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Predaking (30.34)

What are you expecting out of SLW's earnings call?

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March 01, 2011 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: SLW , GPL , MCZ

Based on all the miner's that have reported so far, I am expecting SLW to have an excellent earning report (yeah, I know they're a silver streamer and not a miner, but we're in the same ballpark here). But as we constantly get reminded of, Mr. Market cares where you are going not where you've been.

I haven't really looked at SLW's numbers lately, so I'm not making any top or bottom line calls. My question is, do you anticipate any unexpected news (good or bad) from the call. Will there be anything that moves the needle?

I thought Sinchi made a comment awhile back that he was happy SLW missed it's revenue numbers last time because it meant they were holding more silver to sell at a higher price later - will that help their numbers? Or have analysts baked that in already?

If you are trading SLW before earnings are you buying or selling? If you hold options, are selling before the call to hedge any risk associated with it?

BTW, GPL is on the move again, up another 10%. MCZ was also up 10%. Copper Fox is taking a much needed break today.

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 01, 2011 at 4:12 PM, Valyooo (99.91) wrote:

Sinchi didn't say that it was someone else that did.  If you like silver, hold slw...i wouldn't over think it here or predict.

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#2) On March 01, 2011 at 4:36 PM, outoffocus (26.88) wrote:

I actually just sold some March calls today.  But it had nothing to do with earnings. I was just taking profits.

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#3) On March 01, 2011 at 4:40 PM, monksnake (55.35) wrote:

This is all speculation, but I believe SLW will do what HANS just did.  I think many people will exit out just as earnings are announced to lock in profits causing a relatively large drop in price.  This will cause many people to buy on the dip translating into a surge in price.  Everyone expects perfection, weak hands will exit on anything but.

Prediction: 4-5% decline followed by 5-7% incline.

Believe it or not, I have been known to be wrong before. 

(FWIW, I'm not willing to bet real money on this, however, I will buy into a decline of price if it is substantial enough) 

 

 

 

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#4) On March 01, 2011 at 5:41 PM, Bays (98.34) wrote:

SLW 3Q

I was the one who suggested the revenue miss will be a blessing in disguise.

Compare silver prices between July - September and Nov - Dec

Silver equivalent ounces produced should be around 6.2m which would equal their guidance of ~23.5m for the year

Silver equivalent ounces sold could be between 6.2 - 6.6m due to the build up in inventory from the delayed shipments last quarter, compared to 4.7m in Q3

Net earnings will be high my friend. 

The only big surprise I could think of would be a dividend, as the market should already know about the build up in inventory, higher silver prices, etc...

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#5) On March 02, 2011 at 10:29 AM, MoneyWorksforMe (47.56) wrote:

I would buy more on a dip...Their chart vs. the increase in silver spot prices looks solid here...I don't think the stock is overbought or overvalued here...

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#6) On March 02, 2011 at 12:26 PM, Predaking (30.34) wrote:

Apologies Bays for not accurately recalling your comment about the revenue miss. It looks like a blessing in disguise in hindsight, so kudos to your foresight.

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#7) On March 02, 2011 at 9:18 PM, Bays (98.34) wrote:

It wasn't really foresight as they released the news in early November, so I already knew silver prices were much higher and I guess I was lucky that they continued to go higher until year end. Nevertheless, thank you for the compliment!

I'm guessing $100+ oil is cutting into the producers' margins, but it will not affect us one bit!  Just another reason to hold SLW for the long term.  ;)

My Sandstorm Gold warrants will be the next ten bagger!  

Cheers,

 

 

 

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