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alstry (35.76)

Where Are We BEFORE 9.09

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19

August 15, 2009 – Comments (13)

The FDIC is basically out of money

1 out of 8 residential mortgages are in default

Trucking revenues shrinking as less and less shipped

Obama is spending over $2 Trillion he doesn't have

We just witnessed the LARGEST bank failure of the year

Tens of millions of Americans are unemployed or suffering MASSIVE wage losses

Bankruptcies are exploding

Municipalities are witnesses evaporation of tax revenues

Many hospitals are laying off workers

School Districts are running out of funds

Private Businesses are shutting down across America

Commercial Vacancies are skyrocketing

Commercial Real Estate Values are crashing at unprecedented rates

Imports and exports are evaporating

Retail sales are contracting

And we havn't even hit 9.09 yet......

Can you imagine what will happen when Obama has to tell the nation we have to be responsible for our spending and really make some serious cuts?

Could we see millions in food lines if Obama stops borrowing...or will we see something else first?

13 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 15, 2009 at 5:02 PM, dudemonkey (58.51) wrote:

So ... I guess you're not seeing green shoots.

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#2) On August 15, 2009 at 5:16 PM, whereaminow (70.26) wrote:

I smell a bank holiday.

David in Qatar

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#3) On August 15, 2009 at 6:33 PM, janis1023 (< 20) wrote:

There is certainly a lot of truth to what you say, but

1)  how did you come up with 9.09? 

2)  if you are right, do you think we  will all be devastated and depressed but still take a minute to think Gee if only I had listened to Alstry?

 3) if you are wrong, do you think this will not impact your credibility?

 4)  By 9.09 are you giving yourself the whole month of Sept?  If so, can you be more specific? 

5)  If your prediction should take place on 8/31/09 or 10/01/09, will you still take credit for being right?

 Thanks.

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#4) On August 15, 2009 at 6:55 PM, cthomas1017 (38.79) wrote:

Janis,
Don't expect an answer to your questions.  For some reason, alstry never answers those types of questions.  I'll put on my alstry hat for the benefit of everyone who ever wondered about these questions...

1) This would appear to be alstry's first blog predicting 9.09 explicitly... http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=199508&t=01002130057764754273&source=isrsithln0000001

2) alstry's ego will be too large to fit thu the door if that happens.  (It's close to being to large even before his prediction.)

3) alstry doesn't care.

4) alstry's prediction was explicit in his first blog mentioned in #1 above - by the end of September.

5) alstry will take credit no matter what because alstry is always right.

No need to thanks, alstry.  I'm used to doing others' heavy lifting. ;)

CT! :)

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#5) On August 15, 2009 at 7:07 PM, alstry (35.76) wrote:

Janis,

If you were on a plane that was heading straight for the ground, and the pilot suddenly pushed the throttle foward as the passengers were cheering as laughing gas was dispensed.....

in the end, whether right or wrong about the timing of when the plane hits the ground, do you think Alstry even cares about acknowledgement.

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#6) On August 15, 2009 at 7:18 PM, AdirondackFund (< 20) wrote:

@ cthomas

Yes, the blog you refer to refers to the date 9/1999.  There is never any mention of 2009 anywhere in the blog.  Perhaps Alstry was implying that Bears would be 'partying like it's 1999'  in September.  But until Alstry actually tells us what 9.09 means....we will never know....just as the FED is doing with it's Accounting Practices and Fractional Reserve 'magical' balances machine.

It certainly seems like the right and appropriate and fair answer, doesn't it?  Or, are we to deal with Banks honestly as they fail to continue to return the favor...honestly, who is to believe their nonsense?     

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#7) On August 15, 2009 at 7:38 PM, alstry (35.76) wrote:

Ad,

What I find amazing is people's fixation on Alstry and not the problem as you describe.

People don't seem to care that insolvent bankers get billions in taxpayer bonuses while those without access to unlimited bailouts fail.

People are fixated on 9.09 and not the fact that America is heading on a similar path as 1920s Germany.

Few on this board even try to entertain a  solution yet complain about the facts.....

Why do you think the facts fail to disturb yet such a strong fixation on the messenger of the facts?

You would think the facts would be the focus...

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#8) On August 15, 2009 at 7:52 PM, alstry (35.76) wrote:

FACTS LIKE THIS.....

The Los Angeles Unified School District plans to sharply raise the property taxes of hundreds of thousands of L.A. homeowners because the recession has pushed down tax revenues needed to repay school bonds. The economic downturn has also caused a potential cash-flow crisis for the nation's largest school-construction program.

The district is allowed to raise taxes under little-known legal protections for bond holders. In essence, if revenues from property taxes can't cover installment payments for bond debt, L.A. Unified can raise tax rates, even if they rise above past projections.

The current rate is about $123 per $100,000 of assessed value. That's actually lower than the original projections, but the good news ends there.

Officials wouldn't reveal estimates for next year but, when pressed, said they expected rates above $200 by 2012. In an interview, L.A. schools Supt. Ramon C. Cortines mentioned a rate of $207, though he didn't specify the year.

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-lausd-bonds15-2009aug15,0,2216772.story

It has to be fun to be a politician when you can take as much money as you want from your constituents...even if they can't afford it.

Remember, the higher the property taxes, the lower the affordibility of a house forcing up the property taxes even further.

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#9) On August 15, 2009 at 8:08 PM, prose976 (< 20) wrote:

First of all, look who you're dealing with.  Alstry refers to him/herselft in third person.  Last person I knew who did that was "Jimmy" from Seinfeld.

Anyways, Alstry points to all the negatives in the global and national economies, and then gives a paper thin, obvious "solution," - restructure the debt.

What a cop out.  How are "we," meaning the people on these boards and those who also believe that debt "restructure" is necessary to straighten out this ride, going to actively "restructure" the global and national economies?  It's literally impossible, except through violent revoution.  Voting doesn't do the trick, so we're back to civil war - the "restructurists" vs. the "conformists" or socialists.

So, while Alstry is betting that at some point in the future the roosters will all come home, he doesn't really have anything valuable to offer any of us except entertainment and talking points.  He's got no real solution of "movement."  Just alot of options that are going to expire in September and a load of shorts that need to drop big time before he can make a buck.

For Alstry, it's not about helping or enriching fellow investors.  It's about spreading fear and loathing in order to get you all to dump your positions on the market to fulfill his prophecy.

Alstry is in the midst of an experiment, and he may even have some big side bets out there that his doomsaying will have a particular effect on the market. 

He's really pushing this September date.  That's a mighty big matzoh ball hanging out there.  If the day comes and goes without his full "prophecy" coming true, then his possibility for returns on his bets diminishes as the days pass, until he loses the opportunity for any gains (bets or investments).

However, if he can get enough of you worked up that you'll actually follow through, then he will have successfully used the power of social networking to accomplish his goal.

Alstry is not here to help anyone, folks.  He is not offering anything new that cannot be found by any of us with a little effort.  He is not an insider.  He has no special knowledge or power, or ability to divine anything.

Alstry is an antagonist.  A charlatan.  A self-interested opportunist.  He sees an opportunity to cash in (otherwise why would he be posting this on the Fool - and probably on other investing and social sites)?

But, indeed, I will offer you all something you can actually DO.

1.  visit www.obamacrimes.com and take action.

2.  visit http://washingtonindependent.com/39107/tea-party-iii-march-on-washington and participate in either a local or the Washington Tax Tea Party.

3.  Vote all elected officials out of office at the next election.  Find out who is on the ballot, find out which of them voted in any of the Stimulus nonsense, who supported the fraud (at any point), who is pushing for more money and health care reform and make sure they don't get re-elected.

There.  I'm not Alstry, but I have provided everyone with something that Alstry, in the volumes of his repetitive drivel has not been able to provide...ways you can change the course that our government is taking.

I'd love to hear from you all.

Have a great weekend.

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#10) On August 15, 2009 at 8:43 PM, janis1023 (< 20) wrote:

You know Dr. Phil says you teach people how to treat you. 

 We have taught the banks that they can change a credit card agreement anytime they want, ease the payment due date back a few days each month, incease your minimum pmt or stall on posting your payment so  that eventually you'll have a late payment and they will hit you for a 35.00 to 50.00 late fee, then double or triple your interest rate, suddenly reducing your credit limit causing you to exceed your limit and make you pay the difference plus a fee for exceeding your credit limit.

 We put up with this because we are all scared to death our credit score will go down. 

 I submit that they need us more than we need them.

 We the people should give them a list of demands for the rules, set a deadline, and if they won't change their ways WE ALL STOP PAYING THEM!

 If they agee to our terms and forgive the interim period of our protest, we begin to make payments again under our terms.

If they refuse, they are out of the credit card business.

 If all people have a bad credit score and they refuse to give us a credit card, then fine, they are out of business.  Additional benefit, insurance companies could no longer use our credit score to rate customers because everyone's is bad, putting us all on equal footing.  They would have to find another way.

Much like the bus boycot the blacks used in order to gain more rights, we could find out who needs who the most.

You remember the golden rule:  he who has the gold makes the rules.  That's because we let them.

 We the people could form our own lending groups by pooling funds, paying interest on deposits with the interest on the payments being made, with payment interest being slightly higher to cover operationing costs.  Credit unions kind of operate this way, so we know the model works.

 Just some thoughts.  But we have got to find a way to get power back to the people.

When we have a government letting people go homeless thru foreclosure yet give billions of our tax money to the banks forclosing on them, something is real wrong!

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#11) On August 15, 2009 at 9:31 PM, alstry (35.76) wrote:

It is good to see some CAPS members getting a pulse....it's about time as we approach 9.09.

See I knew it would happenn by 9.09.....it's starting to happen now.

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#12) On August 15, 2009 at 10:05 PM, Eudemonic (68.50) wrote:

How do current California tax rates compare with tax rates in the days leading to Prop 18? Will we be seeing another Prop 18 revolt again in California?

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#13) On August 15, 2009 at 10:20 PM, alstry (35.76) wrote:

Unless we restructure debt....you will be seeing lots of revolts in California.....

Starting with prison guest revolts who are released from jail with little prospect for employment....they may want to go back in where they got food, clothing and shelter accompanied by a small income.

Higher sales tax revolts, income tax revolts, less services revolts etc....

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