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Which Will Be First - Dow 11,000 or Dow 13,000?

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March 04, 2008 – Comments (8)

When the Dow first hit 13,000, on its way to pass 14,000 (not the way down) surveys started showing up asking which would show up first Dow 12,000 or 14,000.  At the time I was seeing the serious problems with the economy and never dreamed the Dow would hit 14,000, so I picked 12,000.

Then the Dow did hit 14,000 and again there were the surveys, this time 13,000 to 15,000...

Well, the Dow is close enough to 12,000 to ask what investors think, which will we see first, Dow 11,000 or Dow 13,000?

I think 11,000. 

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 04, 2008 at 8:25 PM, AnomaLee (28.88) wrote:

I remember those surveys. If the the DJIA would've hit 15,000 or the S&P 1,600 would've signficantly trimmed my long-term holdings.

I usually don't buck trends, and I follow long-term trends until they break. I made most of my gains of 2007 during the dips in September and made some hefty gains in March even though my short-term trade weighting makes up less than 40% of my portfolio because there was still mood support for that trend.

I don't think the DJIA is  going to 11,000 in the next few weeks, so I'd bet 13,000 short-term because we've already came close to that number in a few trading sessions and because I believe all the 'expert' money managers on Wall Street are stupid.

Beyond that I think nearing 11,000 is just as possible as 13,000. We've escaped the bull run and we've been trading in a range, but I do think the odds are likely that we'll break below 12,000 and closer to 11,000

Maybe not the answer but my 2 cents....

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#2) On March 04, 2008 at 8:54 PM, QualityPicks (54.81) wrote:

http://www.vizu.com" target="_blank">Opinion Polls & http://answers.vizu.com/market-research.htm" target="_blank">Market Research
http://wp.vizu.com/vizu_poll.swf" quality="high" scale="noscale" wmode="transparent" bgcolor="#ffffff" width="160" height="240" name="vizu_poll" align="middle" allowScriptAccess="always" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" FlashVars="js=false&pid=79645&ad=false&vizu=true&links=true&mainBG=000000&questionText=FFFFFF&answerZoneBG=EEEEEE&answerItemBG=FFFFFF&answerText=000000&voteBG=C8C8C8&voteText=000000">

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#3) On March 04, 2008 at 8:55 PM, QualityPicks (54.81) wrote:

Hmm, I gues I don't know how to embed these things. I should ask Seth :)

Vote here

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#4) On March 04, 2008 at 9:25 PM, QualityPicks (54.81) wrote:

Got it:

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#5) On March 04, 2008 at 9:28 PM, Imperial1964 (97.93) wrote:

I'm watching the S&P more than the Dow.  I'm looking for 1250 in the next month or two, and maybe 1100 within six months.

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#6) On March 04, 2008 at 10:03 PM, GS751 (27.55) wrote:

I'll never forget Cramer Yelling, The dow is going to hit 15,000.  I just started laughing

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#7) On March 04, 2008 at 10:40 PM, EScroogeJr (< 20) wrote:

Dow 14000 :):):)

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#8) On March 04, 2008 at 10:51 PM, Ozcutty (55.05) wrote:

Short term, the long awaited bond rescue will push us to 13k first. 

After that, it all depends on next quarter results from the big financials. The market wants to see the light at the end of the tunnel. If for instance, Citigroup were to write off 20 billion and say their exposure was now nil thats it, the market would go on a powerful rally and who knows where it would end up 14-5k+

If on the other hand nothing is resolved and all this stuff lingers, the market will stay in a range and possibly slip lower towards 11k.

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