Use access key #2 to skip to page content.

Varchild2008 (84.50)

Varchild's DJ HERO Prediction already taking shape...

Recs

2

October 24, 2009 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: ATVI

I have already witnessed what I wanted to see from DJ HERO to help determine if my prediction that the video game will be an EXTREMELY INSANE success that the ATVI Investor community is absolutely.....insanely.....overlooking / ignoring / poo pooing  due to DJ HERO's hefty price tag.

Let me put it more simple for those BEARISH on DJ HERO and thus BEARISH on Call of Duty and thus BEARISH on ATVI....

YOU............................................ARE..............................................................WRONG


What did I see that got me so amped up and excited? 

Well... I went to Best Buy and Gamestop... Unfortunately, there were no DJ HERO display at the Gamestop I went to most likely because of how much space the DJ HERO game takes up and how small this particular store was.....

There was a DJ HERO display at Best Buy however..... And non-stop like clockwork after 1 person got done messing around with the DEMO....another person got on.....

Another thing I picked up on was that at least one of the individuals that sat down and played DJ HERO was doing quite well..... at one point getting some Perfects....  Definitely showed signs that he needed to practice to do better...... But it made me feel that this person *played* *this* *before* and may be returning to the Demo once more to play again....

My point?

My point is that this is how you create a franchise or better yet.... how you recognize that you HAVE a franchise....  You want to see your video game looking extremely popular among gamers as well as see signs that those who played the DEMO liked it enough to want to come back and play it some more.....

Will the recession + hefty price tag cut into sales???

Uhm...............I......Don't........Think.......So......

Before you laugh at me as completely STUPID....or IDIOTIC..... or BIASED cause I own 640 shares of ATVI....

let me put it this way....

Most families in a good economy middle class families can provide $200+ for Christmas/Holidays to each Kid they have......  In a bad economy?  They should muster half that....50% cut to the holiday season...

Under that circumstance we are looking at pretty close to DJ HERO's price tag..... and thus my THESIS.....

my THESIS is that DJ HERO is such an awesome, revolutionary title that IT along with CALL OF DUTY will act as the 1 gift Mothers MUST BUY for their KIDS.....

When you are ATVI and you have that 1 GIFT........... Then it is very reasonable to expect great things in Q4.....  Right now ATVI has CALL OF DUTY + DJ HERO.....  Weakness in sales in 1 may just mean extra bullishness in sales for the other..... Mothers will have to *PICK ONE* and buy that ONE for their kids.... instead of being able to buy BOTH titles.

And that does not mean a 50% blow to ATVI..... No.... No.....No.....No......No......No....

Jow many CHRISTMAS seasons happen where ATVI has multiple ridiculous blockbuster titles that I call QUAD A Titles???    last year brought us Call of Duty World At War which was a MUCH WEAKER title than Call of Duty Modern Warfare..... And many gamers needed a 1 year gap before buying their next Call of Duty game anyhow.....

Let's face it..... These 2 Titles are STRONGER than any 2 titles in ATVI's Christmas Holiday lineup in ATVI's history...... BAR NONE.....

The only possible way to beat this MAY...MIGHT BE.......  Next year assuming Starcraft II + DIABLO III team up for the Holidays next year...

In short.... INVESTORS BEARISH on DJ HERO have lost 1 argument..... that DJ HERO won't interest anyone cause gamers are tired of the Music Genre....

That THESIS has been DESTROYED.....

Only time will tell if this means BIG SALES for DJ HERO.....  Varchild2008 is so confident that this DOES MEAN huge sales that he already is amassing some serious cash in his savings account to conduct a major purchase of ATVI shares between now and Q4 earnings report.

3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 24, 2009 at 9:43 PM, Varchild2008 (84.50) wrote:

oops! Small Clarification fix to my blog post.  Not talking about savings account...but talking about Scottrade Account.

Actually the money I have is enough to purchase $1,500 worth of ATVI shares on MONDAY after Friday's slight dip to $12.20.
If I wanted to use what I have amassed already. 

However, I have some time to plot my move.

My highest price point purchase for ATVI is $11.73.  So, I am being a bit smart here in thinking this one dips at or below my highest price point.

And certainly.. I am entitled to be patient with ATVI and anticipate a bit of pessimism heading into Q3 earnings release.

I will not stomache thinking to buy POST Q3 earnings release more shares of ATVI.... Absolutely not... Can not conceive of doing so....  My time limit is thus to make a purchase before closing bell November 5th.

I have lots of stocks I would love to toss my cash at in my portfolio right now..... But.... I went from debating where my money should go.....to tonight being 200% confident that my next big purchase of stock is to expand my share count in ATVI.

Obviously.... I will announce when I make my purchase..

My Q3 Earnings Release thoughts?  Simple...

1)  Sure..perhaps disappointment in Q3 earnings.....whatever...

2) Statements about Q4 will be so positive that investors will buy up the share price....not slam it down.  Especially if the share price is at an 11 handle going into the report....

Report this comment
#2) On October 24, 2009 at 9:46 PM, Varchild2008 (84.50) wrote:

P.S.  Think I know nothing about Video Game Stocks?

See (CYOU) <-------   That stock has spiked it's way....waaaaaay higher than my purchase price when I threw money to buy 30 shares of the stock.

(GAME) <----- Share price has been pressured quite a bit due to share dillution.  I think the share dillution problem goes away once we start seeing some earnings reports... CYOU has the advantage of already producing 2 solid earnings reports.... GAME came out too soon to have released ANYTHING investors can sink their teeth into.

Report this comment
#3) On October 26, 2009 at 12:22 PM, COMPLETFOOL (< 20) wrote:

Boy anyone that is positive on ATVI I hope you are right I bought 500 shares at 12.30.  Eeeeek I hope David G. Is right on this one. With the economy in the tank I took a huge leap of faith in trusting him on this.  Any feed back is appreciated.

Report this comment

Featured Broker Partners


Advertisement