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Varchild2008 (83.81)

Video Games Business Died in 2008...



February 19, 2009 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: ATVI

Jim Cramer on the subject of whether to invest in Activision, "I think that Business has Peaked!"

Ok?  So.... I guess nobody likes Video Games anymore.  Nobody cares about that form of entertainment.

Disregard all of the Hollywood and Music celebrities that play video games over the XBOX or other platforms in what is known as "Game with Fame" sessions.

Disregard the still infant Mobile Gaming (Cell Phone Gaming) Market that will grow stronger as Cell Phones grow more powerful.

Disregard that the only FEAR in the video games market are RETAIL Sales Fears, as publishers like Nintendo seek to have Games Downloaded instead of Store Purchased.  This can only HELP not HURT Activision.  As it would bring costs dramatically down and profits dramatically up if they pushed customers to a Buy and Download approach.

Disregard that APPLE I-Phone Commercial showing 1 video game after another that is playable on the I-Phone.

Disregard the widespread success of the Call of Duty franchise that has fans both rich and poor, not famous and famous....

On the TV 4Kids network,  "KIT"  from Kamen Riders: Dragon Knight T.V. show is played by actor Stephen Lunsford.  My point?  Actors are video gamers too.  Stephen enjoys Metal Gear Solid franchise as well as the Call of Duty franchise.

Someone needs to inform Stephen Lunsford that Video Games have PEAKED so no more Metal Gear Solid or Call of Duty games will ever release.   Well, he's just 1 example.  There are countless Stars and Super Stars that enjoy gaming in all sorts of different formats.

We are all GEEKS at heart no matter what our Income levels are or our FAME Status is.
B-Rated actors or A-List actors..Or Janitors.

Disregard Activision's insanely good 2009 lineup of video games because that's just a distraction:

1) XMEN: Origins of Wolverine
2) XMEN: Ultimate Alliance II
4) Diablo III
5) Starcraft II
6) Mystery Case Files  (Big Fish Games)

I just bought a bunch of Case Files games and am enjoying them immensely.

Business has peaked?  Then why is Nintendo already talking about their next system (Wii 2) ?
Building new game systems in 2011 is a waste of money!  Jim Cramer said the Business has Peaked.

Well... He's wrong as always.  But, he's right in the short term.  For a lot of video game companys, 2008 was kinda ugly.  But, not for Activision.  Nonetheless, the joblessness will cut into Video Game sales this year and next.

But, smart businesses know how to use pricing and promotional deals to limit somewhat the impact of Customer Unemployment.  They also know that the Human Population is still rising and every 15 years is another Generation of Video Gamers.

Looking at the Future with a brain that only comprehends the present is so short sighted and limiting that I have to laugh everytime the "Shorts" want to price ATVI below $10. 
This stock couldn't be any safer. 

The only way "Business Has Peaked" in the video games market is if there's a cultural shift towards the "Something else."  Eventually, there will be a culturual shift.  But, when that happens you can rest assured Activision will just change their business model and product lines to reflect what the next leading form of entertainment is.



4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 19, 2009 at 11:14 AM, Schmacko (92.67) wrote:

Man, I love activision, but I think a lot of investors are going to shy away from growth stocks in this tough economic enviornment and stick with safer dividend payers.  I think the stock has a good shot of going lower, but will probably present some interesting swing trade options soonish.

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#2) On February 19, 2009 at 11:41 AM, Varchild2008 (83.81) wrote:

Taking a look at the 5 year Chart I see the possibility of this dropping to as low as $7.50.  $7.50 is it's bottom in that chart.  I do not see this going much lower than that.  This makes buying at $9.50 or less a huge opportunity for long term investors.

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#3) On February 19, 2009 at 12:16 PM, hahawtf (< 20) wrote:

Full disclosure: I have $1k invested in ATVI.

For accuracy sake, the Metal Gear Solid series really is over.  They decided MGS4 was going to be the last one.  Hopefully they will spin it off, or create a similar game, but at this point in time MGS is completely dead now.

Also, if you listened to the investor call last week, SC2 and Diablo III will NOT be making side-by-side debuts in 2009 -- ONE of the titles will launch, they just haven't noted which one yet.

I agree that the stock is going to do well this year -- Investors in ERTS are finally realizing that the games being released are crap.  They paid huge (in terms of lower stock prices) this past year, and are finally starting to flatten out at normal levels.

There are just too many people shorting ATVI for no reason.  They beat expectations, but the stock still took a hit. They have great games and while the last 5 years of the stock would lead you to believe otherwise, there's a lot of room left to grow.

BTW Editor: It's 'companies' not 'companys'..

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#4) On February 19, 2009 at 1:16 PM, RobCH (< 20) wrote:

That list of games isn't even all that great considering what you left off.  Guitar Hero: Metallica should be huge.  DJ Hero has the potential to be big.  But possibly the biggest Activision game to be released this year not made by Blizzard should be Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2. 

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