What it means when TMFSinchiruna's CAPS score goes from 99 to 13 to 88 to 16 in a single week
Absolutely nothing. :)
The appearence of a technical breakdown in the bull market for silver and gold is all smoke and mirrors... a panic-driven snowbal effect brought about by admittedly cunning dollar intervention with the critical help of the ECB. As the dollar spikes up, the floor beneath it is eroding away as the disconnect between the dollar fundamentals and the present action grows wider. The amount of dollar-negative news that has come to light during this mini-rally will catch up to the greenback. The central banks have exerted their control over the currency, but every intervention has consequnces. The consequences of the Fannie and Freddie bailouts, the continued degradation of the credit markets, the mounting foreclosures, the next dominoes of credit card and other types of debt... none of these consequences have been priced into the dollar as yet... and that is how I know the greenback's rally is unsustainable.
Being 98% long commodities, in unrealized terms I have lost 20% of my total assets since early July. I have not sold anything, and intend to hold fast for $1,650 gold on the way to $2,000, and $50 silver on the way to $100 and beyond.
Despite wild swings in investor sentiment at the drop of a FED's hat, hyperinflation of the type experienced in the Weimar Republic has been locked in by the actions already taken. I understand completely if many Fools have been spooked right out of gold and silver and other commodity investments, and for any realized losses Fools may have incurred I certainly feel your pain. Some of you may recall I did sell some holdings in a relative panic during the 2006 correction. But oh how my resolve has strengthened since then, and my conviction in the inevitability of a continued decline for the dollar. I remain focused on the long-term trend and the macroeconomic picture.
Any fools sitting with cash on the sidelines and wondering what to do... while I will certainly not attempt to call a bottom to this event, I will say that over the long-term I believe with every bone in my body that gold below $800 and particularly silver below $13 represent a significant long-term opportunity regardless of whether it's an absolute bottom.
I have been out of touch with the blogs for many days as I've been busy writing about all this... so I'm keen to hear everyone's thoughts about this whole debacle. If you've exited pms or commodities altogether, I want to know about it. If anyone needs some reassurance or has questions about this, please don't hesitate to e-mail me, and I'll try to get back to you over the weekend.
Here are some of my recent articles:
Kinross Gold's Earnings
Jaguar Mining's Earnings
Coeur d'Alene is seriously undervalued
Eagle Bulk Shipping
Yamana looked good, and is among the cheapest out there
Silver Wheaton... the no-brainer of the century :)
Stay away from Barrick - see comments below article
Diana is a long-term hold