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Varchild2008 (84.02)

Varchild's Dire Warnings regarding (F) Ford....



January 05, 2010 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: F

Let's begin with the bad news:

1)  KIA's  UVO:    This is definitely the news article I was expecting to see at some point in time.  KIA is perhaps the first company to come out with a competitor product to FORD SYNCH.

Everyone's gonna hop on the bandwagon... Will Ford's Market Share still rise when the Japan automakers and everyone else have their own versions close to if not better than Ford Sync?

2)  Rising Dollar:    Not a big deal... but definitely a negative impact to FORD if the U.S. Dollar rises big in 2010.  This offsets some of the sales momentum Ford may still have in 2010 despite the lack of scrappage programs.

Rising Dollar makes overseas products costs more to buy.

3)  Higher Oil Prices:   Yes, they mean more sales of fuel efficient vehicles.....yes....if people can still afford them...  I don't like rising oil an investor... unless I am buying oil commodity or Chesepeak Oil or whatever.... 

Consumer Spending momentum will collapse if the price of Oil goes to $90+.  I think the negative impact to consumer spending is going to start soon already with Oil near $82 and Pump Prices set to be higher this weekend than they ever were in 2009.  Can you say $3.00+ a gallon again?

So don't tell me how Higher Oil Prices mean more sales of Electric Cars for FORD.... Not when we saw Peak Oil in 2008 and Ford Sales fall off a cliff until 2nd half of 2009.

What's next??? Back to triple digits oil???!!!!  I'm gonna be a big buyer of vehicles when Natural Gas is $10.00 per BTU and OIL is $140 again.... woo-hoo!  /sarc. 

So... Don't go 100% full bore EUPHORIC over the January Effect this month.  It won't make you any money when things start to get sticky later on... Instead you'll whine, moan, cry, panic when we face harder times with higher inflation in commodities and unemployment that is still bleak..

All I am saying is reminding investors of (F) that you should do what I do.... Share price up?  Be Sad and Angry about it..... Share price down??? Celebrate!!!     

Do the opposite with your emotions which forces you to speculate against the flow of the direction of your investments...  When things are good try and discover obstacles that might negatively impact your stock.... when things are bad... try to find the light at the end of the long tunnel.

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