Use access key #2 to skip to page content.

jiltin (28.65)

Where are we heading? It looks like year 2000

Recs

5

May 17, 2013 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: RGSE

I have seen two economic cycles, dot.com and subprime. Even though I am optimistic about US growth by middle or 2014 or end of 2014, Today RSOL stock jump 129% is very disturbing signal. Along with  crazy recovery of real estate.

Here are the facts I gathered.

RSOL yesterday close:$1.75 , Today Close: $4.07, Simple jump of 129% and after market positive 1% jump.

See the results

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/real-goods-solar-reports-first-200000081.html

Total revenue for the first quarter of 2013 decreased 8% to $16.8 million, as compared to $18.3 million in the same quarter last year. 

Gross profit was $4.6 million or 27.4% of net revenue in the first quarter of 2013, compared to $6.4 million or 35.2% of net revenue in the same quarter last year. 

Net loss for the first quarter of 2013 was $3.8 million or $(0.14) per share, compared to net loss of $1.9 million or $(0.07) per share in the same quarter last year.

This was the same scenario I had witnessed during dot.com

VA Linux Registers A 698% Price Pop 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB944749135343802895-search.html

VA Linux Rockets 698%

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-500609_162-74049.html 

This start of the craziness, but not the end. 

Is there any missing point I have? Any real good news behind the 129% jump of RSOL.

 Am I right or wrong? 

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 17, 2013 at 6:42 PM, TMFBlacknGold (98.68) wrote:

I would wonder if fellow solar installer SolarCity's news had anything to do with it (the financing shouldn't matter for either, really). Also, the Black Death of financial websites Seeking Alpha published a new blog on the company this morning: 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1443151-a-hidden-gem-in-the-solar-industry

--Maxxwell 

Report this comment
#2) On May 17, 2013 at 9:20 PM, jiltin (28.65) wrote:

I read this link previously too. Solarcity is fine as long term investment. I still own some stocks and it appreciated 88% within a month. Even though SCTY results were not inline with wallstreet expectation, it went up due to Musk name and TSLA doing great. Musk is trying to introduce challenging technologies and succeed with such technologies. 

However, RSOL does not have any such backup or well known people. 

Report this comment
#3) On May 18, 2013 at 3:32 PM, jiltin (28.65) wrote:

Looks like this is the sensational news

 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/real-goods-solar-power-18-123100737.html

Order book increasing.

However, stockton is a city filed bankruptcy or bankruptcy protection. This is the worst affected place due to subprime. It is coming up recently due to economic recovery. 

Does this deserve 129% price increase?  If that makes the company from loss to gain side, looks like good bet for day trading.

Report this comment
#4) On May 19, 2013 at 1:00 PM, valuemoney (99.99) wrote:

This looks nothing like the year 2000. Here is the price and the multiple the S&P would have to trade at to = the 2000 bubble. S&P earnings were $56.13 in 2000. The market traded at a peak of 1552. Earnings on the S&P for 2012 are roughly $102 so to = the peak in 2000 the S&P would have to trade at 2820 this year to be similar. That is a 69% gain from current levels. Hardly 2000 levels. Trailing earnings multiple is only 16.34 which is hardly expensive by any means plus the fact that the ten year gives you a yield of less than 2% make me rather be in the market. Cash is even worse unless you don't think there will be inflation in the next ten years. Highly unlikely with all the printing of money. Granted at todays prices the yield on the S&P isn't great but considering the alternatives it isn't bad. Well good look.

Report this comment
#5) On May 19, 2013 at 1:06 PM, valuemoney (99.99) wrote:

S&P earnings history and prices and dividends and earnings yield.

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/spearn.htm

Report this comment
#6) On May 19, 2013 at 1:13 PM, valuemoney (99.99) wrote:

You might be right on the RSOL call. Just saying it isn't comparable to 2000 just because a couple stocks are mispriced.

Report this comment

Featured Broker Partners


Advertisement