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starbucks4ever (97.24)

Well, so much for international stocks

Recs

5

April 27, 2010 – Comments (7)

When I said that the only way to play this game that makes sense to me is by going long USA and shorting everything else, other players called me a US supremacist or said, "sure, China looks a bit frothy, but aren't there good European companies to buy for the long term". Well, here goes your European investment: 

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=EURUSD=X+Interactive#chart1:symbol=eurusd=x;range=1y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Even if European companies had outperformed their American colleagues by 10% during these 4 months (and why would they?), the currency debacle would cancel all that relative outperformance. As it is, buying foreign stocks is now starting to look like a losing trade. And the Eurozone crisis is just starting.

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 27, 2010 at 3:55 PM, vriguy (72.29) wrote:

What goes round comes round. The Euro has had a bad year to date but Germany, France, the Benelux countries and Scandanavia have economies that are, by and large, at least as sound as the US economy.  Those countries are about 75% of the Euro zone economy.  The PIIGS and the east European minnows may have their problems, but we got California, NY, Illinois (25% of our economy) effectively bankrupt as well ...  In the 11 years since the Euro got rolling, the US$ has lost ground to it.

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#2) On April 27, 2010 at 6:24 PM, starbucks4ever (97.24) wrote:

Europe should overcome the crisis. But buying Europe this January was a mistake, just like buying S&P before the subprime crisis was a mistake. There is fundamental analysis and then there is always the question "when". In the very long run, I am bearish on Europe. The place will become Islamic.

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#3) On April 27, 2010 at 6:47 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:



enlarge

(dividends may be treated differently for those indices.)

 

S&P 500 index in EUR in black.

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#4) On April 27, 2010 at 6:48 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

so France and U.S. somewhere in the middle of Italy and Germany, I guess, hehe ...

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#5) On April 27, 2010 at 6:50 PM, Nickalisk (51.04) wrote:

Porte, I notice you taking a lot of "positions" in NBG - what's the insight here?  Is it just a risk-reward play or do you have a deeper reasoning?  I'd love to hear it.

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#6) On April 27, 2010 at 6:54 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:



enlarge

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#7) On April 27, 2010 at 7:04 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

Porte, I notice you taking a lot of "positions" in NBG - what's the insight here?

see comment #18 here, comments #36,37 here and  comments #61,62 here.

So I bought 4250 NBG shares at around 3.45 USD on April 8, sold 1500 NBG shares at around 4.14 USD on April 12 and bought 12000 NBG shares for 2.62 USD on April 27.

Is it just a risk-reward play

(It is always just a risk-reward play (hehe)).

or do you have a deeper reasoning?

There is no deep reason behind these trades. And that is just a "virtual fund", I have never bought or sold any NBG shares.

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