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dwot (99.54)

What did I say about CROX in January?

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April 15, 2008 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: CROX

 Things about the market that get me is the degree to which it takes off without any fundamental support, like CROX taking off to $75/share...

You can make some predictions about the health of a stock and do a reasonable job at it, but CROX is one that I had a negative hundred or two hundred or heck, maybe even negative three hundred, I forget.  It was my biggest underperform loser for a time.

So, when that sucker finally came down so it was positive, well, I was sufficiently frustrated with it that I closed it as soon as I could get away from without losing points.  What can I say, I still didn't like it, but I don't trust the market to be logical.

Well, the market finally caught up to my initial sentiments on the stock, but I was closed out on it.  Because I have looked at this one, I did look at the financial reports last January, and definitely there were problem identified.

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=30582&t=01004034443672390362

 

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 15, 2008 at 8:19 PM, nuf2bdangrus (< 20) wrote:

That would apply to First Solar today, which I thumbs down AGAIn just before a runup.  Despite their growth potential, their market cap  BILLION is an insane valuation to their real growth potential.  I am short real money, and am feeling the pain.  Sure thing it will correct, just a day or two after I cover the position.

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#2) On April 15, 2008 at 8:41 PM, kdakota630 (32.05) wrote:

I didn't get hurt by CROX as badly as you did, but I ended up dumping it fairly quickly for fear that it was going to jump up irrationally on me as well, like so many of my other picks have.

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#3) On April 15, 2008 at 9:09 PM, abitare (99.44) wrote:

I did good with my CROX CAPS underperform. But I had $6K
 in CROX put options that expired worthless in OCT 07. I could have made some real money.... CROX is a Hedge fund pump and dump. Same fund that is running up FSLR, DRYS, DECK.

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#4) On April 15, 2008 at 9:42 PM, cubanstockpicker (< 20) wrote:

great call for crox dwot. Sometimes, the best puts are he ones you have to wait for though. I got hammered with lend now lend.dl. It went up 86 points on my underperfom call before going bankrupt. I let it go two weeks it went under before because it was killing my rating.

As I have learned very clearly now, its better to wait for the trend to in the stock to play out completely. I underperformed it after you recalling to me the days of parachute pants, bobos, keds, and other "instyle" items that always look stupid. I will be on the lookout for the next useless item, like a Crox, the glorified flipflop.

When you get up to my shoe size (13), those crox start looking like a pair of clown shoes.

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#5) On April 15, 2008 at 10:06 PM, dwot (99.54) wrote:

kdakota, I didn't take a caps loss for it, ended it almost neutral I believe, something like up 1or 2%, which I believe makes it neutral to your pick score.

nuf2bdangrus, I am kicking myself on first Solar.   That was one on P/E without looking at the growth potential.  I do think it is ahead of itself right now and it has some serious limits to growth for now, but I'm not so sure I every get out of this one positive.  Tellurium is in short supply.  It is as rare as rhodium.  Three years ago tellurium was about $10/kg, now it is about $300/kg.  Rhodium is at $9000/ounce, or $290k/kg...  I truly don't know anything about the sizes of the markets, or how easy it is or isn't to increase supply.  But, there's a heck of a difference in cost between two equally rare metals.  Right now I estimate they are paying $6/panel for tellurium, but $100/panel wouldn't surprise me.

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#6) On April 15, 2008 at 10:08 PM, dwot (99.54) wrote:

Size 13 feet, big feet cubanstockpicker...

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