What's a Fair value for FORD shares if Q1 eps is 38 cents?
What if (F) Ford reports an EPS of 38 cents per share in Q1?
First of all if the average EPS is 38 cents per share by the end of this year we would be talking about a 12 EPS of $1.52.
That seems fantasy when Analysts are currently expecting 2010 EPS of $1.01 for FORD.
But.... My 38 cents EPS isn't entirely off the mark considering FORD has beaten the most optimistic analyst in the past 4 quarters by a range of 4 - 10 eps.
The most optimistic analyst according to SCOTTRADE CHARTS shows a Q1 eps of 37 cents.
A 4 cent beat on the high goes quite higher than my 38 cent expectation....it is 41 eps.
Ford beats by 4 eps from the high estimate and that means the average 38 eps quarter to quarter or a $1.52 becomes extremely likely from extremely unrealistic.
Because the next quarter's biggest optimist is marked at 35 eps on the high and this Q2 will include in JUNE the sale of FORD FIESTAs. FIESTA goes into production in Mexico starting in MAY. 4 cent beat on the high is 39 eps.
So that's 1/2 of the year in which it is reasonable although optimistic as heck to expect FORD to produce earnings well above my 38 EPS per quarter average.
After that... It will be extremely tough for the staunchest pessimistic analyst to have a full year EPS expectation during Q3 all that much lower than $1.52.
This makes me excited to say... that even at $1.50..... shaving off 2 cents...
FORD at 10 P/E should be a $15.00 stock. With the excitement surrounding FORD FIESTA in full effect this coming THIRD Quarter... FORD trading anywhere below $15.00 a share would be an extremely good time to buy.
So... If that's the case and today we have FORD at a 12 handle.... How is FORD...fairly priced today? Much less overpriced? FORD at 12 is well underpriced....