What TMF could have been
For the past year...a number of the TMF bloggers have said this blog provided little investment insight. That it was too negative....that it didn't provide much benefit or solid ideas.
Let's look back and see what Alstrynomics warned about....
It warned that the banking system was insolvent.
That residential real estate was going to implode and likely not recover for many years.
It warned that unemployment was going to skyrocket.
That the earnings on the S&P were going to turn negative.
That cities and states would likely go bankrupt.
It indicated that unemployment would skyrocket.
Commercial RE vacancies was going to be huge.
Retailers would shut down in numbers we have never seen before.
Airlines would go out of business.
Hotels would be in trouble.
Technology spending would slow.
Bankruptcies would reach levels we have never seen before.
CRE debt would start defauting and ever increasing rates......
That wages and prices of just about everything would decrease and Deflation would follow
So what did Alstry do.....basically red thumb everything in sight and go to cash for safety......it ain't to difficult to guess what to do when the mother of all economic tsunamis is coming........run to higher ground.....it ain't too complicated.
Now..... the wave is just hitting the shore and the visible destruction is about take place.
Instead of TMF being the Nuriel Roubini or Nasim Taleb of the media investment world...it chose to ridicule Alstry and Alstrynomics.....now most of the TMF CAPs players are under performing the market and experiencing negative ACTUAL returns in real life.....
It is not that Alstry is laughing nor is he ridiculing TMF or its writers....on the contrary......he feels bad for TMF and those that chose to follow the advice.....but the next time TMF or its writers chose to make fun of another player or his ideas.....make sure it or they look at themselves first........some of the predictions have been pretty funny and the results even funnier.
Who knows what the future holds.....but I have little doubt about one thing......it is highly likely when most of you become very bearish and the whole world looks dark.......Alstry will be one of the first bulls in the ring with a very very optimistic outlook.......
Fool on my fellow Fools......