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EScroogeJr (< 20)

What happens when we run away from Irak?

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May 22, 2008 – Comments (11)

I'm wondering why this issue receives so little attention, but the fact is, the US economy is now looking an athlet running with 20-pound dumbells attached to his legs. From the investing standpoint, the cowboy's Irak adventure was a godsend because this is one reason we still can buy stocks so cheaply. This is not PE=3, to be sure, but putting illusions aside, stock prices are as cheap as they are likely to get. All right, but everything good comes to an end, and this includes stock sales. 7 months from now Obama will walk into his Oval Ofiice, and the first thing he will do is tell the troops to take to their heels. So there'll be hundreds of billions of savings, the equilvalent of receiving Bush's stimulus package next year and the year after that, etc., except the money will be real, not printed. Of course the troops will not run away in one day, it will take some time and even some frictional costs, like printing several millions of leaflets to convince ourselves that we won, but the markets also don't need to wait till the last moment. For example, when Bush said the stimulus checks will arrive in May, the market rallied in February. So we have at least one catalyst that is all but certain to begin affecting the market in Dec-Jan. How strong this catalyst is going to be? Well, if Bush's one-time (and highly inflationary) rebate took us from 12000 to 13000, shouldn't we expect a more permanent and more real tax relief to do at least as much? All other things being equal, if the Dow holds the 13000 level in Dec, I'll expect the Christmas rally to take us to 14000 in the conservative scenario, and 15000 by the end of winter will not be out of the question.

P.S. If we go up today with this news release, then an athlet with dumbells is a bad example. A more fitting analogy is an air balloon with $165 bln worth of ballast in the gondola. 

"The 75-22 vote also added billions of dollars in other domestic funds such as heating subsidies for the poor and money for fighting wildfires to funding for military operations overseas.

Shortly afterward, the Senate voted 70-26 to approve $165 billion to pay for military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan into next spring, when Bush's successor will set war policy. All told, the measure contains $212 billion over the coming two years, plus about $50 billion more through 2017 for veterans education benefits."

11 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 22, 2008 at 5:31 PM, LordZ wrote:

WHat a waste of time and money in IRAQ, it almost seems like it would have made more sense to just kill everyone... and let God sort it out.  Oh I doubt that idiot Obama will be strolling into the white house as the president, unless hes there delivering pizzas.

 

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#2) On May 22, 2008 at 5:33 PM, LordZ wrote:

Also nice negative score there with DRYS

LMAO.....

bet you wish you didnt mess with DRYS..

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#3) On May 22, 2008 at 5:53 PM, EScroogeJr (< 20) wrote:

Yes, DRYS is a notorious short killer. Every top player shorted it and got his a.. handed over to him

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#4) On May 22, 2008 at 6:55 PM, cubanstockpicker (20.64) wrote:

"The 75-22 vote also added billions of dollars in other domestic funds such as heating subsidies for the poor and money for fighting wildfires to funding for military operations overseas."

Actually that might be a good thing, being that the 165 billion has a very generous provision for Iraq veterans to go to college and get healthcare. It might even create a job boom.

I may also be in disagreement with many a fool, but I think the Obama plan to lower taxes for domestic run companies, and increases on taxes on "domestic" companies with large foreign operations will also be an  added stimulus. Bush and his bushonomics giving tax cuts to domestic companies exporting jobs allowed for many high paying jobs to go across the many ponds to other countries which helped perpetuate their emerging market growth and status. It also killed quite a few high paying jobs here back in 2000-2003 when he only helped contribute to the last bust we had.

By the way I dont want to turn this into politics 101, but the fact is, anyone who wants to be rich, just follow the money. The money is now in "green" and oil, follow it, cause its there now.

You wanted to make money in 2002-05, setup a call center/tech support phone bank in the Phillipines because you paid almost no taxes.

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#5) On May 22, 2008 at 6:58 PM, caterpillar10 wrote:

......random 'thoughts...

national lampoon NLN has fixed their listing issues w/AMEX....

......i surely hope this means president OBILLARY will not EXXONerate the actions of hugo chavez and mr. akminijihad and BPrepared to MOBILize a diplomatic surge to severely scold these OILy miscreants and take them down a PEG or 2. 

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#6) On May 22, 2008 at 8:06 PM, FleaBagger (29.46) wrote:

Like puns, caterpillar?

Scrooge - Do you seriously think that Obama has a chance of becoming president? And if he were president, do you really think that money saved from not being in Iraq will be any less wastefully spent? Fat chance.

Obama is no different from LBJ, and look how much he accomplished. He took us from one of the best, least-inflationary economies in our history into rampant poverty and inflation. Socialism, whatever it makes you feel good to call it, never works (at making the poor better off, anyway; it has done wonders for making politicians more powerful, and, in small doses, for making the rich richer). It has never worked at what it claims to set out to do, and it never will.

By the way, McCain is probably going to be almost as bad as Obama would be.

Have a nice day! 

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#7) On May 22, 2008 at 9:16 PM, abitare (33.77) wrote:

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#8) On May 22, 2008 at 9:22 PM, EScroogeJr (< 20) wrote:

"Do you seriously think that Obama has a chance of becoming president?"

Alas, it's not just a chance. It's a near certainty. Unless he is videotaped carrying a suitcase full of money out of the senate, he will get the top job.

"Socialism, whatever it makes you feel good to call it, never works".

Well, I wouldn't be so categorical. Socialism has its strengths, but what certainly never works (or, rather, works too well, depemnding on who you ask) is socialism run by capitalists and subordinated to capitalist interests, and it is this brand of socialism that we really have in the US.

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#9) On May 22, 2008 at 9:47 PM, misterpickles (< 20) wrote:

Amen Scrooge,

The US has not been a capitlist society in a long time.

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#10) On May 23, 2008 at 2:15 AM, caterpillar10 wrote:

oh, i wish it was just about puns but i believe that OBILLARY willinfact be the next president of the uuunited stayuts of americaah....and i like mccain alot - just moved from AZ after 11-12 yrs. and seen his work close up - plenty of good stuff on his watch... he has more moral courage than any 4 people i've ever met on their best days...his backslidin' is normal republican politics 2get the fire&brimstone set on board - 1 small problemo -  the man has 1 foot in the grave - local news: he looks & sounds like he just got up from being run over by a bus, but we all know he's for real so people very patiently wait 4him2 cut2 the chase n it's all good - but will a nat'l audience be able 2c him in the same lite? so far he looks remarkable on the shows'n'such but his schedule is relatively lite now&he has the full retinue w/make-up, briefings and physician w/ a lil' u know, bumpski4 those critical media windows.....

hanging in the balance - this is the clincha - the point to the seemingly pointless BILLARY campaign - are the under educated, lo-paid peckerwood set.....no coalition will work w/o them....whether obama likes it or not, & i'm real sure he don't, he will have to put 1 hand to the ol'sackerooni & the other 2pinch his nose n let the demos broker OBILLARY to keep th woods in tow - if he stands on pride - the woods will gamble on mid-term alzheimers (worked4regan) and go mccain.

OBILLARY vs mccain is a photo finish.....but here's my edge: i just had a OBILLARY nightmare which is why i'm back up typin this drivel and my nightmares come thru @4/5 in favor....the good one's? oh hell no - like where i find alladin's lamp'n'shaq puts the regulators'n'treehuggers into a trance while i turn the continental shelf into swiss cheese and edge out boone pickens as the oilman's oilman or where the ufo drops off a stacka 200 yr. ahead of the curve hi-tech blueprints'n'i take over the world - nah-nevah happens, just the nightmares....buh bye       

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#11) On May 23, 2008 at 2:26 AM, abitare (33.77) wrote:

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