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portefeuille (99.61)

waterfall

Recs

8

June 05, 2011 – Comments (15)

calls from the "biopharma/instruments sector" made by my player portefeuille. The "sector selection" was not done with all that much care ...



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biopharma/instruments score points: around 6032.

positive/negative score for 167/102 calls.

15 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 05, 2011 at 12:49 AM, portefeuille (99.61) wrote:

I might do the equivalent analysis for zzlangerhans and for zzlangerhans/portefeuille-combined (I need a secretary ...). Or let's just assume it done and go straight to the interpretation of the results. We are the best (as is also suggested here), hehe ...

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#2) On June 05, 2011 at 12:54 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Volitile sector indeed! If you could optimize on the winners and avoid the losers you could optimize on your "spending money"!   Better than a lottery ticket, but a good reminder that when you lose you lose big. 

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#3) On June 05, 2011 at 2:57 PM, portefeuille (99.61) wrote:



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when you lose you lose big

That to some degree depends on when you sell. My "fund" (in the green by around 55% since March 8, 2010, see here) and my portfolio (slightly better performance than the "fund" due to less DSCO exposure and no "hedging" ...) have done alright so far.

 

My player portefeuille has made more score points with the top9 "winners" (around 3935 score points) than it has lost on all 102 "losers" (around -3858 score points).

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#4) On June 05, 2011 at 3:10 PM, portefeuille (99.61) wrote:

That to some degree depends on when you sell.

That to some degree depends on what your "strategy" is.

 

I think this is the prettiest version ...



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#5) On June 05, 2011 at 3:37 PM, portefeuille (99.61) wrote:

I think this is the prettiest version ...

this one.

 



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#6) On June 05, 2011 at 3:44 PM, portefeuille (99.61) wrote:



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#7) On June 05, 2011 at 3:58 PM, portefeuille (99.61) wrote:

#6 same chart with "cumulative score points" line.



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So as long as you have a few "big wins" the losses don't matter all that much ("the dominantly red zones hardly cause a dent") ...

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#8) On June 05, 2011 at 4:02 PM, portefeuille (99.61) wrote:

Now we need to here from anchak how likely it still is that I don't know what I am doing (maybe I have reached "statistical significance" (p < 0.05)) ...

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#9) On June 05, 2011 at 4:03 PM, portefeuille (99.61) wrote:

here

hear

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#10) On June 05, 2011 at 4:06 PM, portefeuille (99.61) wrote:

I would also like to see some waterfall charts from the "end calls in the green by more than 5%, accuracy > 90%" suckers, hehe ...

 

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#11) On June 05, 2011 at 4:50 PM, portefeuille (99.61) wrote:

slightly better performance than the "fund"

pre taxes.

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#12) On June 06, 2011 at 11:32 AM, Mary953 (77.94) wrote:

Good to see you still posting, Porte.  I am investing in roofing, gutters, windows, AC, cars, etc at the moment - we were hit by some of the tornado/hail storms a month ago and are repairing the damage.

While I love the charts, biopharm has been (for me) a major loss, probably because I hit the losers and none of the winners.  I do better to stick with tech stocks.  I understand them a bit better and have more confidence to sit through the rough times where warranted.  With the biopharms, I am fearful so they become true gambles.

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#13) On June 06, 2011 at 12:52 PM, portefeuille (99.61) wrote:

#12 I think one should have a "well diversified subportfolio" of biopharma stocks. Or an ETF like IBB.

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#14) On June 21, 2011 at 9:09 PM, anchak (99.84) wrote:

On this sector my friend - you trounced  the bejesus out of everyone -

But that DSCO call - and the more importantly the weightage really dented your fund.

The above graph does illustrate the virtue of an equal weighting.

 

However - I think its OK - to have some discretionary latitude but a max exposure cap as I mentioned before!

 

All the best.....

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#15) On June 21, 2011 at 9:10 PM, anchak (99.84) wrote:

Recd heavily if I could - for the due diligence and analysis!!!!

 

 

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