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Well, it IS a bull market



March 07, 2007 – Comments (0)

Who knows how much longer it continues, but for now, at least, it is.

The title is a quote from "Reminisences of a Stock Operator." The character in the book was conveying the simple truth that you can do pretty well by buying and holding stocks in a bull market. Simple right? It's a bull market - don't be a short seller. 

I took this thought to CAPS performance where my first thought was that players who were all long (owners of the "Yes" charm) would be soundly outperforming the skeptics (who have that funny skeptical looking charm). Of course, it's not quite that easy since even as the market moves up it doesn't mean that all stocks are outperforming the all important S&P benchmark. You could lay down an underperform on a whole portfolio and as long as they move up slower than the S&P you can do pretty well (essentially going short a bunch of stocks while going long the S&P).

It turns out that the "Yes" people do actually out perform the skeptics. It's not huge, but it is noticeable. Where the skeptics seem to do really well (looking mainly at Eldrehad and Bent) are shorting the heck out of small, lousy, often pink sheet companies.

It might be interesting to see how CAPS rankings are shaken up in a big market turn (I was a 95 for a bit when the market bit it last week), but my personal portfolio is all longs so I can do without. 


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