anticitrade (99.58)

What I didn't sell.

August 16, 2010 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: UGP , NETC , VIV

It's tough to say for sure, but I think the market is going to get worse before it gets better.  I have been watching rail time indicators, inventory levels, the debt market, and various other factors for several months now and the positive news seems to have peaked and now be dropping.  Now that pretty much all the Q2 news is out, I just don't see a lot of giggles and smiles in store for us during the second half of this year.  While I do not believe that we will see a drop of the same magnitude in early March of 2009, I suspect we will reach about a 950 range for the S&P 500 towards the end of this year.  The nature of this call stands in stark contrast to my usual optimistic nature, but a realistic approach seems more prudent than an optimistic one when dealing with investing. 

So what does this mean?  Well I have sold 75% of my positions and am now sitting on cash.  The following is a list of the positions that I didn't sell.

AOB - Several investors I most respect are fans of this stock.  Just look at its 5 year price performance and compare it with its 5 year operating performance (particularly the revenue line) and you will see why I think this is worth holding on to.

CSR - I like this stock for exactly the same reasons as AOB.

DFZ - I am waiting for the earnings release on 9-8-10 before I sell since I think that will boost the price.

ENDP - Steady growth, small beta, and favored by other investors I respect.

TNDM - This company has produced solid results and yet the stock price keeps dropping.  Eventually reality has to correct this anomaly and I want to profit when it does..

AMED - Gamble based on lawsuits and SEC investigation, but I am willing to kick this horse a few more times before moving on.  I think the current price represents an emotional rather than rational reaction to recent news.

GME - I don't buy the "blockbuster" parallels made in relation to this company.  It will be 3+ years before brick and mortar game stores become irrelevant.

UGP, NETC and TSP - I am bullish about Brazil, and from my analysis these are the best fundamental stocks (that are US traded) to own.

I hope this provides some direction for others.  My current portfolio here on Motley Fool is pretty oudated, I hope to find time to purge it and fill it with a new set of picks sometime soon.

Good luck! 

(As usual I recommend applying your own due diligence and analysis before buying any of the stocks mentioned above.  I am skeptical about anyones ability to predict the macro economy, including my own.)