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August 31, 2009 – Comments (9)

For weeks, no make that months, many CAPS players have announced here that we are heading for a cliff. This rally we were in was a fake rally.

I think it is time to call BS. Overnight, stocks in China lost nearly 7%. If we were due for a turn around into bear territory, wouldn't a humongous drop in China have been a trigger? Wouldn't we have corrected something close to that? At closing, we are down 0.5% on the DOW, and just under a percent on the S&P500 and Nasdaq.

Face it, this market isn't going down in the near term. I'm staying long!

9 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 31, 2009 at 4:22 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

It's a tug of war right now and the bears have the ball as of now, but I think it will be short lived unless I see other signs.

If you bought your stocks low, then hold them and stay long.  But if you bought your stocks say July or Aug, I'd be very wary.  Getting into the market now is just suicide if you ask me.  Way too much risk.

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#2) On August 31, 2009 at 4:47 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

leohaas - One index fell nearly 7%...all Asian markets didn't fall 7%.  If US markets were tracking China over the last month, the S&P & Dow would already be close to March lows.  I won't claim that you're wrong to stay long, but I wouldn't base that decision on US market relationships to Chinese markets.

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#3) On August 31, 2009 at 5:02 PM, goldminingXpert (28.62) wrote:

There's no statistically significant correlation between the US and Chinese equity markets (at this time.)

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#4) On August 31, 2009 at 7:00 PM, streetflame (29.31) wrote:

Chinese ADRs and direct listing didn't do that badly today.  I guess the "crash" everyone is talking about was pretty confined to banks? Here are some of the larger US traded ADRs:

CHL -2.1%
CEO -1.9%
CHU -3.0%
LFC -1.6%
PTR -3.0%
CHT -.9%
CISG -5.8%
SNP -2.9%

Okay that's not great but my smaller Chinese stocks seemed to do a bit better.

 

 

 

 

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#5) On August 31, 2009 at 7:08 PM, streetflame (29.31) wrote:

"If you bought your stocks low, then hold them and stay long.  But if you bought your stocks say July or Aug, I'd be very wary.  Getting into the market now is just suicide if you ask me.  Way too much risk."

That doesn't make sense.  Shares don't care when you bought them.  Your past purchases are "sunk costs" and should not affect how you allocate money in the future.

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#6) On September 01, 2009 at 5:20 PM, leohaas (30.09) wrote:

Maybe today is the start of the pullback that has been announced here on CAPS since the end of March?

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#7) On September 01, 2009 at 5:33 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

@streetflame

Well maybe I didn't explain myself as well as I should have.

I bought into the market heavy in March, buying such stocks as GOOG @ $247, MSFT @ $16, and VMW @ $22

I thought these lows were not going to be touched again.  I weathered many dips, and just stood long on all these stocks because the likelihood for those prices to resurface were slim, hence why I said "If you bought your stocks low, then hold them and stay long."

After holding them through the 2nd week of Aug, I cashed all my stocks in and made a very nice sum of money.  I probably shorted too soon, but I did and that's that.  

Is GOOG, MSFT, and VMW goign to get back to those lows?  Who knows, but its a risk that I took selling them and not staying long term.  If I bought them in May or June, I would have sold without a thought and made my 20-30%.  Instead I made close to 50% on those stocks (give or take).  

Does that make it clearer?  Just depends on if you're of the opinion that the March lows will come back or not.

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#8) On October 02, 2009 at 9:11 AM, biotechmgr (< 20) wrote:

See you at the March lows.

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#9) On October 02, 2009 at 9:24 AM, devilzadvocate (< 20) wrote:

Be ready for another 2%+ drop today after yesterday's 2.6% drop.

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