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DigitalDisco (88.62)

Weekly Recap



August 23, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: CBI , OUTR , GMCR.DL

I had two live picks this week so let's see how I did.  I was competing with the S&P, which returned a very beatable gain of .46% this week.

Chicago Bridge and Iron (CBI) - Closed 8/16 at $61.27, closed today at $61.37 for a gain of .16% on the week.  This underperformed the S&P by .30%.  This one started my week out rough by going immediately into the tank but pulled two very strong days to close out this week for a slight gain.  That slight gain still wasn't enough to beat the modest gain of the S&P.  Most of the negative price action seemed to based on macroeconomic conditions rather than anything directly company related and all signs still point to buy for me.  My trade nearly stopped out after I entered it as my stop is set at $58.85 and the stock bottomed out at $59.06 on 8/21.  While the price recovery is nice, I would've liked to see stronger volume over the last 2 up days.

Outerwall Inc (OUTR) -  Closed 8/16 at $62.51, closed today at $63.21 for a gain of 1.12%.  This outperformed the S&P by .66%.  While I was correct that the down days at the end of the week last week prevented this one from getting too far away from its 30 day SMA, it did revert completely back to that average during this week, which I did not intend.  Regardless, it benefited from the pent up buying momentum during the last 2 trading sessions.  Volume support for today's price jump was strong and all 3 of my indicators are still set to buy, so I still like this one.

My picks brought me to 11 for 17 versus the S&P so far, which is just shy of a 65% success rate.  I'll have to continue to get picks under my belt to make sure that I'm on the right track.  As bad as it sounds, I'd also like to see a 2-3 month downturn in the market to see if my strategy still works under those conditions as well.  Now let's see how I did with my stock of interest.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) -  While I made the right call in the eyes of my strategy, it burns to see the results on this one and know that my rules prevented me from pulling the trigger.  GMCR closed today at $85.61 after setting a new 52 week high during this Friday session.  This closing price represents a gain of 12.08% on the week.  This outperformed the S&P by 11.62%.  I probably would have been better to just ignore this stock.  As it turns out, I was correct.  The good session on Monday sent this thing to the moon.  My 3 technicals immediately turned to a very strong buy and the stock backed up that indication.  Oh well, this won't be the only time that this happens.

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