Want a Friend? Find a Trend ... And then Tell the World.
It has been said many times, in many places "The Trend is your Friend".
When spotting a trend incredible "Egghead Power" is required. The microanalysis stuff is fun, but at a certain point simplicity does Rule. As does common sense.
Looking to 'discern' the current trend? Ask yourself a simple question. Which way is 'UP'.
If you can't answer that question, then I am afraid there is little anyone can do to help.