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jddenton (< 20)

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what in the world



November 05, 2014 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: SSYS , DDD , DASTY

I am new to Motley Fool and a new member of Stock Advisor. Guess you could say I am a new Fool...and I feel like a fool about now too. I followed the Fools 3D advice and purchased SSYS, DASTY, and DDD and am takiing a beating along with everyone else that owns these stocks. SSYS is down 13.09 today alone. I want my Chevron back...don't get me wrong, I do believe that the 3D marketplace is in its infancy and we have barely scratched the surface with its use and capability. I'm not a fools fool, am I? 

3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 05, 2014 at 8:54 PM, phexac (< 20) wrote:

DDD seems a typical stock advisor pick, explained as a "good company in an industry with huge potential" that is always a good buy, with zero attention given to at what price. There was never mention that most of its revenue growth was through M&A and not organic. Nor was there ever an attempt to address the point that 3D printing isn't new, has been around for ages and the consumer domestic market is tiny and there is a good probability that it will not amount too much since few people are lining up to print their own poor quality plastic spoons at several dollars a pop (not to mentioned an expensive printer).

 If you look at history of stock advisor, you will see that the vast majority of their picks are average at best and the results are mainly based on a huge win on a couple of stocks such as Amazon picked a long time ago. If you go by their numbers, since 2011, they have underperformed the S&P500. When you look at those numbers closer, you will see that the purchase prices for stocks are almost always lower than can be had on the day of the recommendation (and often for weeks around that date) meaning their advertised results are, at best misleading, and at worst completely bogus.

As for the quality of picks themselves, they seem to tend to pick random hail Marys overhyped stocks that tend to run up and then crash because their rosy future, such as a 3D printer in every home, never comes close to panning out.

The most annoying of all, is the attitude that a stock is as good of a buy at PR of 15 to 20 as it is at PE of 50+

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#2) On November 05, 2014 at 10:04 PM, notyouagain (42.68) wrote:

You don't need a newsletter. Read the articles. Read some good investing books. Learn how to pick companies you like and know why you like them and be able to explain it with numbers based on what you learned from their financial statements.

What sense of accomplishment can anyone get from blindly following a newsletter, anyway?

And CVX is a heck of a good dividend stock. I hope you didn't sell it to play stock market roulette (speculate).

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#3) On November 06, 2014 at 3:09 AM, swedenclunk (33.66) wrote:

I think SA is a good point to get some new ideas. Also its has a long term view. That then has drawbacks, and coverage is rapidly out of date.

For me the financial metrics are never put forward for companies. It tends to be intangible arguments. As an advisory sheet it should discuss what metrics are being used by the market to price the stock eg growth rate, or price to sales, or gross margin etc. That way buyers/sellers can think a little for themselves about entry price. Not having a reasonable price band makes SA a poorer product.

For myself the question I tend to ask is at price X, how much more price growth would be reasonable. I do ok at buying, but have to admit I find it hard to sell, and tend to ride through a high and follow down to a big loss from that high, even thou stock is still in profit. On DDD I sold a third reasonably close to the high, so I am learning. But MNST I sold thru boredom, despie my original thought (Coke to buy in), and so lost a 40% gain.

 I also don't like sitting on cash, and I have to get better at that:-)

It's ok to like a stock but not the price. For now, I never buy at a PE of over 50, and always look to sell at over 100 unless there is a very good basis for holding eg AMZN taking cash to invest in future revenues. Sure these limits are not perfect but it help me take the "addicted to risk" emotion out of the price a bit. 

as I say, Im learning every day, don't beat yourself up, and think of it as a lesson. 

back to DDD, I think given the enthusiasm SA shows for a stock and the history is always available, they should really have someway of saying to people our key metric has/has not changed significantly. I dont mean a buy, hold, sell recomendation, more of a "be carefull, here be dragons", stock price is 100% higher than when we recomended it but the key metric is only up 50%. This could easily be done.

  DDD I am still long, at this price/ratio I am comfortable with a three year time scale.


My favourite stock=CMG, culture and growth, with execution. 

hope your future buys bring you success

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