When to Sell the Gun Maker Stocks?
Disclosure: I am long SWHC, with 100% of my portfolio, I hold no other stock postions besides gun makers since Feb 2009. I posted my position in a blog post on: 17 Feb 2009: Long Smith & Wesson Holding (SWHC). Top Ten Story: Guns and the Constitution: A legislator finally gets it Follow Report -
Since my recommendation of the gunmakers in Feb 2009
1. OLN is up 46%
2. RGR was up 750% now is 550%
3. SWHC is 247%
So when to sell? When they pry the gun stocks from your cold dead hand!
Actually, let review when to sell - from April 16, 2009,
Fool Knows: The Gun Craze is Just Getting Started (Part 2). Guns: A Better Buy Than Stocks
Lets review my 25 March 09 post. CHANGES IN BOLD
I know Fools that followed me into this trade are wondering when to get out of it. SWHC is up over 110% since I posted on it 17 Feb 09.
I took out some of my leveraged, but I am not getting out of this trade based on a price, but more on a time line or specific events I expect to see in the coming months.
My WAG is the gun craze is just getting started, in 6-12 months it will get nuts, IMHO
Some things I am looking for:
1. You will see people camping outside of sporting good stores waiting for ammo shipments
We are close to that here:
60 Minutes: The Way Of The Gun
Americans are buying guns and ammunition at a startling rate despite the economic downturn. As Lesley Stahl reports, the economy, as well as the election of Barack Obama may be the reason for the run on guns.
April 12, 2009 5:03 PM
2. Jim Crammer will do a show on guns
60 Minutes will do?The Way Of The Gun
WSJ 16 APR 09Fear and Greed Have Sales of Guns and Ammo Shooting Up
FAYETTEVILLE, Ga. -- The way Jay Chambers sees it, the semiautomatic weapons in his firearm collection might be the most promising investment in his financial portfolio.
Like many gun enthusiasts, Mr. Chambers, a manager for a door wholesaler here, believes President Barack Obama and the Democrats in Congress soon will reimpose a version of an expired federal ban on the sale of so-called assault weapons. If such a law passes, he figures his collection -- enough guns, ammo magazines and weapon parts to assemble about 30 AK-47s, AR-15s and other semiautomatic rifles -- could triple in value. "A guy could easily make a lot of money," says Mr. Chambers, 47 years old, while at Autrey's Armory, a gun store a
12 Apr 09
3. A new IPOs on ammo makers are created
Matter of Time
4. Families will put down their PS3, XBOX 360s etc... and will be going to the gun range
Yep, it is happening big time. Call you local shop for a class and ask.
5. There will be more sporting events and shows about guns coming to a theater near you
It is happening and is gaining momentum
6. Factories will re-tool to produce ammo and guns
Matter of time
7. Tariffs will block out foreign weapons imports.
Again for you Fools, that do not buy into this story, just wait, you will see.
You are seeing it and you will see it more.
Since my post 17 Feb 09 look at the media.
Guns: A Better Buy Than Stocks Andrew Jeffery
Apr 16, 2009 1:10 pm
WSJ catches on: Fear and Greed Have Sales of Guns and Ammo Shooting Up
APRIL 16, 2009
Reuters is telling us what Fool already knows:
In American crisis, anger and guns:Bernd Debusmann
By Bernd Debusmann
WASHINGTON, March 19 (Reuters) - In the first two months of this year, around 2.5 million Americans bought guns, a 26% percent increase over the same period in 2008. It was great news for gun makers and a sign of a dark mood in the country. Gun sales shot up almost immediately after Barack Obama won the U.S. presidential elections on November 4 and firearm enthusiasts rushed to stores, fearing he would tighten gun controls despite campaign pledges to the contrary. After the November spike, gun dealers say, a second motive has helped drive sales: fear of social unrest as the ailing economy pushes the newly destitute deeper into misery.
My posts on Guns here:The Solution. What is more rare, harder to find then gold......
March 22, 2009 Violence Until Debt Jubilee and Jim Rogers (03 Mar 09)
March 06, 2009Net Long the US Market! (Ultra-shorts and Guns and Ammo)
March 05, 2009
Obama Promises To Stop America's Sh-tty Jobs From Going O......
Detroit: Homicide Down, No One Left to Kill
March 03, 2009
Barron's writes what Fooldom Knows, the Consumer is Buyin......
March 01, 2009 When in Africa do as the Africans. Long SWHC and RGR
February 25, 2009
Long Smith & Wesson Holding (SWHC). Top Ten Story: Guns and the Constitution: A legislator finally gets it
February 17, 2009
WARNING: The government may end this trade with legislation on a whim or by taxation.