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What's the current sentiment regarding the direction of the market?

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May 16, 2010 – Comments (7)

What do the fools here think? Are we going up or down for the next few months? I just wanted to hear some opinions.

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 16, 2010 at 3:18 PM, Frogtree71 (< 20) wrote:

Slowly up as confidence in the recovery returns.  Dow will reach 12,500 by yeaar end; won't drop below 10,500...probably not below 10,600.

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#2) On May 16, 2010 at 3:41 PM, vriguy (74.35) wrote:

Both up and down. It could be vertigo-inducing if the swings are large enough.  Probably end the year lower.

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#3) On May 16, 2010 at 5:27 PM, 1315623493 wrote:

We're in for a double dip recession and here's why. Europe is in a debt crisis. China is trying to stem its economy's over-inflation. The dollar is at a 52 week high. Unemployment is still high. Commodities and 10-Year Treasury Bond Yields have fallen into the second quartile of their 52 week range, meanwhile, the S&P500 is still in the third quartile in its 52 week range. This indicates a disconnect between stocks, commodities, and bonds. Unfortunately for bulls, this disconnect is against stocks. 

Comment #1, don't think the US economy is somehow immune from the rest of the world. There will be no 12,500 this year. My models indicate the Dow below 9000 this year. 

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#4) On May 16, 2010 at 5:43 PM, TLassen (59.82) wrote:

we're in for a 3 year cyle bull market, here's why: "Europe is in a debt crisis. China is trying to stem its economy's over-inflation. The dollar is at a 52 week high. Unemployment is still high. Commodities and 10-Year Treasury Bond Yields have fallen into the second quartile of their 52 week range, meanwhile, the S&P500 is still in the third quartile in its 52 week range. This indicates a disconnect between stocks, commodities, and bonds"

bottom line, no one can claim to know the future. Long term seasoned investors understand the futility in making investment decisions based on short term economic/political conditions.

Capitalism will survive.

Cheers 

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#5) On May 16, 2010 at 9:19 PM, sholessjoe1919 (97.97) wrote:

down now, probably to 9500 ( this would be a buying opportunity)

End of year 11300.

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#6) On May 16, 2010 at 10:17 PM, dpdoor (29.04) wrote:

If you look at a chart of the dow it has crashed when it crosses 11,000 for 12 years. 11k is were it was at the end of the 20 year run up that followed the 20 years of being flat. The 2007 bubble was not justified, it was money coming out of real-estate with no were better to go. So 11.000 is were the dow should be for a good healthy growing economy. We are worth 8500 but since we expect things to get better, optimism puts us at about the 10 year average of before the bubble which is 9600. So I say it is worth 9600 since I am seeing more activity, more new cars on the road, and people starting to remodel their homes again.

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#7) On May 16, 2010 at 11:15 PM, 1315623493 wrote:

#4, Tell me how a stock market appreciates with high currency value, low bond yields, high volatility, and falling commodities prices. It's cool if you're a buy and hold investor, but no need to bomb on the traders' game. 

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