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When Did We Last See Insane Insider Dumping of Stock?

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October 30, 2010 – Comments (8)

I have no data, I just know when I looked at insider selling it seemed insane in 2007, prior to the fall crash.  It seems insider selling is insane these days.

 

"Top executives at these very same companies bought just 38,000 shares over that same time period, making for an eye-popping sell to buy ratio of 3,177 to one. "

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 30, 2010 at 12:07 PM, dbjella (< 20) wrote:

Are you going to do anything based on this information?

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#2) On October 30, 2010 at 12:28 PM, topsecret10 (< 20) wrote:

   We have topped on the DOW per my post...    Economy Is stuck In neutral,market has priced In a Republican landslide on Tuesday. It's SELL THE NEWS time !!!    :)    TS

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#3) On October 30, 2010 at 12:41 PM, BillyTG (29.15) wrote:

dwot,

zerohedge closely follows the insider sell to buy ratio (though they last reported a 229:1. with insiders buying up intel, GE, monsanto).  FYI, BLOOMBERG supplies the data.

There is enormous uncertainty about the economy, about the Fed's actions.  Like all money matters, those at the top make their moves first, and eventually the low-level TMF and Main Street investors catch on, usually after it is too late.

When you factor in the light trading volume, huge amount of HFT transactions, and an unbelievable level of Fed activity to keep the market propped up, it becomes very apparent that anyone with money in the market is gambling at this point.  An absolute gamble.  Just like playing roulette in Vegas.  This is not investing.

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#4) On October 30, 2010 at 1:00 PM, BillyTG (29.15) wrote:

dwot, not sure if you plan on looking any further into this ratio, but if you find a chart of the ratio history I'd like to see it. 

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#5) On October 30, 2010 at 2:54 PM, ikkyu2 (99.26) wrote:

This is a relatively short term indicator - 2 years looking forward at most.  If your time horizon is longer than that it really doesn't matter.

Also, the guy points out that AAPL was one of the companies he looked at.  Unlike many of the other stocks he mentions, AAPL is at an all time high and a lot of insiders made some very well publicized transactions in the last couple of weeks.

I know a lot of AAPL employees, and their financial advisers tell them the same things I do: when 98% of your net worth is tied up in AAPL options, it's time to diversify your holdings, because 98% of your net worth in one vehicle is needlessly risky for a person who on paper has such a high net worth. 

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#6) On November 02, 2010 at 2:07 AM, dwot (42.57) wrote:

dbjella,

 No, not going to do anything with the information.  I am not currently vested in the market.  I bought a house and put in a suite. I am getting a 5-6% return on my home investment from the suite.  I have spent a fair bit putting in the suite and doing some renovations, but the 5-6% return is on all of the renos and the price I paid.  If you were to factor that I am no longer paying rent the return works out to more like 10-12%.

 I am looking into natural gas.  I think that will eventually be good, but right now I think there is going to be a huge shake down that squeezes out the small players.  There is something like 5.2 trillion cubic feet of gas being stored in wells right now and the price is down.  That is a huge supply available and likely to keep the price down.  A lot of companies have hedges giving them in the range of twice the current price and when these hedges run out, well, the companies are going to see their revenues dive and some will fold.  I think there is going to be insanely good buying opportunities coming along.  I outperformed on gas companies on CAPS, but as I have looked closer I think I am too early in doing that.

The other thing, I think we are going to see a huge switch to natural gas as we have so much of it.  I did a quick and rough calculation of the value of the natural gas we are sitting on where I live and it came to trillions, so I need to go back and look at my figures closer.  I took my students to tour Spectra Energy this past week.  Our guide said that there was 100 year supply of natural gas.

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#7) On November 02, 2010 at 3:08 AM, dibble905 (< 20) wrote:

dwot,

5.2 trillion cubic feet of gas is approxtimately 5.2 billion mmbtu's (assuming 1000 btu per cubic feet). At current prices of $3.292 per BTU (last price of natural gas futures contract expiration), I am wondering how you arrived at trillions of dollars of natural gas? If anything, that's barely $17 billion worth.

The most recent EIA study shows the most optimistic number at around 2600 trillion cubic feet of proven and unproven reserves (The proven amount is less than 10% of that). This works out to about $8.6 trillion worth.

Now that's more like it.

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#8) On November 02, 2010 at 5:41 PM, dwot (42.57) wrote:

Lol, I said I needed to look at my figures closer.  I knew I was missing something, which was a conversion factor.  The Horn River Basin is estimated to have 25-50 trillion cubic feet that is recoverable.  I am going to a drill site in the Horn River Basin tomorrow.

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