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kirkydu (93.61)

Very Interesting Times

Recs

4

February 26, 2010 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: QQQ , USO , C

"May you live in interesting times."

Chinese Proverb (maybe)

I headed back into the rabbit hole this week, pouring though articles, documents and charts to try to figure out what is really going on in the markets and economy.  The deeper I got, the more questions I had.

What we are seeing in this market rally is the most unusual I have ever seen, a sentiment echoed by the founder of Trim Tabs Research, which is used by approximatey 20-25% of all hedge funds. 

click here to read full advisor letter

includes video from Trim Tabs founder Chris Biderman...

This is the final version, a slight re-write from a week ago, for those interested. 

4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 26, 2010 at 8:50 AM, russiangambit (29.27) wrote:

As I understand from this letter you are in the deflation camp. It si an intresting deflation we are having though - we have deflation in everything that is purchased by main street, so to speak, because they are deleveraging, but we have inflation in fiancial assets and government spending because this is where the new liquidity went.

So, in the end it will be intresting to see the end result of  financial assets inflation + everyday necessities deflation. the end result will be fast widening gulf in income disparity between the holders of financial assets and everybody else a la Mexico. I don't know how you can be positive on the future though. YOu got a lot of angry people out there who feel they are ntop represented because media focuses a lot on reflation of financial assets and not enough on the miseries of everyday life.

There cannot be prosperity without the opportunity and right now the opportunity is only afforded to those closest to the FED's money spigot.

 

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#2) On February 26, 2010 at 12:16 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

"It is an intresting deflation we are having though - we have deflation in everything that is purchased by main street"

The CPI report showed that, excluding food and fuel, prices fell.  However, I don't see deflation in anything but real estate...and maybe some other non-necessities that make up an insignificant portion of my total spending.  Shadowstats just reported that CPI, as reported in the Clinton era, would have been something like +9.8%.  Wages may be stagnant, home prices may be falling, but this +9.8% is closer to what I see out there.

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#3) On February 26, 2010 at 12:20 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

"It is an intresting deflation we are having though - we have deflation in everything that is purchased by main street"

The CPI report showed that, excluding food and fuel, prices fell.  However, I don't see deflation in anything but real estate...and maybe some other non-necessities that make up an insignificant portion of my total spending.  Shadowstats just reported that CPI, as reported in the Clinton era, would have been something like +9.8%.  Wages may be stagnant, home prices may be falling, but this +9.8% is closer to what I see out there.

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#4) On February 26, 2010 at 12:21 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

"It is an intresting deflation we are having though - we have deflation in everything that is purchased by main street"

The CPI report showed that, excluding food and fuel, prices fell.  However, I don't see deflation in anything but real estate...and maybe some other non-necessities that make up an insignificant portion of my total spending.  Shadowstats just reported that CPI, as reported in the Clinton era, would have been something like +9.8%.  Wages may be stagnant, home prices may be falling, but this +9.8% is closer to what I see out there.

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