What to du, what to du?
I don't know what to call this post, so it's just a post about what I'm about to du, because I can see making some moves very soon. So, here it is:
First thing I'm going to cover all of my shorts, probably within a week or two, unless we have some sort of foolish rally. If we rally, then I won't cover my shorts and I'll just wait for a Dow around 7500 to du that. We're going to fully retest the market bottoms again before inflation takes hold in a year or two, I am sure of this. What I'm not sure about is if we are going to blast through those bottoms- this is important to remember for part two of the soon to come strategy. But I du know the easy short money has been made. That's why other shorts who have been short awhile who you see online or TV here and there are gradually covering too.
Next, I'll be entering some lowball ETF orders and if I get'em, I get'em, if I don't, I don't. I think this is a good approach given my current portfolio, which is basically market nuetral, and I still feel we aren't to the extreme edge of a range yet.
I'll have a back-up list of screened stocks- which you can see in my caps list, just in case the market makes me be a stock picker again (something I'm good at, but frankly don't have the time for given my other duties and interests). If I have to buy 20 stocks to wrap around some commodity ETF/ETN positions, so be it. It wouldn't break my heart to own the GEs, ABBs, FXCs, JOYGs, SIs, CX (notice no banks)... of the world from around single digit prices. I'd just prefer to own a couple ultra/2x ETFs instead if the market makes the trade easy enough. I'll check out that new Rogers ETF, maybe that's the ticket. Maybe there is an industrial ETF I'll like. Any ideas fools???
On commodities, what I really like, other fools are on this one too, UCO, because oil ain't going to be $40 in two years. I won't buy it until the oil trend levels off, but I'll get it eventually. I like DYY because it tracks well and I'm not afraid of ETNs with national support, I've started to buy it. Also RJA as it's the best ag index out there and Sweden backs that ETN family, I've bought at 10 and 8 so far. I could like a nat gas play too if Boone and Obama really hit it off good.
Oh, speaking of Obama and commodities, somehow those things reminded me that I've been accumulating PBW since $12. I think you should too, probably gradually get it to 10% of a portfolio.
So, there it is in a nutshell, I'm almost done shorting, I think, again. Regardless, the first three months of 2009 will be for accumulating, maybe even into the first three quarters of 2010 depending on things. I'm going to make sure to be on the right side of inflation for the next decade for sure, as it's coming folks, it's coming.
OH, a word on bonds. Over Rated! Govt bonds are going to get killed soon. TIPs are manipulated. Corps really are that bad off and the coming recpatializations are going to be brutal. All this talk about equity like returns on high yield doesn't make sense to me as return is a relative thing. Think about it, equity like returns from when, a couple years ago, or what we're going to see in a year or two? There might be one great year for high yield, but that's it. Not sexy enough for me, and no safer than picking equities well. For my money, it's almost time to own some equity again, of course only of companies that are cash rich, will benefit from stimulus and won't have to recapitalize OR have some kick butt model that supercedes finances- which of course means go back to the first kind for most of your money.
OK, there's one type of bond maybe I like, a little floating rate for balance I guess, but not much.
The more I think about it, the more I like exchange traded funds and note (from companies with national backing).
Anyway, just summarizing. Ask a question if you'd like, I feel chatty.