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Kobalt (85.58)

Very Interesting Year - Meta Entry regarding previous entry

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August 27, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: DF , RSH , ABX

Of course, once fully articulated and sent into the world, you have time to reflect on what you said, and view it against the existing and newly emerging reality.  In other words, how badly did you get it wrong!

On reflecting more on my open and closed trades, I have a few additional observations and notes.

Generally, it looks like the market is looking for an excuse to start the September / October swoon.  And Syria is convenient since hurricane season is looking a little wan this year.  Specifically: 

Open Positions 

RadioShack (RSH): What the heck was that?! Up 20 percent in just a few days.  Looks like new products and new store formats are exciting the optimists.  And a mention from Brian Kelly of CNBC doesn't hurt (subtly splendid, Beeker is).

Barrick Gold (ABX): "See, see, look what waiting does, up 15 percent in just DAYS".  Seriously, the triple-think over the fed's schedule, value of the dollar versus gold and other currencies and impending sequester-budget-ceiling debacle redux makes my head hurt and NO, I would not have predicted this happening this way, right now.  In hindsight, you can see what the froth looked like in gold and should have sold Barrick in the $40s.

Newly Closed 

Microsoft (MSFT): Again, what a difference a few days makes.  I actually closed for similar reasons to my Yahoo close - I don't know what the future looks like and the huge gain for such a large stock was too enticing to pass up.

Closed Positions

For Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo (YHOO), and Netflix (NFLX), I did neglect the involvement of whales - large institutional, hedge fund and activist traders and investors - in how trading might play out.  Their involvement often results in an extension beyond what one normally might expect in price appreciation and these were no exception. I suspect a little technical analysis might have help me find clues in trading volume analysis.

On the other hand, Dean Foods (DF) may play out even worse than I had imagined because of the above and more.  Once the spin-outs are done, it becomes less enticing to those large holders and traders who had once owned it.  Also, the fairly sudden change in weather resulting in an impending drought in farm country has begun to push corn and other commodities back up, although still way off their lows.  Feeding cows will become more expensive.  Finally, yesterday's reverse split doesn't instill confidence in folks who know what reverse splits do to the perception of a stock.

 

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