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What will happen next?

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May 06, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: SKF , SRS , BOM

Short-term, I think we're due for a pull-back.  I think the market has GOT to take a breath.  Maybe a pull back to 850 on the S&P would be in order.  I kind of expect it to happen after the stress test numbers are formally released tomorrow (you know buy the rumor and sell the news type deal).

Then again, I kept expecting the market to stop going down for 18 straight months and I was wrong month after month after month, so what the heck do I know?

One thing that I do know is that most of the people who kept telling me that red-thumbing the ultra-shorts back in '07 (am I a master market timer or what?) would take me 30 years before they would be positive are turning out to be incorrect.  Granted a few of my picks from back then are REALLY negative, but even SKF is just about break-even (in CAPS terms, it is down over 30% from where I thumbed it).

My bullish outlook for the long-term continues.  Call me a perma-bull.  Call me an optimist.  Call me crazy.  I have history on my side (well other than those calling me crazy).

1 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 06, 2009 at 6:53 PM, TDRH (97.30) wrote:

I agree on the pull back, but then see a long flat line - not death, but stagnation / little growth for two years.   This does not mean that individual companies will not prosper, but overall it is not going to be a sawtooth recovery.

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