are which?  I sure can't

 

I am deep in the money on my F common (but not as deep as a few days ago), but looking to get a little more bang for my buck.

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#8) On May 08, 2010 at 3:52 PM, valuemoney (99.99) wrote:

FORD MTR CO CAP TR II PFD TR CV6.5%  34539520-CUSIP

Personally I would keep a small portion of your F investment if you want. Sell the rest and at this point in time Buy shares of CPB and KO. These are the most solid investments at this point in time relative to market and I would bet your annual returns on these two equities would get u a return of at least 10% annually over the next ten years. They are not a get rich quick investment but a buy and hold. That is my type of Investing.

If I were you- on your CAPS watchlist or somewhere else start these picks Monday or sometime next week. Include F in that, and over these next few years look and see which outperforms. F might but I would bet a lot of money KO and CPB will outperform the S&P for sure. I worked hard for all my money and would'nt want it disappearing on a company with the balance sheet and liablities FORD has. That my thinking but you can do what you want. GOOD LUCK. I am happy to tell you what I think on any other investments also.

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