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XMFSinchiruna (28.57)

What it means when TMFSinchiruna's CAPS score goes from 99 to 13 to 88 to 16 in a single week

Recs

45

August 15, 2008 – Comments (32) | RELATED TICKERS: CEF , SLW , AUY

Absolutely nothing.  :)

The appearence of a technical breakdown in the bull market for silver and gold is all smoke and mirrors... a panic-driven snowbal effect brought about by admittedly cunning dollar intervention with the critical help of the ECB. As the dollar spikes up, the floor beneath it is eroding away as the disconnect between the dollar fundamentals and the present action grows wider. The amount of dollar-negative news that has come to light during this mini-rally will catch up to the greenback. The central banks have exerted their control over the currency, but every intervention has consequnces. The consequences of the Fannie and Freddie bailouts, the continued degradation of the credit markets, the mounting foreclosures, the next dominoes of credit card and other types of debt... none of these consequences have been priced into the dollar as yet... and that is how I know the greenback's rally is unsustainable.

Being 98% long commodities, in unrealized terms I have lost 20% of my total assets since early July. I have not sold anything, and intend to hold fast for $1,650 gold on the way to $2,000, and $50 silver on the way to $100 and beyond.

Despite wild swings in investor sentiment at the drop of a FED's hat, hyperinflation of the type experienced in the Weimar Republic has been locked in by the actions already taken. I understand completely if many Fools have been spooked right out of gold and silver and other commodity investments, and for any realized losses Fools may have incurred I certainly feel your pain. Some of you may recall I did sell some holdings in a relative panic during the 2006 correction. But oh how my resolve has strengthened since then, and my conviction in the inevitability of a continued decline for the dollar. I remain focused on the long-term trend and the macroeconomic picture.

Any fools sitting with cash on the sidelines and wondering what to do... while I will certainly not attempt to call a bottom to this event, I will say that over the long-term I believe with every bone in my body that gold below $800 and particularly silver below $13 represent a significant long-term opportunity regardless of whether it's an absolute bottom.

I have been out of touch with the blogs for many days as I've been busy writing about all this... so I'm keen to hear everyone's thoughts about this whole debacle. If you've exited pms or commodities altogether, I want to know about it. If anyone needs some reassurance or has questions about this, please don't hesitate to e-mail me, and I'll try to get back to you over the weekend.

Here are some of my recent articles:

Kinross Gold's Earnings

Jaguar Mining's Earnings

Coeur d'Alene is seriously undervalued

Eagle Bulk Shipping

Ternium Steel

Yamana looked good, and is among the cheapest out there

Silver Wheaton... the no-brainer of the century  :)

Goldcorp hiccups

Stay away from Barrick - see comments below article

Diana is a long-term hold

 

 

32 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 15, 2008 at 3:21 PM, kdakota630 (32.05) wrote:

Good to have you back, Sinchy.

Glad to see your score isn't affecting your outlook.  Mine's been all over the place too.

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#2) On August 15, 2008 at 3:47 PM, motleyanimal (97.57) wrote:

With these picks, you either hit a home run or strike out.

While I am in general agreement and have taken a few hits recently, these are the days when moderation and diversity pay off.

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#3) On August 15, 2008 at 3:58 PM, anchak (99.85) wrote:

Chris man....I noticed that yo-yo too....its happening to me also - somehow I have become a Financials Bear and Commodity Bull on CAPS - not exactly by design - but happened because I wanted to track some of these companies.

I am trying to look for that level - personally I bought.

AUY post earnings - down 20% already.
HL: Up (????) : 2%
I am keeping on DCAing on CEF.

Sniffing on AEM. SLW is you favorite silver miner? I was thinking of PAAS. Also between GSS,CDE ( Speculative).

 

 

 

 

 

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#4) On August 15, 2008 at 4:16 PM, biotechmgr (58.14) wrote:

What this means is that you are down 20%, have not employed stop losses, and have been wickedly seduced by the commodity bubble. I wish you the best, but I am sure you will be more surprised and perhaps awakened when gold retraces eventually to $600. Good luck holding those extreme positions...having too concentrated a position could be a problem.

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#5) On August 15, 2008 at 4:41 PM, XMFSinchiruna (28.57) wrote:

biotechmgr

I'll be just fine, thanks.  :)  If we get back down to $600 I'll sell my car and buy more CEF.  :)

anchak

I bought some CEF today.  :)  SLW is lowest risk for silver IMO, but PAAS is god too. My favorite in the group, though, is Great Panther... which I paid anywhere from $0.70 to $2.50 for... but you lucky Fools can pick up for under $0.90.

AUY is a steal

 

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#6) On August 15, 2008 at 4:42 PM, givmeabreak (29.97) wrote:

Sinch, right on bro. 

I am so glad about the recent pullback and all the lemmings out there suggesting the metals/commod. bubble has popped. What a great opportunity to still get on board. Especially if you can keep the 3-5+ yrs holding mentality.

Investing is just like politics. The masses keep the system going by wasting their time (and money) arguing over stuff they really don't know or understand.  Attention spans are too short- term. Trade in and out. Chase results. Love to name drop companies and models they really don't know. Try to make simple things complicated to sound smart. Spend lots of time blogging (arguing) instead of making money (or a difference).

The wise observe, laugh, and keep things simple AND SEE THEM FOR WHAT THEY ARE.

Which is why I always go back to my favorite motto:KISS; Keep It Simple Stupid.

The following commentary sums it up best to all those who think they understand the dollar, how commodities are popped, oil controls the value of the dollar, our demand and consumption is what drives the world economy

I do not give credit to the author, becasue I do not want to be accused of being a shill for an investment service.

August 15th:

"Economists who now see American troubles spreading around the world are predicting that foreign central banks will ignore the gathering inflation threat and follow the Fed down the rate cutting path. Similarly, they argue that since the downturn began here, the U.S. recovery will likely be underway while the rest of world is still decelerating. These assumptions have prompted a rally in the dollar, a sell-off in gold, commodities and foreign stocks, and have cast doubts on the ability of foreign economies to “decouple” from the United States. Investors should not take the bait.

America does indeed pose a global threat, but not for the reasons these economists suppose. Foreign economies are suffering not because Americans have slowed their voracious spending, but because they are defaulting on hundreds of billions of dollars of existing loans underwritten by lenders around the world.

The conventional wisdom is that foreign economies depend on Americans to buy their exports. This is false. The global expansion of the past decade has created new demand everywhere, and people and businesses in all corners of the world are spending. However, in America, spending has largely been achieved through a massive vendor financing scheme. Foreign supplied credit has allowed Americans to continue buying, even while American income and savings have dropped. As this credit goes bad, the losses are landing on the bottom lines of foreign financial firms. In other words, the global pain is not resulting from American contraction but from having financed our preceding expansion. This is a critical distinction few have been able to make, and it is vital to appreciating the decoupling that has already occurred beneath the surface.

The current losses that banks in Europe and Asia are now suffering are real, but future losses can be avoided by suspending future lending to Americans. Shutting off this credit will of course torpedo the dollar, but that is precisely what must occur. By allowing the dollar to drop to its natural, unsupported level, not only will the American caboose be decoupled from the global gravy train, but the rest of the cars will move along the tracks much faster. Absent the U.S., there will still be plenty of consumers to buy what is produced, and plenty of investment opportunities for those with savings. Rather than dragging the global economy down, such a development would actually un-tether it.

On the other hand, left to its own devices, the American economy will implode. There will be fewer products for American consumers to buy and very little savings for anyone to borrow.

Some foolishly believe that many of the world’s problems result from dollar weakness, and that pushing the dollar back up would be good for all. For example, since the weak dollar is contributing to the rise in oil prices, a stronger dollar should help bring prices down. However, if foreign governments weaken their own currencies to push the dollar up, they will simply succeed in bringing oil prices down for Americans. Oil prices will go up for their own citizens. This can’t be an attractive bargain for any European or Asian political leader.

The weak dollar is merely a manifestation of substantial structural problems underlying the American economy. Unfortunately for us, the solution to those problems, as well as the global economic imbalances, can only be found in a weaker dollar. Efforts to artificially prop the dollar up will only exacerbate those imbalances, and make its ultimate fall that much more severe."

Sinch, you seem to be right in line with the entity above. (did not want to mention the name directly). I follow them and started an account. Just curious if you know who it is.

-givmeabreak

 

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#7) On August 15, 2008 at 4:51 PM, GNUBEE (24.29) wrote:

No worries,

It's only CAPS. You are still a resource for us who really believe that in the age after the meltdown of financial hocus pocus, useable, tradeable commodities will gain in value. (at least until the next magician arrives) Your track record helps save us time by being able to learn from your experience.

Community Intelligence is the name of this game, so keep adding to our COIN. hopefully some of us can make some from it!

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#8) On August 15, 2008 at 5:13 PM, LordZ wrote:

WOW at all the people wishing commodities to pop and die.

Oil is still very expensive, inflation is high, yet a weaker world currency temporarily making the dollar look better than it actually is  and everyone runs to the exits as if some fat chick let out a huge smelly tuna ladden fart.

Yeah deflation..... LMAO.....

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#9) On August 15, 2008 at 5:13 PM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

Could you please answer a question? How much of the sell of is due to all the mad hatters who had to sell good stocks because they were caught in a margin call. If the s & p 500 is at this point how much do you think it will fall when trading houses like gs and others have to sell to cover their next round or write downs that will go on for at least 6 more years?I like holding the silver and gold coin because with all of the debt of the country and government if the FED called in our debt they now own the entire country.

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#10) On August 15, 2008 at 5:28 PM, givmeabreak (29.97) wrote:

Sinch, right on bro. 

I am so glad about the recent pullback and all the lemmings out there suggesting the metals/commod. bubble has popped. What a great opportunity to still get on board. Especially if you can keep the 3-5+ yrs holding mentality.

Investing is just like politics. The masses keep the system going by wasting their time (and money) arguing over stuff they really don't know or understand.  Attention spans are too short- term. Trade in and out. Chase results. Love to name drop companies and models they really don't know. Try to make simple things complicated to sound smart. Spend lots of time blogging (arguing) instead of making money (or a difference).

The wise observe, laugh, and keep things simple AND SEE THEM FOR WHAT THEY ARE.

Which is why I always go back to my favorite motto:KISS; Keep It Simple Stupid.

The following commentary sums it up best to all those who think they understand the dollar, how commodities are popped, oil controls the value of the dollar, our demand and consumption is what drives the world economy

I do not give credit to the author, becasue I do not want to be accused of being a shill for an investment service.

August 15th:

"Economists who now see American troubles spreading around the world are predicting that foreign central banks will ignore the gathering inflation threat and follow the Fed down the rate cutting path. Similarly, they argue that since the downturn began here, the U.S. recovery will likely be underway while the rest of world is still decelerating. These assumptions have prompted a rally in the dollar, a sell-off in gold, commodities and foreign stocks, and have cast doubts on the ability of foreign economies to “decouple” from the United States. Investors should not take the bait.

America does indeed pose a global threat, but not for the reasons these economists suppose. Foreign economies are suffering not because Americans have slowed their voracious spending, but because they are defaulting on hundreds of billions of dollars of existing loans underwritten by lenders around the world.

The conventional wisdom is that foreign economies depend on Americans to buy their exports. This is false. The global expansion of the past decade has created new demand everywhere, and people and businesses in all corners of the world are spending. However, in America, spending has largely been achieved through a massive vendor financing scheme. Foreign supplied credit has allowed Americans to continue buying, even while American income and savings have dropped. As this credit goes bad, the losses are landing on the bottom lines of foreign financial firms. In other words, the global pain is not resulting from American contraction but from having financed our preceding expansion. This is a critical distinction few have been able to make, and it is vital to appreciating the decoupling that has already occurred beneath the surface.

The current losses that banks in Europe and Asia are now suffering are real, but future losses can be avoided by suspending future lending to Americans. Shutting off this credit will of course torpedo the dollar, but that is precisely what must occur. By allowing the dollar to drop to its natural, unsupported level, not only will the American caboose be decoupled from the global gravy train, but the rest of the cars will move along the tracks much faster. Absent the U.S., there will still be plenty of consumers to buy what is produced, and plenty of investment opportunities for those with savings. Rather than dragging the global economy down, such a development would actually un-tether it.

On the other hand, left to its own devices, the American economy will implode. There will be fewer products for American consumers to buy and very little savings for anyone to borrow.

Some foolishly believe that many of the world’s problems result from dollar weakness, and that pushing the dollar back up would be good for all. For example, since the weak dollar is contributing to the rise in oil prices, a stronger dollar should help bring prices down. However, if foreign governments weaken their own currencies to push the dollar up, they will simply succeed in bringing oil prices down for Americans. Oil prices will go up for their own citizens. This can’t be an attractive bargain for any European or Asian political leader.

The weak dollar is merely a manifestation of substantial structural problems underlying the American economy. Unfortunately for us, the solution to those problems, as well as the global economic imbalances, can only be found in a weaker dollar. Efforts to artificially prop the dollar up will only exacerbate those imbalances, and make its ultimate fall that much more severe."

Sinch, you seem to be right in line with the entity above. (did not want to mention the name directly). I follow them and started an account. Just curious if you know who it is.

-givmeabreak

 

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#11) On August 15, 2008 at 5:31 PM, givmeabreak (29.97) wrote:

OOPS. sorry for the repeat comment. dang refresh feature.

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#12) On August 15, 2008 at 7:03 PM, russiangambit (29.98) wrote:

This is what happens when gazillion hedge funds chase the same trade. Market lately is like an ocean with higher and higher waves coming and receeding and most tradeers get washed out on the shore. I am amazed I am only down 5% from the high of last years in my portfolio. It takes a lot of ard work just to stay afloat.

I bought some commodities last week , hoping for a bounce. So far, they are only going down.

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#13) On August 15, 2008 at 7:26 PM, nuf2bdangrus (< 20) wrote:

Buy when others are selling with panic, and sell when others are buying with abandon.

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#14) On August 15, 2008 at 7:39 PM, Nainara (< 20) wrote:

While my outlook for the dollar is the same as yours, Sinchiruna, I am beginning to wonder if the dollar's decline will necessarily cause a corresponding spike in gold. According to the world gold council, as of 2007, only about 2% of all gold reserves are in the hands of private and institutional investors. This means that just under 98% of all gold reserves are held by governments.

Of this, the US government claims to have something like 8,000 tons or 26% of total world reserves. (Although the claim can't be independently verified) The IMF, a puppet of the US, has 3,000 tons or about 10%.

This is worrisome because the current attitude of this administration and congress toward investors and "speculators" strikes me as being downright vindictive. In fact, when I look at commodity prices lately, sometimes I see the faces of Cheney and Paulson scowling back. (But that may just be me, I'm pretty sleep-deprived by the end of the work week!) Likewise, some democrats are even advocating using the strategic petroleum reserve to crash oil prices and thereby "punish speculators" in their own words.

My concern here is that if the US or its allies decide to manipulate gold to quash anti-dollar speculation, they can do so almost indefiniately simply because the market is unable to absorb even a miniscule fraction of the piles that they're capable of mobilizing.

I'm seriously considering reducing my exposure to CEF and shifting that capital to a commodity index such as GSG which would be much harder to manipulate over any duration of time.

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#15) On August 15, 2008 at 10:00 PM, abitare (99.44) wrote:

Commodity bubble goes POP! Amercians are saving the FED will tighten the dollar is recovering. If the current geo political did not rally gold and oil, I might consider covering some position.

Can oil fall to $50? eyp, gold to $500 yep. If the war expands more with Iran oil and GLD will rally

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#16) On August 15, 2008 at 10:46 PM, toutisf (87.56) wrote:

The anti-american bashing here is truly pathetic and the doom and gloom prophecies are just wishful thinking.The US is the world economic powerhouse and you like it or not it will recover.US will not implode, what a joke to say that!I am not saying buy this or buy that (DYODD) but be careful of false prophets.Congrats on your pick Chris, truly pathetic.

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#17) On August 15, 2008 at 10:48 PM, toutisf (87.56) wrote:

The anti-american bashing here is truly pathetic and the doom and gloom prophecies are just wishful thinking.The US is the world economic powerhouse and you like it or not it will recover.US will not implode, what a joke to say that!I am not saying buy this or buy that (DYODD) but be careful of false prophets.Congrats on your pick Chris, truly pathetic.

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#18) On August 15, 2008 at 11:17 PM, binv271828 (< 20) wrote:

I am totally with you. My rating is currently hovering around 0.15-0.05, which means I am in the worst 250 (out of 62000) players club ... :)

But I am with you. I am not worried. I have not closed any Caps picks, and I most definitely have not sold out of real life. In fact I bought some more CEF and SLV today. This is panic selling in gold and silver by the hedge funds, and panic buying of the USD. All of this is also happening during the August doldrums, which is historically when there is a pullback in gold and silver during the year. All this (in my opinion) makes a perfect buying opportunity. Can gold and silver go lower? sure. Will it? Maybe. But this overbought rally of the USD will turn around, and gold and silver are ultimately going higher.

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#19) On August 16, 2008 at 4:16 AM, jester112358 (29.54) wrote:

For any who think the $ is the place to invest and the financial sector will outperform commodities like oil, corn, wheat etc., I have the following two questions:

 1)Would be prefer to hold a CD denominated in US$ paying about 3% or one in Brazilan Reale paying about 13% or Austrialian $ paying 8%?  (Hint: the rate of inflation is lower in these countries than the US)  If you prefer the higher rate of return then you can understand why in the long run (the next several years), investors will be selling dollars in order to buy currencies of countries with high interest rates and low current account deficites.  This US$ carry trade could be enormous especially when the middle east oil producers stop accepting US$ for oil.

2)If you could trade all your dollars right now to buy enough oil, food shelter, and medical supplies to last your lifetime would you do it?  Or would you prefer to take your chance with inflation and the future buying power of the $?   We can generate as much currency as we have paper, and credit/debt as we have banks, but our natural resources are finite and the world population is growing exponentially.  So, what really has intrinsic value?

So, owning real things always trumps fake things like pieces of paper.    By-the-way,  those who believe commodities are in a long term down trend might want to step back the time magnification on their charts and look at the last three years of any commodity producer or commodity and plot the 200 day moving average.   Ditto for the so-called strong US$.  Then do the same for the financial sector.

 Commodity bulls-stay the course.  Patience is the most important attribute of successful investing.  Do the Chinese and Japanese-our largest creditors want to own US$ or rice, corn, oil, coal, steel natural gas etc.  and the companies that produce them?  Which would you rather own if your survival was critically dependent on these things?  That's all you need to understand the long term secular bull market in commodities.

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#20) On August 16, 2008 at 9:02 AM, givmeabreak (29.97) wrote:

Thinking that the dollar is gonna be worth less is not anti-American. It is with disgust that we are at the point in time where we have to face this reality.

It would be un-american to stay on board with the dollar, blindly rooting it on to say we are not anti-American.

See things for what they are, not what you want them to be. Take the emotion out of your investing, all you commodity bears and dollar bulls.

The party that has been driven by debt is ending. But nobody wants the music to stop. WHEN it does, will you have a seat?

Out of all the charts you could look at regarding the topics in this thread, the two that hit me the hardest everytime are the %of houshold debt since 1950's till now. And the one that shows our savings rate.

And inflation rates (actual inflation, not the bogus CPI) would be the kicker.

How will the savings rate change if people are living paycheck to paycheck. Then add in recession and unemployment. How will these folks save? So, the savings rate ain't goin' up anytime soon.

Around the globe consumption of all kinds will rise, and it will be at the expense of the US. Their is only finite amounts available. If someone's consumption goes up (because their currency rises more over time, provide better buying power), it means somebody else's goes down.

It might not be in 2008 or 9, but we are headed for very tough, tumultous times. To think otherwise is naieve.

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#21) On August 16, 2008 at 12:31 PM, RainierMan (42.40) wrote:

I always enjoy reading the dire scenarios of those who hold gold, and I say that earnestly. I learn a lot from them, and they have some interesting analytical ideas. However, history is rife with dire predictions, many of which come from really intelligent people, and they just do not pan out. Peter Lynch points this out in one of his books. So, I have to wonder if as various processes play out in a somewhat complicated way, processes start entering into the equation that were not foreseen, and so the dire predictions do not occur. I'm not smart enough to know how things will pan out, but when I see quality companies with massive financial clout and a global presence, on sale, that to me seems like a pretty safe bet. Gold, on the other hand, I could not begin to evaluate in the face of global problems. 

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#22) On August 16, 2008 at 1:45 PM, ajm101 (33.74) wrote:

I've disputed the 'gold as money' thesis here, but I'm constructive on the gold, silver, and PGM producers, too (and I'm feeling it on AUY and FCX personally).  Totally different reasons, though: I think that the US dollar will strengthen (which will lead to increase gold purchases in the US and countries like India and China that can be heavy gold consumers if the middle classes expand).

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#23) On August 16, 2008 at 3:01 PM, Tastylunch (29.97) wrote:

I respectfully disagree Sinchiruna, it does mean something if you score falls like that! (FWIW mine has gotten really whacked as well.)

What it means to me is that your picks aren't likely diversified enough across sectors.

Even the best can't predict the unpredictable (Wars, PPT action, natural disasters etc) so it does pay I think to not have all your eggs in one basket. How many basksets is a different question.

Love your stuff keep at it man.

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#24) On August 17, 2008 at 12:22 AM, rudolphsteiner (< 20) wrote:

I'm with you. As always, I'm more confident on energy, and have been forced to pick up a little more of my favourite stocks at these low prices. However I also just added a little more CEF with the intention to take profits when all this blows over.

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#25) On August 17, 2008 at 9:09 AM, XMFSinchiruna (28.57) wrote:

Tastylunch

I certainly won't sit here and say I recomend that others go all in like I have... :) It's been a gradual process... I started with some diversification... but everytime pms and energy stocks have gone on sale, like now, I have felt the need to buy. While I'm quite sure I will go back to a more traditional asset allocation formula once this whole big economic mess has run its terrible course, for now I see this is the best way I know to preserve capital. I'm not even aiming to make loads of money here (although my speculative junior miners are geared towards that), I'm just trying to preserve assets so I have something to invest after the Second Great Depression... that's when I'll buy the blue chips that are left standing.

This is just the path I've chosen. Again, I am not advocating that anyone go all in like I have, but I do think this is an important time for every Fool to seriously consider having a decent percentage allocation to gold and silver in their portfolios.

MichaelinWA

Gold is the easiest asset class of all to evaluate in the face of global problems. History is your friend. :)

binv271828

Your courage is well noted here. If memory serves, some of your purchases were right before the March correction started. The whole point of this intervention by the central banks has been to shake the newer, less fortified long positions out of the market in advance of the next up-stage (in my opinion). Your refusal to be shaken out, and to realize that apparent losses are just that unless you sell, is the mark of a corageous investor who knows a solid investment thesis when he finds one. Well done!

toutisf

By all means disagree with my ideas and strategies if you wish, but please do not profess to know what's in my heart. I am deeply disturbed by the financial woes this country faces as a result of fiscal irresponsibility by those in power and the criminal bastions of greed that created the markets for securitized debt instruments. I take no joy whatsoever in watching these crises unfold as I feared they would several years ago. I feel deep remorse. I feel compassion for those who will lose their shirts... their homes... their livelihoods. I fear the future... I do not revel in it.

AresFinancial

Wow... we definitely disagree on that one.  :)  Boy would I love to see $500 gold so I could back up the biggest truck I could afford... :)  It won't happen.  The dollar has no legs. There never was a commodity bubble to begin with... just a long-term secular bull market that's just getting warmed up.

Nainara

I too see the likes of Cheney and Paulson scowling back at us commodity longs, but that won't shake me out. All the intervention in the world can't prop up the dollar sufficiently to prevent the world from moving assets into gold.  I would check those calculations, too... I see 721 tonnes gold just between GLD and IAU ETs alone, which is fully 2% just among those... and those do NOT represent the entirety of the global private and institutional investments in gold.

Thanks for the comments everyone!!

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#26) On August 17, 2008 at 10:46 PM, Tastylunch (29.97) wrote:

Fair enough Sinchiruna.

I sincerely hope your prediction of the 2nd great depression doesn't come to furition though. Nobody really wins in that scenario.

Best of luck to you and us all!

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#27) On August 18, 2008 at 8:15 AM, SqwiiToN (< 20) wrote:

Hi sinchiruna :-)

 

As I wrote for some months ago under another blog from "Sqwii" i posted that Oil will fall from 150$ to 103-108 dollars a barrel and mostly when oil falls gold will fall...

 So about gold prices then it will be quite neutral and swing up and down between 800-950 USD pr ounce.

 So I am expecting that gold stocks like AUY is really really cheap right now as I soon will see a major rally in gold and silver stocks. I think that in late August Gold will be about 900$ ounce. But it will swing up and down and be neutral the next month about 900-950 USD, but right now it is a really really good buy. 

 

If you look technical at the gold it is extremly oversold and is ready for a bounce and the US dollar is overbought so when we see the USD decline we will see the gold rise as oil rise again.

 

This is a really good oppurtunity to buy... and AUY is the best buy ever right now as I want to buy some mor ESV and RIG.

 

Best Regards

 

SqwiiToN 

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#28) On August 19, 2008 at 10:38 PM, dexion10 (28.25) wrote:

CNBC said that that we've seen the "nail in the coffin" of commodities.

That is your buy signal...nothing better than that.

If you look at three year charts of both gold and oil (use the USO... you'll see that both are sitting on support or a trendline right now... sure they could fall to a lower trendline but I woudn't sell an ounce until we see them break significantly lower... for gold I'd need to see it mill around 760 for over a week... and for the USO I'd need to see it well below $89... if that doesn'thappen then I'll just stay long baby!

I've been blogging on nat gas stocks as easy commodity bets right now and I'll be writing more soon.

See my blog here   

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#29) On August 19, 2008 at 11:33 PM, abitare (99.44) wrote:

I do not like the dollar, but there is a commodity bubble. It is deflating as central banks raise rates. Iceland offers 15% etc... The US dollar is in major trouble ref: my UDN.

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#30) On August 22, 2008 at 6:43 PM, toutisf (87.56) wrote:

The USD might be sick but look at the Euro.Stop telling me it is not an overinflated currency!Europe problems are as huge as the the ones we have here in the US (though they might be differents)The problem I have with gold is that gold correlation to the USD is striking. If gold doesn't decouple from USDX then if other currencies fall faster than USD what is going to happen?I believe real estate will find a bottom by beginning of 2009 so with many banks trying to unload their inventories before year's end (executives bonuses being in line) then you might get good deals on REO.Gold is just a mirror of fear. When I see it has just been going up because Russia invaded Georgia I say WTF?I am not saying go long USD but might be bottoming here (unless a major crisis or event unfold as we are on the edge)BTW, Buffet closed his 21B$ bet against the USD so that should tell you something.Nothing is safe now, not even gold.And as you I despise the crooks in DC or WS but what can I do?

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#31) On August 22, 2008 at 6:43 PM, toutisf (87.56) wrote:

The USD might be sick but look at the Euro.Stop telling me it is not an overinflated currency!Europe problems are as huge as the the ones we have here in the US (though they might be differents)The problem I have with gold is that gold correlation to the USD is striking. If gold doesn't decouple from USDX then if other currencies fall faster than USD what is going to happen?I believe real estate will find a bottom by beginning of 2009 so with many banks trying to unload their inventories before year's end (executives bonuses being in line) then you might get good deals on REO.Gold is just a mirror of fear. When I see it has just been going up because Russia invaded Georgia I say WTF?I am not saying go long USD but might be bottoming here (unless a major crisis or event unfold as we are on the edge)BTW, Buffet closed his 21B$ bet against the USD so that should tell you something.Nothing is safe now, not even gold.And as you I despise the crooks in DC or WS but what can I do?

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#32) On August 24, 2008 at 4:05 AM, Donnernv (< 20) wrote:

Sinch:

 I don't talk much.  But your basic feelings are right.  I have $1MM in GLD and $1MM in SLV in real life.  My money is where my mouth isn't.

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