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November 06, 2011 – Comments (10)

In the last year, there hasn't been a day without an Alstry spam on the "Newest Blog Posts" list, which is an automatically generated list that highlights 5 of the most recent posts from respected CAPS bloggers.

But I don't care about reading spam.  I want to see the balance sheets of individual stocks lovingly deconstructed and opined about - the kind of work that TMFEldrehad and floridabuilder used to do on a regular basis, and that we still see from folks like rd80, Seth Jayson, Rick Munarriz: a small group of folks I think of as 'the good guys'.

So I'm going to challenge all you bloggers out there who are reading this.  You can call it the 'ikkyu2' challenge if you like.  Sometime in November, I want you to post one blog entry, on a specific stock that you are calling a 'buy' at current prices.  And in that blog post, I want to hear about valuation, growth prospects, free cash flow, and all those other good statistics that can be found in, or derived from, publically accessible SEC filings.

Ready, steady.. go! 

10 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 06, 2011 at 6:20 PM, TMFNoCeilings (94.67) wrote:

I'll bite.

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#2) On November 06, 2011 at 6:36 PM, shamapant (80.61) wrote:

im so in, sorry cuz i know my posts are the most useless posts ever...i only post questions. However, even given my relatively amateurish investor status, I bet i could find something real to offer. It will happen.

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#3) On November 06, 2011 at 9:27 PM, rd80 (98.30) wrote:

After being mentioned in such esteemed company as TMFEldrehad, fb, Seth and Rick, how can I refuse the challenge?

I'm in.

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#4) On November 06, 2011 at 11:46 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.69) wrote:

Can I still tell jokes?

Yeah I'll give it a shot :)

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#5) On November 07, 2011 at 12:36 AM, goalie37 (91.65) wrote:

Sounds good!  I'm in.

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#6) On November 07, 2011 at 4:22 AM, walt373 (99.81) wrote:

I believe in good old-fashioned fundamental analysis. However, I think we are at a critical juncture in the macro environment. Depending on the outcome of the ongoing crisis in Europe and the probable crisis that will come out of China, we can have very different economies. The range of possibilities has rarely been larger in the post-war period.

This reality is coupled with the fact that valuations are not cheap enough to have a margin of safety if the global economy does take a turn for the worse. This contrasts with valuations seen at the last bottom in 09, where the economy was looking dire but some valuations were so cheap that no macro view was needed to invest. This time around, it seems to me like anyone who invests in any economically sensitive companies is making a macro bet whether they want to or not.

The intrinsic value of any stock can be severely impaired if there is a decade-long slump in earnings power. It can be even worse if earnings power is based on an underlying demand bubble, like for housing and financial stocks during the boom. This time around, commodities and construction may be the victim if China's property/infrastructure bubble is as big as some make it out to be. Reasons like these are why I am spending more time looking at macro these days. It is at the heart of valuation for the vast majority of companies.

There are of course stocks that move independently of the economy. Finding these and getting that uncorrelated return is like the holy grail of stock investing. I would love to hear some of those ideas.

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#7) On November 07, 2011 at 10:02 AM, djemonk (< 20) wrote:

All Glory to the Hypnotoad

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#8) On November 07, 2011 at 10:09 AM, griderX (96.20) wrote:

@ walt373

"There are of course stocks that move independently of the economy. Finding these and getting that uncorrelated return is like the holy grail of stock investing. I would love to hear some of those ideas."

Right on Walt...you nailed it with that above statement!

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#9) On November 15, 2011 at 6:57 PM, kirkydu (93.80) wrote:

it's on

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#10) On November 16, 2011 at 7:48 PM, shamapant (80.61) wrote:

complete

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