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alstry (35.45)

We are LOSING OVER 600K jobs per week!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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April 16, 2009 – Comments (12)

It appears many of you think my projections for OVER 30% unemployment is outlandish where I view them as convervative based on the current data and recent press releases from many important corporations and municipalities about future job losses.

My Favorite Foolish Fool TMF Deej and I had a fun exchange in the previous blog......

Let's get a key ground rule down so we are all using the same data....Alstrynomics uses NOT SEASONALLY adjusted U6 Department of Labor stats for his projections.

In a something over a year, this number has about doubled to 16.2%.

Based on current rate of jobs being lost......OVER 600K PER WEEK......it is simply my projection that reported NOT seasonally adjusted U6 unemployment will exceed 30% by the end of the year.

If weekly job losses slow, or the government begins a massive hiring program.....then adjustments will be made to my projections.  At this point, based simply on the current data and current press releases about future job cuts......my 30% projections seems conservative, (especially once you factor birth/death adjustments)......despite what every other so called expert puff.

It is not that I wish these numbers on the ecnonomy, these are the numbers that are presented to Alstry..... and applying Alstrynomics.....these the are conclusions and projections made without emotion or intent to deceive.

I truly wish someone could present FACTS to refute the above projections.

12 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 16, 2009 at 11:27 AM, chk999 (99.98) wrote:

Remember, that's a seasonally adjusted number. The real number is much less.

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#2) On April 16, 2009 at 11:34 AM, alstry (35.45) wrote:

Even if the number is half, we will likely still get over 25% unemployment in about a year.

My question for CAPs players is at what level of unemployment will we start to strain the social and economic supports of our society?????

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#3) On April 16, 2009 at 12:05 PM, awallejr (80.10) wrote:

Wait did you just say even if the number is HALF?  So your quoted 16.2 falls to 8.1 no? And assuming the accuracy of 8.1%, you would still need some MASSIVE layoffs to continue in order to reach your 50% unemployment call.  IBM, MSFT, T, VZ, GOOG, tons of drug/health companies, energy producers, food producers etc. haven't announced any such massive layoffs, though  many have cut around 10%, which seems to be the average layoff rate.  So despite the facts presented to you of actual layoff data from corporate America and their own guidance rates for the future, you just would rather use your own voodoo predicting.

The dire prognosticators are only calling for 11-13% top unemployment rate by 2010, and certainly a 25% rate would "strain social and economic supports of our society." That happened during The Great Depression.

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#4) On April 16, 2009 at 12:09 PM, alstry (35.45) wrote:

No you really smart guy....

Just to clarify my point after already clarifying it a few times

If we only lose jobs at half the rate we are currently losing them now.....300K per week instead of over 600K......

Unemployment will climb to above 25% in the next year or so....

Is there something about my blogging that is opaque to you???

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#5) On April 16, 2009 at 12:22 PM, JTShideler (86.58) wrote:

I think there will be another wave of layoffs coming this July when the third round of increases to the Minimum Wage goes into effect.  I think if your prediction is going to come true it will be near that time frame.  If you graph unemployment with the minimum wage increases you can clearly see the rate of jobless claims increasing the month preceding and the months following an increase.  I graphed it myself but don't have it linked on the web anywhere.

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#6) On April 16, 2009 at 12:26 PM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

To answer your question, with no addtional governmental attention or intervention, my GUESS is the strain becomes apparent at somewhere between 22% and 25%.  This is a WAG and is based solely on my perception of how stressed the "socioeconomic system" appears to be today,

 

Again, this is simply a WAG.

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#7) On April 16, 2009 at 12:28 PM, alstry (35.45) wrote:

JT...I agree...I think this summer we will see another increase in the RATE of job losses....

In the mean time we are losing over 600K per week....pretty incredible number while we wait for a possible increase.

 

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#8) On April 16, 2009 at 12:43 PM, cbwang888 (25.79) wrote:

6M continuing unemployment claims.

Printed money is helping insolvent banks becoming solvent again by cooking their balance sheet  and restarting lending.

Without jobs, people who are in the dire financial situation can only borrow from their credit cards with high interest rat. They will likely default everything and go bankrupt.

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#9) On April 16, 2009 at 12:55 PM, Londamania (63.25) wrote:

You are confusing new unemployment claims (610,000 this week - much lower than expected for the second week in a row) with net unemployment.

"The total number of people remaining on the jobless benefit rolls rose 172,000, topping 6 million for the first time. That’s the highest on records dating from 1967. The figures for continuing claims lag initial claims by one week."

So keeping it simple and ignoring the week lag:  610,000 people filed new claims, but 438,000 people left the unemployment rolls.  Unfortunately statistics on how many of those that left are actually working and how many of them are stuck - are not possible to compile.  We really don't know.

So we have a downward trend and you are misusing one number as another in your calculations.  No matter though - I am sure this doesn't really matter to your main point that the world is going to end, and end soon.  Good luck with that!

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#10) On April 16, 2009 at 1:03 PM, awallejr (80.10) wrote:

Opaque, no, being exaggerated to the point of being morbid, yes.

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#11) On April 16, 2009 at 5:51 PM, KamranatUCLA (29.65) wrote:

i agree with everything you said but 1 thing...you said you might adjust your predication if government announces massive hirings.

But you are forgetting something State and local government is actually reducing its work force. Here in California thousands of teachers have been laid off or completely fired.

DMV workers now only work 4 days a week.

There are talks that even the good old Postal Service will cut it employees hours and there wont be postal service on Saturdays.

If there are any massive projects..like a fast train from los angeles to las vegas...those takes a damn long time to start...

just look at the news today...the world trade center maybe won't be up for decades!!!

What happened to U.S. of A??? 9-11 happened in 2001..8 years later we still don't have a bigger and better world trade center!!! 

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#12) On April 16, 2009 at 8:52 PM, Varchild2008 (84.26) wrote:

*Shrug*  The Department of the Army is hiring.  What with Robert Gate's 2% growth in the Army's Budget....

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