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TMFBro (< 20)

Where we will be 10 years from now

Recs

10

August 12, 2009 – Comments (2)

In an article I wrote for Fool.com, I point out:

"According to Ibbotson Associates, of the 74 rolling 10-year periods since 1926 (i.e., 1926-1935, 1927-1936, and so on), U.S. large-cap stocks posted negative returns in just three of them. The first two were 1929-1938 (-0.89% compound annual return) and 1930-1939 (-0.05% compound annual return) and involved the Depression. The third loser decade was the most recent -- and the worst. From 1999-2008, U.S. large-cap stocks 'returned' a compound annual average of negative 1.38%. Who would have thought back in 1999, when we were more worried about Y2K than our 401(k), that in the subsequent decade big-name American stocks would do worse than they did in the 1930s? Not many."

 

Channeling Peter Bernstein, the author of Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk (whom I wrote about in this article), risk is the possibility that bad possibilities we know about become realities, but also that the future will include events that we're not even considering right now. 

My wife and I often talk about how our lives have turned out much differently than we expected even five years ago, and certainly 10 years ago. It brings a certain humility to any attempt to predict the future (which, to some extent, is what investing is all about). That said...

I thought I'd have some fun and make some guesses about where we'll be 10 years from now. Feel free to add your own in the comments area below. 

So, here are my predictions for 2019:

*The S&P 500 will be at 2,000 or a tad below
*The rate on the 10-year Treasury will be 8%
*Gary Coleman will finally get elected governor of California
*The eligibility age for Social Security will be increased to 70 for those 50 and under
*Something everyone expects but won't happen: China won't quite be the dominant player people expect due to internal unrest (central government vs. democracy movement, uneven distribution of prosperity, etc.)
*My children will still believe in Santa Claus, despite being teenagers
*Something everyone expects that will happen: Taxes will increase (OK, that one's easy)
*A Republican will be president, but it won't be Sarah Palin or Larry Craig (to see my Craig costume in the Washigton Post, click here and scroll down)
*We will talk about Facebook and YouTube the way today we talk about Netscape and Britney Spears
*All my hair will grow back (a guy can dream)

OK, your turn.

To read two articles I've written, sorta on this topic, check out "It's Already Worse Than the Depression" and "Diversification Isn't Dead."

Robert Brokamp is the senior advisor for The Motley Fool's Rule Your Retirement service. 

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 12, 2009 at 4:57 PM, madcowmonkey (< 20) wrote:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LcGBM2RzTHo

So I am guessing that it will not matter unless we supply the serpant gods enough gold in 2012, but don't take my word for it:)

My predictions:

before 2019, we will see the rise and fall of China. It has been a long road for that group, but it will end violently for them.

before 2019, we will see the S&P above 2,000 and closer to 3,000.

before 2019, computers will hover just like cars were suppose to do beore the millenium:) I am guessing it will help with cooling and carpel tunnel.

before 2019, touchscreen will fade into the background and we will no longer have to touch the screen, but just inject a usb cable into our abdomin and think about what we want the device to do.....of course there will be certain restrictions on capabilities, so don't get any sick ideas.

before 2019, TMF's mutual fund will demolish all expectations and beat the S&P by a couple thousand percentile points.

before 2019, Hamburgers will be more than 89 cents.

before 2019, gold will be in the 5,000 USD range.

before 2019, GS will be cremated and discarded.

before 2019, there will be a national pooh stick race on the nile. i will be there for it.

before 2019, the populations of the world will hinder growth of all nations, except the US which has the natural resources to handle it. But this will cause a mass migration that will overshadow the last 100 years of migrating immigrants.

before 2019, binve will post over 5 million "I am calling a top" posts:) I say this, because I think he could be one of few to laugh at that in fun.

before 2019, the detroit lions will win a superbowl. I am stretching on this one...it could be 2029 or later.

before 2019, McDonalds will run out of commercial space to open up new franchises and will begin opening up in pet stores....for convenience.

before 2019, Florida and California will see another real estate boom. Michigan will still be struggling, because Madcow lives there.

before 2019, Motleyanimal will make a comic debut on HBO witlh eldemonio and will blow away the stand up act by Eddie Murphy. Both, animal and eld will be in matching purple and pink leather pants and jacket.

before 2019, I will witness an epidemic of skinny people running around in Michigan and nobody will be able to find out why, because all the lights will be out.

before 2019, Ford will be the only American made automobile and it will be better then all foreign competitors.

before 2019, they will get rid of the law that you must be 21 to drink and 18 to vote. It will just be 18 for everything.

before 2019, 2018 will come.

I am pretty sure I am right on at least one of those. Not sure which one. Again, don't take my word for it.

 

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#2) On August 12, 2009 at 5:02 PM, madcowmonkey (< 20) wrote:

One thing I wouldn't mind seeing before 2012 is a way to keep track of all my receipts on my iPhone. No more paper in my pockets from months back, just emails which get put right into accounting software without anything done by me, except holding my phone in the air and saying "smackalatashmichmuck" while spinning in circles five time. Not asking too much, but it sure would be nice:)

 

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