We all agree: The consensus is usually wrong.
Everyone knows now that what everyone knows about what the market is going to do is usually wrong.
What do you do with that?
If everyone believes that the opposite of what everyone believes is what is most likely to occur, what do you believe?
How can one be a contrarian when contrarianism is cool?
My take: Events are in control. The thing no one knows is what big events (black swans, etc) will occur (or what feared events WON'T occur) until they do. When they do (or don't) the market will react.
Play the probabilities and hedge your convictions in case something happens (or doesn't happen) contrary to your expectations.
Besides general diversification, I like BRK.B a lot right now. I want low volatility with a chance to capture some upside if that's the way things play out.
How 'bout you?