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alstry (< 20)

When will they call it a DEPRESSION?



April 22, 2009 – Comments (15)

Its getting a little old hearing the same old recession is a story from the WSJ today:

Europe's economy faces a deeper recession and a slower recovery than the U.S. or other world regions. As a result, the European Union is becoming the region that is most hurting prospects for an early end to the global economic slump.

The EU's economy is set to contract 4% this year and an additional 0.3% next year, according to new forecasts published Wednesday by the International Monetary Fund. That's even worse than the outlook for the U.S. economy, which the IMF says will shrink 2.8% this year and stagnate in 2010.

Seriously, who is kidding who????

In Japan, exports are down 50% and imports are down not much less.  Factories are running at half capacity and in a country where you have a job for life, many lives are being cut short as workers are getting fired by the thousands from company after company.

Factory after factory operating at 50% capacity is not a recession, it is a DEPRESSION....and a catastrophic one at that with the entire nations exports DOWN 50% for an export based economy.........

In America, new  home sales  are down 75% from peak, auto sales down 50%, Pre Clinton era revision unemployment numbers approaching 20%, Home Forclosures at record rates and climbing, and bank after bank facing significant detioration in their loan portfolios.........

You think this is a think our GDP is down only a few percentage points with this kind of think that business after business suffering double digit sales declines thinks GDP is down only a few percentage points??? you think city after city, state afer state, and the Federal Government suffering double digit tax revenue declines thinks GDP is  down  only a few percentage points??????

And Europe worse than here?????

This is no recession folks........this is a depression and with the current policies of funding insolvent  banks.....welcome to Zombie wonder Ghoser is ready to rock n roll.

In America, auto sales are down 5

15 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 22, 2009 at 7:39 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

GM's CFO said the company doesn't plan to make a $1 billion debt payment due June 1 and is relying on either a debt-for-equity exchange or court protection.

GM will idle most of its U.S. plants for up to 9 weeks because of diving sales and growing inventories, The Associated Press reported late Wednesday, citing two sources briefed on the plans. The shutdowns are expected to coincide with GM's normal two-week closure in July, according to the AP.

9 WEEKS....w/o pay for thousands upon thousands upon thousands upon thousands of workers........a BIG FU virus injection if I have ever seen one.....and you call this a recession???  Company after company cutting workforces by 10% or more and you call this a recession???  Even more cutting wages of entire workforces and you call this a recession????

As we morph from zombie banks and move closer to Zombie Nation......the  music will  likely get louder.

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#2) On April 22, 2009 at 7:47 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:


“That trend is happening in lots of businesses - and a steady slide of tumbling prices is already translating into lost jobs and failing companies. Deflation is when prices fall, and keep falling, so that businesses’ revenue drops and owners start cutting operations and laying off people. Because falling prices still aren’t boosting sales, Weyerhaeuser Co. shut 12 Southern sawmills at the end of March. International Paper will close its lumber mill in Franklin at the end of May, idling 123 workers. Announcements of closings and cutbacks at Southern mills are routine these days, Cox said.”

“‘Mills that used to operate 24/7, three shifts, are now barely working one shift,’ he said. ‘It’s like a week doesn’t go by without some announcement a mill is shuttering.’”

“He said mills regularly call to tell him to cut prices to try to move more lumber. When consumers feel there is always a discount available, marking down prices won’t help much, said David J. Urban, a professor of marketing at Virginia Commonwealth University. When consumers ‘hear the same message over and over again, after a while, they begin to ask when is a sale a sale,’ he said.”


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#3) On April 22, 2009 at 8:09 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

The TRILLIONS are just beginning to roll................

The subsidies were part of the stimulus package passed by Congress earlier this year and were intended to ease the financial burden on states and local governments while spurring new spending.

"Even if the president comes up with $1 trillion of stimulus to states and municipalities, that won't cover 100% of everyone's needs or solve all their problems," said Eric Dinallo, New York State's insurance superintendent, in a recent interview.

I agree.....the private citizens need many many trillions to pay off debt and meet monthly expenses....the state and local governments need over a trillion just to maintain budget.....the federal government is now tracking over 2 Trillion dollar deficit and growing

Unless the debt gets restructured...we become Zombie Nation as wages fall and debt rises......

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#4) On April 22, 2009 at 8:19 PM, foolsMeThrice (99.46) wrote:

We've had it good for quite a while.  Time for the us to get back to reality.

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#5) On April 22, 2009 at 8:21 PM, Varchild2008 (84.42) wrote:

I'll trade you my debt for some of yours?  What?  Never heard of the collectible debt game known as from Mattel?

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#6) On April 22, 2009 at 8:24 PM, SolarisKing (< 20) wrote:

Yahoo announces today to lay off 700 workers.

The NEW finacial officer for Freddie Mac is found dead in his home of "apparent suicide". Now that's fertile ground for conspiracy thought.

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#7) On April 22, 2009 at 8:49 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

Here is the problem...right now there is simply too much debt to pay back and creating new debt only makes a bad problem worse......MUCH WORSE

We are rapidly approaching the point where debts start defaulting at such a rate that the economic deterioration becomes so acute things simply pretty much come to a grinding the entire auto industry, credit card industry, commercial RE industry etc......unless we restructure debt,

My guess is government will never allow that to happen and a diversion will be created or imposed upon us to change our perspective from being inward to outward.......the easiest solution.......a the only questions are where and when and against we continue down this path of increasing defaults the liklihood of conflict only becomes greater.

This issue is a world wide if there is a war......naturally it would be a world wide war....but who knows at this point.

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#8) On April 22, 2009 at 9:22 PM, Mcguf (55.60) wrote:

"Its getting a little old hearing the same old recession nonsense....."

Replace the word recession with depression in the above statement and it becomes very fitting in regards to many CAPS players blogs.

Have you considered putting down the newspaper and turning off the tv and computer for a while? Then you wouldn't have to listen to, read or watch it. Or do you feel the need to stay tuned so you can create a new blog post for every company and corner store announcing a layoff?

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#9) On April 22, 2009 at 10:11 PM, dwot (29.27) wrote:

On paying back debt, I think it was 12% of "deposits" in the bank that ended up not being repaid during the depression.

This bubble is bigger and lending standards were strong before the depression compared to what happened to lending standards this round.

Look at all the mortgages being rewritten with loan forgiveness.  Debt is already not being paid back.

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#10) On April 22, 2009 at 10:43 PM, abitare (30.26) wrote:


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#11) On April 22, 2009 at 11:06 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

This could be HUGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

From tonight's WSJ:

As the country's biggest health insurers report their first-quarter earnings, the record number of members they are losing to unemployment is another ominous sign that the ranks of uninsured Americans have soared since the recession's onset.

The latest indicator came from WellPoint Inc., the country's largest health insurer with nearly 35 million medical-plan members, which reported a 1.3% drop in first-quarter net income. The insurer said it shed nearly 500,000 net members since the end of December.

While WellPoint had factored in a large decline, it said it was surprised by the nearly 325,000 members it lost to layoffs or workers otherwise opting out of employer coverage.


This is consistent with the info I am getting from my contacts in the industry.  The evidence for Zombie Nation keeps pouring in........that is what happens when you apply a zombie banks policy.

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#12) On April 23, 2009 at 4:10 AM, minduza (< 20) wrote:

alstry, this is investors community so every time you write the world goes down ( I mostly agree with that) share you view how we can make money out of that. Otherwise it's just pure pessimism porn.

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#13) On April 23, 2009 at 10:41 AM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

I'm depressed.  The constant hammering of the 'prepare, don't fear' is getting to me.  The thing is, I GET IT ALREADY!!!!!!!! This is causing my IBS to really become a pain in the @$$.

Now, to relate this to caps bloggers I will admit to all that I'm playing FAZ and FAS off of each other with real money.  Very short term.  It's not hard.  Yes, I understand they are risky, but once I got past the fear, the trading of these two is part of my 'prepare'

 Alstry has good intentions when it comes to spreading the word - if I were close to Alstry I would recommend that he "forgive them, they know not what they do" and go on his way, taking care of himself and those close to him.   I make the recommendation out of concern for Altry's physical and mental well being.  Worrying about the world will get you crucified... AND it causes severe indigestion.

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#14) On April 23, 2009 at 11:47 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:


I just had a similar conversaton with my accountant who made seven figures last year shorting the market in part by reading my blog.

I think by nature I am a caring person.  It is why I bacame a lawyer....I get a rise out of helping the underdog.

That said, this is simply not an other person's problem.  IT IS ALL OF OUR PROBLEMS.

We all live in a system, and that system is the US economy and the United States of America.  There are lots of subsystems in that bigger cities, states, counties, hospitals, and schools etc......

The problem now is that the US system is now infected with the FU virus...the system that holds all other systems.  Sorta like if you were a passenger on the titanic and you were up on the top deck listening to the music when the boat sprung a leak in steerage.....

Even though you may not notice anything for the first few hours, I a relatively short periord of time you will be swimming in the ICE COLD waters just like everyone else.....unless you PREPARE!!!!

The boat now has a BIG gash in the hull....that is all.

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#15) On April 23, 2009 at 6:04 PM, bullnada (< 20) wrote:


I enjoy your blogs a great deal. I think in the future you may be the #1 caps player.

Could you please tell us how alsty has prepared? Yes I know pay down debt, keep your job, etc.

How has alstry prepared and for what kind of world we are preparing for. Do you have guns,$23,000,000 in your bed, a bunker,seeds, 5 acre garden, battle training????

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